History of the NHL draft lottery: How often do teams move up or down?

The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery will go down on May 5th, a day that every Flames fan no doubt has circled on their calendar. It’s bound to be a franchise-altering day in Calgary, either in a good way or a bad way.

With the team’s recent hot stretch, the Flames now seem just as likely to pick first as they are to pick 6th. With so much uncertainty in the air, it’s a great time to look back at the history of the draft lottery and how often team’s move up or down.

How the draft lottery works

The NHL first implemented the draft lottery in 1995, with only the first overall pick being up for grabs. In 2015, the league changed the rules so that the top three picks in the draft were all entered into the lottery. This meant the last-place team could potentially be bumped all the way down to fourth overall. See, the Detroit Red Wings in 2020, who moved from 1st overall to fourth overall after losing all three lotteries.

The rules then changed again in 2021 when only the first two picks were made available in the lottery. In 2022, the NHL implemented another rule that allowed teams to move up a max of 10 spots in the draft order, meaning only the bottom 11 teams had a shot at first overall.

How the lottery odds are divided up

With the above in mind, below is how the odds at the top two draft picks stack up.

As you’ll notice, every team in the bottom five has a better chance of moving back than moving up. As you move further down the standings, the more teams behind you that can jump over you in the lottery.

With that said, the lower you drop, the higher your final draft pick will be. For example, the Canucks have basically locked up a top-three draft pick, given they are all but guaranteed to finish 32nd and therefore can only be bumped to third overall at worst.

The Flames, however, currently sit 29th in the NHL, meaning they could potentially be bumped all the way down to 6th overall in the draft order if two teams below them win both lotteries.

Draft Lottery Results

For these numbers, we’ll only consider draft lotteries since 2016, when the NHL put multiple picks up for grabs. Results are courtesy of NHL.com.

Year	Bottom 5	Lottery 1 Winner	Original Spot	Lottery 2 Winner	Original Spot
2025	SJS, CHI, NSH, PHI, BOS	NYI	10	UTA	14
2024	SJS, CHI, ANA, CBJ, MTL	SJS	1	CHI	2
2023	ANA, CBJ, CHI, SJS, MTL	CHI	3	ANA	1
2022	MTL, ARI, SEA, PHI, NJD	MTL	1	NJD	5
2021	BUF, ANA, NJD, CBJ, DET	BUF	1	SEA	3
2020	DET, OTT, SJS, LA, ANA	NYR	14	LA	4
2019	OTT, LA, NJD, DET, BUF	NJD	3	NYR	6
2018	BUF, OTT, ARI, MTL, DET	BUF	1	CAR	11
2017	COL, VAN, ARI, NJD, BUF	NJD	5	PHI	13*
2016	TOR, EDM, VAN, CBJ, CGY	TOR	1	WPG	6

Breaking down the results

• The last-place team in the NHL has retained 1st overall five times, or 50% of the time.
• The last-place team has remained in the top two of the draft six times and fallen outside of the top two four times.
• The second-to-last-place team has had the worst luck of any team, having remained in the top two of the draft just once or 10% of the time. The second-to-last-place team has never won the 1st overall pick.
• The third-to-last-place team has had the best luck moving into the top two, winning a lottery three times, including winning the 1st overall pick in 2019 when the Chicago Blackhawks selected Connor Bedard.
• The largest ever lottery jump came in 2017, when the Philadelphia Flyers moved from 13th overall to 2nd overall and selected Nolan Patrick.
• Under the current rules (max 10 spot jump), the two largest wins both came in 2025 when the Utah Mammoth jumped from 14th to 4th and selected Caleb Desnoyers, and the New York Islanders moved from 10th to 1st and selected Matthew Schaefer.
• Across 10 lotteries, the first overall pick has been won by last, 2nd-last, 3rd-last, 5th-last, and 10th-last.
• Across 10 lotteries, the second lottery has been won by last, 2nd-last, 3rd-last, 4th-last, 5th-last, 6th-last, 7th-last, 13th-last, and 14th-last.
• The Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils are the only teams to have won the first overall pick twice since multiple lotteries were added.
• The New Jersey Devils have won the most lotteries of any team, with three wins, winning 1st overall twice and 2nd overall once.