Flames fans are still not over the 2026 NHL draft lottery outcome. In fact, they may not be until next year’s lottery draw goes down. In losing the 2026 lottery while also moving down to sixth overall, the Flames have found themselves once again drafting outside the top five. They will continue forward with just one single top-five pick in franchise history for the time being. For a team desperate for high-end talent, a top-five selection at next year’s 2027 draft has officially become a necessity.
Successful rebuilds are built with high picks
There’s no doubt the Flames are in a full-on rebuild. They’ve traded multiple veterans, have cleared cap space off the books, and have embraced the tank. The only thing missing from their rebuild now is the most important piece: a top-five selection in the draft. Make no mistake, virtually every single successful rebuild has required at least one, if not multiple, top-five picks. Sure, there are outliers, but almost every single rebuild has lived and died with how they fare at the top of the NHL draft.
| Year | Stanley Cup Final Teams | Homegrown top 5 picks |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida, Edmonton | FLA (2), EDM (3) |
| 2024 | Florida, Edmonton | FLA (2), EDM (3) |
| 2023 | Vegas, Florida | VGK (0), FLA (2) |
| 2022 | Colorado, Tampa Bay | COL (4), TBL (2) |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay, Dallas | TBL (2), DAL (1) |
| 2019 | St. Louis, Boston | STL (1), BOS (0) |
| 2018 | Washington, Vegas | WSH (2), VGK (0) |
| 2017 | Pittsburgh, Nashville | PIT (3), NSH (0) |
| 2016 | Pittsburgh, San Jose | PIT (3), SJS (1) |
Over the last 10 years of Stanley Cup Finals, top-five picks have almost always been represented by both squads in the final. Only four of a total 20 teams did not have at least one homegrown top-five pick on their team. Those teams are the 2017 Predators, the 2018 Golden Knights, the 2019 Bruins, and the 2023 Golden Knights. It’s worth noting that of those four teams, only one of them actually went on to win the Stanley Cup. That team, of course, being the 2023 Vegas squad. It’s also worth noting that the Golden Knights are a massive outlier given their roster construction through expansion, and the huge advantage they have in drawing elite talent to their team given where they play.
Stanley Cup Champs are built with top-five picks
Outside of those four teams, the remaining 16 teams all had homegrown top-five picks on their roster, with most having multiple. In fact, nine of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions had at least one homegrown top-five pick in their lineup. Seven of those eventual champs had more than one homegrown top-five pick.
Outside of the outlier that is the 2023 Vegas Golden Knights, you’d have to go all the way back to the 2008 Detroit Red Wings to find that last example of a Stanley Cup champion with no homegrown top-five picks. That’s 18 years ago, and during an era when NHL scouting was still incredibly random, and you could find players like Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk at the end of the draft. Those days are long gone, meaning top-five selections are even more important now.
2027 may be their final chance
While the Flames officially started their full teardown rebuild this year, they’ve been slowly rebuilding for years now thanks to several high-profile free agents wanting out. The Flames began gutting their roster of key veterans like Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, and Chris Tanev starting in 2024. While they didn’t officially commit to a rebuild until this season, they were forced into starting one long ago. For that reason, they had already built up a solid stable of young NHL talent before this season.
Not an ordinary rebuild
This isn’t a situation like the Blackhawks or Sharks, where the roster is torn to the studs all within a year and then has four or five seasons at the bottom of the league. The Flames have been tearing this down slowly for years now, and their window to finish in the bottom of the league is coming to a close sooner rather than later because of that. For that reason, the 2026-27 season may be their final opportunity to truly bottom out and land a top-five pick. Here’s how old some key prospects and young players will be for the Flames at the beginning of the 2027-28 season.
| Player | Age in Fall 2027 |
|---|---|
| Zayne Parekh | 21 |
| Matt Coronato | 25 |
| Dustin Wolf | 26 |
| Kevin Bahl | 27 |
| Matvei Gridin | 21 |
| Hunter Brzustewicz | 23 |
| Cole Reschny | 20 |
| Cullen Potter | 20 |
| Aydar Suniev | 23 |
| Andrew Basha | 22 |
| Ethan Wyttenbach | 20 |
| 2026 6th overall pick* | 19-20* |
While the Flames certainly won’t be a contender by 2027-28, they certainly won’t be as bad as they are right now meaning the 2028 draft lottery will be tough to win. Looking at the ages above, most of the Flames’ current top prospects and young players will either be entering their prime or just starting to earn regular NHL minutes. That’s a lot of talent added to the roster, and it’s hard to envision a team with the above names all in the mix finishing near the bottom of the NHL standings. Especially when you consider the 2027-28 season will be the first-ever season at Scotia Place, meaning there will be added optimism and reason to push for wins.
Time is running short already
While it sounds crazy to say given the Flames just recently committed to a full rebuild, time is already running out for the organization to land an elite player at the top of the draft. After a devastating lottery result in a season that should’ve led to a top-five pick, the Flames are now left waiting another 12 months to try to land that coveted top draft choice. With the amount of young talent already on the way, the Flames don’t have multiple years left to bottom out. There’s a good chance the upcoming 2026-27 season will be their final opportunity to finish near the bottom of the NHL and land a top-five selection. The 2027 draft lottery has gone from very important to an absolute necessity for the Calgary Flames. Buckle up.
