It’s common knowledge that the NHL has full intention of bringing on the 2020-21 season. Navigating the realities of the COVID-19 pandemic for professional sports that include team-to-team contact and multi-city travel makes for a complex task.
A part of the planning includes the idea of separating Canadian teams into an all-Canadian division and splitting up the other 24 teams accordingly into new divisions. Most recently, Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) reported on what he has heard for possible realignments.
Prior to that, Karim Kurji (@karimkurji) floated his proposal that looked to split up the league into five divisions in the interest of limiting travel. No matter how the NHL decides to move forward with realignment, there are implications on both playoff odds and Stanley Cup odds for all teams involved.
To look into the details a bit further, I wanted to see how proposed divisional realignments can affect team groupings and whether that would boost a division’s likelihood of having the next Stanley Cup champions playing in it.
Starting with Kurji’s proposal, we’ll see how Cup favourites are spread among the five divisions. Then we’ll follow up with the realignment into four divisions as reported by Wyshynski. Using odds data from SportsBettingDime.com, we can look into which divisions are the most stacked and which are the weakest.
The odds used are American odds. Since all odds reported are currently positive, that represents the potential winnings for every $100 staked. The smaller the number, the less reward on the bet, and the more favoured a team is to win. The larger the number, the bigger a team is deemed as an underdog.
Odds were reported on October 28, 2020, and were taken on November 24, 2020. Once the new divisions are announced, the odds will likely change to reflect that, and they’ll also change based on what teams continue to do to fill out their rosters.
Five division format
The five divisions proposed are the Canada, Great Lakes, Metropolitan, Pacific, and Southeast divisions.
Canada DivisioN
| Team | Odds |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +1600 |
| Edmonton Oilers | +2200 |
| Calgary Flames | +2900 |
| Vancouver Canucks | +3100 |
| Winnipeg Jets | +3300 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +3300 |
| Ottawa Senators | +10000 |
Great Lakes DivisioN
| Team | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +1800 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +3800 |
| Buffalo Sabres | +4100 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | +4900 |
| Minnesota Wild | +5500 |
| Detroit Red Wings | +20000 |
Metropolitan DivisioN
| Team | Odds |
| Boston Bruins | +1200 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +1400 |
| Washington Capitals | +1700 |
| New York Rangers | +2600 |
| New York Islanders | +2600 |
| New Jersey Devils | +6000 |
Pacific DivisioN
| Team | Odds |
| Colorado Avalanche | +750 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | +750 |
| San Jose Sharks | +4300 |
| Arizona Coyotes | +5000 |
| Los Angeles Kings | +6500 |
| Anaheim Ducks | +6500 |
Southeast DivisioN
| Team | Odds |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +950 |
| St. Louis Blues | +1800 |
| Dallas Stars | +2000 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +2200 |
| Nashville Predators | +2700 |
| Florida Panthers | +3600 |
Visualising the five division odds
Plotting the odds, we can get a sense of relative strengths between divisions. Charts were made with R using ggplot2 and edited in Adobe Illustrator. Colour palette adapted from Carto.
Between the tables and the visualisation, it’s seen that the Canadian division would fall in the middle of the pack in terms of favourability to win the Stanley Cup. Aside from the Ottawa Senators, the rest of the Canadian teams currently fall between the 7th and 20th best odds.
For a division to be so tightly bound, it may just lead to one of the more exciting playoff races, as any of the top six Canadian teams can eke into the playoffs with a good run, or barely miss them with just a couple small falters.
As for the other four American divisions, the Southeast and Metro look to be quite competitive, while the Great Lakes and Central are a bit weaker. However, the Central would be home to the top-two favoured teams in the Colorado Avalanche and the Vegas Golden Knights, which can establish a new rivalry worth tuning into at every opportunity.
Four division format
Now looking at the four divisions currently proposed, the league would consist of the Canada, East, Central, and West divisions. The Canadian group evidently remains unchanged, but here are the odds breakdowns for the three American divisions.
East DivisioN
| Team | Odds |
| Boston Bruins | +1200 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +1400 |
| Washington Capitals | +1700 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +2200 |
| New York Islanders | +2600 |
| New York Rangers | +2600 |
| Buffalo Sabres | +4100 |
| New Jersey Devils | +6000 |
Central DivisioN
| Team | Odds |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +950 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +1800 |
| St. Louis Blues | +1800 |
| Nashville Predators | +2700 |
| Florida Panthers | +3600 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +3800 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | +4900 |
| Detroit Red Wings | +20000 |
West DivisioN
| Team | Odds |
| Colorado Avalanche | +750 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | +750 |
| Dallas Stars | +2000 |
| San Jose Sharks | +4300 |
| Arizona Coyotes | +5000 |
| Minnesota Wild | +5500 |
| Los Angeles Kings | +6500 |
| Anaheim Ducks | +6500 |
Visualising the four division odds
Similarly to the plot for the five divisions, the four division plot tells a familiar story.
Among the three American divisions, the best teams are a bit more spread out, with each division having at least one strong favourite with the Tampa Bay Lightning in the East, the Boston Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers in the Central, and the aforementioned Avalanche and Golden Knights in the West.
It makes sense that the NHL will try to preserve the four division format, as that would at least make sorting out the playoffs a bit easier. What they decide to do when it comes to determining wild card teams and tiebreaks will be decided later on, as establishing the regular season format comes first.
The odds are in their favour
Regardless of whichever divisional realignment method the NHL goes forward with, there will always be an inherent level of risk associated. It will take an abundance of caution and care to execute a full regular season as well as planning for the eventual playoffs.
When it comes to the Stanley Cup odds, as soon as the divisions are finalised, sportsbooks will have to update their odds immediately to reflect them. Given new team groupings and what may be a unique regular season format, it’ll be an interesting time to set odds on what’s largely unknown.
At the very least, we can all hope that NHL hockey will make its return to regular season play as safely as possible, as irregular as it may be.
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