The Calgary Flames’ latest loss to the lowly Philadelphia Flyers significantly affected their odds of making the 2022–23 NHL playoffs.
Despite a weak Pacific Division this year, the Flames just can’t seem to string any kind of sustained momentum together. Their horns are locked with those of the Minnesota Wild, the two bubble teams vying for the second wild card spot in the West. However, the Wild are finding ways to win, and the Flames are finding ways to lose.
Comparing calgary’s playoff probabilities
Here’s how the Flames’ playoff chances look according to some of the most trustworthy models out there.
From HockeyViz.com, the massive drop you see on the Flames’ line is solely due to the loss against the Flyers. It had a huge effect on the Flames’ odds. According to this model, the Flames’ playoff chances are sitting at around 48%. Meanwhile, the Wild’s chances are at 68%. With the loss, Calgary fell under the wrong side of the 50% mark for the first time in a long time.
MoneyPuck’s model is the only one that still keeps the Flames in a positive light. Despite the loss to the Flyers, MoneyPuck still has the Flames at around 73% to make the playoffs. However, take this with a sizeable grain of salt; MoneyPuck has the Wild at 72%, currently the ninth best odds in the West.
PlayoffStatus is a resource that has been very accurate in the past. They list the Flames at just 39% to make the playoffs, and the Wild at 72%. Quite the spread for the two teams here too.
Hockey-Reference is an excellent resource for NHL statistical information. They give the Flames a 50% chance of making the playoffs, one of the more favourable figures out there. They give the Wild a 65% chance of making it.
The resources for all things lines and analysis, LeftWingLock has become one of the go-to resources for NHL info in recent years. Their model looks at each division individually, and puts the Flames at just 49% to make the playoffs this season. The Wild are at 71% and likely higher with their win last night over the Kings.
Finally, The Athletic, a paid website, gives the Flames a 62% chance of making the playoffs, and the Wild ahead of them at 74%. This model has favoured the Flames for the whole season, and is just now starting to drop them down the projected standings.
Calgary’s running out of room in the homestretch
We’re in the homestretch of the season now. The Flames’ destiny is in their own hands; with two more games against the Wild this season, these are absolutely must-win games. They only face Eastern teams three more times as well, so with lots of games against the West left to go, the Flames will be playing proverbial four-point games almost every night until the end of the season. It’s time the Flames show the fans what they’re made of.
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