For the Calgary Flames, things were looking up on Sunday, as both the Winnipeg Jets and Nashville Predators dropped their games. Yes, one of the Flames’ best days of the season came on a day they did not play. There is one wild card spot left for these three teams to fight for.
Winnipeg is the incumbent, with 81 points in 71 games, while the Predators sit at 76 points with 68 games played. The Predators have an absolutely gruesome schedule remaining, while the Flames and Jets have relatively easy schedules. But as we’ve seen all season, it doesn’t matter who the Flames opponent is, as they have routinely lost to teams they shouldn’t.
Going into their matchup against the Kings on Monday night, the Flames were only four points behind the Jets, with a game at hand (77 points in 70 games). That was the closest the Flames have been to getting into a playoff position in quite some time, so fans were excited. But, the Flames dropped an absolute dumpster fire on Monday night, and you “8–2” see that. I’ll see myself out.
What the playoff models are saying about Calgary
Every game matters right now for this Flames team. This is demonstrated exceptionally well with the chart below, courtesy of HockeyViz.com. If you not already a subscriber to HockeyViz, I cannot recommend it enough.
As seen on the chart, Calgary sat at 20% odds to make the playoffs before their game against the Kings on Monday night. If they wins, their odds would have jumped to 27%. But if they lose, their odds fall by 7% all the way down to 13%. Well, the Flames lost. Even worse, the Jets’ playoff odds jumped from 63% to 66% after Calgary’s loss last night.
The Athletics’ Dom Luszczyszyn tweeted out the results of his model after the Flames loss. They fall 10%, to only a 21% chance at making it. Winnipeg also jumps up 5% to a 71% overall.
Time is running out for the Flames
With only eleven games left this season, there are only twenty-two possible points left for this Flames group. They are right back to it tonight against the Ducks, so we will if they can get revenge on an Anaheim team that embarrassed them last week. The April 5 matchup against the Jets is going to be a bonkers game by the looks of things.
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