This is going to be the most interesting draft for the Calgary Flames in recent memory. Not since 2013 have the Flames had multiple first-round picks, and that was a draft to forget. With at least two picks in the first round and rumours of them potentially acquiring a third in a trade for Jacob Markstrom, the Flames are going to be the team to watch at this year’s draft.
Looking back since 2000, the Flames have been reasonably consistent in their draft strategy, with some nuances depending on who was the GM at the time. There are some leagues that the team has consistently picked from and some that they have shied away from year after year. Let’s take a look at the team’s draft history.
Breaking down the history of the Flames’ drafting since 2001
To make it easy, I have put together this graph of all of the draft picks that the team has made since 2001.
The Flames like the CHL
Looking at the graph, the Flames have been big fans of the WHL. Since 2001, they have drafted from this league every single year except for 2002 and have done very well in selecting from that league. Two of their most recent first-round picks—Connor Zary and Samuel Honzek—were both taken from the WHL, as well as a smattering of other successful players such as Micheal Ferland, Lance Bouma, Dion Phaneuf.
On top of that, they have been very keen to take players from the two other CHL leagues, the OHL and QMJHL. Aside from 2020 and 2021, they have only ever taken one player per year from the QMJHL per season. However, they have gone all over the place with the OHL, taking three a year in 2015 and 2016, but then none in 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023.
Fewer picks from American leagues
South of the border, the Flames have been generally hesitant to take from any of the American leagues relative to other teams. Since 2015, they have taken just nine players from the US. Of those nine, however, four were Europeans playing in the league as opposed to American-born players. The other five were Matt Coronato, who the Flames had spoken with to ensure he would sign with the Flames, Mitchell Mattson and Adam Fox, who were both expected to go in the first round and dropped to the Flames, Jake Boltmann, who was loved by the team’s local scout, and Demetrios Koumontzis.
After the Adam Fox disaster, the Flames have been hesitant to select American-born skaters going to the NCAA. They have however taken chances on Canadian players in the CJHL leagues like the BCHL who then went to college in the US. They are seeing that decision pay dividends in Aydar Suniev, who had a great season this past year at UMass.
Steady picks from Europe
Across the pond, the Flames went through a Russian phase in the early 2000s, but that very quickly fell off. They haven’t been great with Russians of late, with Daniil Chechelev and Ilya Nikolayev not really panning out to this point. Yegor Yegorov is in the system as well, but he too seems like a long shot.
Sweden and Finland have been happier spots for the Flames to draft from, but they tend to prefer European skaters who developed this side of the pond or to bring them over early to grow in the North American systems. Rasmus Andersson, Juuso Valimaki, Sven Baertschi and others were all drafted as North Americans despite being born and raised in Northern Europe. The two big exceptions to this were Oliver Kylington and Mikael Backlund, who were selected out of Sweden and turned into big-name players for the team.
First-round picks
Unsurprisingly, the Flames love the WHL for their first-round picks. Whether that is based on proximity to the league, the general playstyle of the league, or something else, the team keeps going back to the Western Hockey well for their first-round selections.
This league has been more miss than hit for the Flames. Leaving Connor Zary and Samuel Honzek out simply due to their limited NHL experience so far, their last two real WHL picks have had fine NHL careers so far. Valimaki was never the stud defenceman that the Flames expected that they had and Baertschi was a fine depth guy. Leland Irving simply did not turn into anything at the NHL level.
The only player who did pan out was Phaneuf, who was outstanding in Calgary until he was unceremoniously traded away to Toronto for Matt Stajan and other depth pieces.
Not far behind is the OHL, which has been an outstanding development league for years. The Flames have made just a couple fewer selections in the first round from there than from the WHL.
However, of their five selections, not one remained with the team for their best years. Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk are in the Stanely Cup Final with the Florida Panthers, Sean Monahan spent this season with the Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens, while Matt Pelech and Greg Nemisz played 28 combined NHL games and had five combined NHL points.
Surprisingly, both the Flames’ picks from the NCAA worked out wonderfully. Chuck Kobasew and Eric Nystrom both played over 500 NHL games, and Kobasew was a major part of the 2004 Cup run team. Nystrom ended up being more of a depth player than a 10th overall pick should have been, but to hit nearly 600 NHL games is no small feat.
If there is one lesson from this very small sample size, it’s that taking a first-round pick from Canada outside the CHL has not been good for the Flames. mark Jankowski is a serviceable 12th forward in the NHL, but that’s not what you want from a first-round pick. The other player that the team took in the first was Kris Chucko from the BCHL in 2004. He played just two NHL games. Cory Schneider was taken just two picks later by Vancouver, and would have solved the team’s goalie needs post Miikka Kiprusoff.
What to expect in 2024
The Flames walk into this draft with nine picks, eight of which are in the first four rounds. How the Flames select is going to be really interesting, but you can almost bet that at least one, but likely two of the picks, will come from the WHL. Berkly Catton, Carter Yakemchuk, or Tij Iginla are likely very high on the Flames board for their first selection in the draft. However, there are also Andrew Basha, Ryder Ritchie, Terik Parascak, Charlie Elick, and more who could go with their second pick that round.
You can also probably bet that one or two players will come from the OHL. Zayne Parekh, Liam Greentree, and Beckett Sennecke are all likely names that the Flames could shoot for in the first round.
Water is wet, the sky is blue, and the Flames will almost certainly make a pick from the QMJHL too. There aren’t many players who are likely to go from the Q early this year, but one name to keep an eye out for is Maxim Masse, who could drop to the second or third round. Defenceman Tomas Lavoie is another name that should hear his name called on day two of the draft.
The Flames likely don’t go to the US for their first-round selection unless they feel certain that the player they pick will sign with Calgary. If they do, Zeev Buium is a guy to watch in the first round. Canadians Sacha Boisvert or Michael Hage could also be someone that they look at with their second or third picks.
Calgary needs a strong draft
This is one of the toughest drafts to predict, not only because of how much of a craps shoot the first round looks to be beyond the first overall pick but also because this is the first draft truly in charge for GM Craig Conroy.
Unlike the past decade or so under Brad Treliving, there is no data to look back on to say what he will want to draft for. The good news is that the Flames’ scouting department is mostly the same, and they have been consistent in their evaluation of late, which should help the Flames decide who to select in the draft.
There is so much to get excited about in the draft this year. We’re just a couple of weeks away!
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