Calgary Flames fans may be inclined to turn their hockey brains off when the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup playoffs begin. Understandably so. Their squad, after all, has no shot of making the postseason.
This is not us speaking out of turn, or off vibes. It’s simple math. All of the top ranked NHL betting sites put together by OnlineSportsBetting.net have Calgary laying the longest possible Stanley Cup winner odds. And that is assuming these platforms are still offering Flames Stanley Cup odds at all. Some of them are not.
When this season wraps up, it will mark the fourth consecutive year in which Calgary failed to make the playoffs. Adding insult to injury, they are slated to finish with their lowest points percentage since the 2012-13 campaign.
It’s all enough to disenchant fans—not permanently, but for a spell. Without any clear rooting interests heading into the Stanley Cup playoffs, Flames supporters may see little incentive to tuning in.
Except, this is not entirely true. The Flames do have a rooting interest, because if the Las Vegas Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup, the 2028 draft pick owned by Calgary from the Rasmus Andersson deal gets upgraded from a second-rounder to a first-rounder.
To Be Fair, It is Slightly More Complicated Than This
For Flames fans who value proper context, the decision to root for the Knights is not a throwaway one. In fact, it is slightly complicated by Calgary also owning Las Vegas’ 2026 first-round pick.
So, if the Knights win the Stanley Cup, the value of the pick they’re sending the Flames this year will go down, while the stock of the 2028 selection would go up. Whether that’s a worthwhile trade-off is theoretically debatable. Fortunately, Ryan Pike of Flames Nation does an excellent job breaking down the scenario Calgary should prefer most, using PuckPedia’s Perri Pick Value Calculator:
“Scenario A: If Vegas wins the Stanley Cup this year, their first-round pick would be 31st overall. (Normally it would be 32nd overall, but Ottawa’s pick is cemented at 32nd overall as punishment for the Evgenii Dadonov no-trade list hubbub.) If that happens, Vegas’ 2028 second-round pick would upgrade to a 2028 first-round pick. In the Perri calculator, the 31st overall pick is worth 10.87. If we ballpark the [2028] first-round pick to the middle of the first round, 17th overall, that pick value is 22.18. So in this scenario, the total pick value is about 33.05.
“Scenario B: If Vegas does not win the Stanley Cup this year, their 2026 first-round pick could fall anywhere from 17th to 30th overall. Their 2028 second-round pick would remain unchanged. If we ballpark the best-case scenario for the 2026 first-round pick, Vegas would be the last wildcard team and have the 17th overall pick. (Valued at 22.18.) A mid-round 2028 second-round pick, 49th overall, would be valued at 5.19. In this scenario, the best-case scenario with the highest value 2026 first-rounder the Flames could receive from a playoff-bound Vegas team in 2026, the total pick value is 27.37.”
This math aligns with the mystery-box appeal of more distant first-round picks. Even if Vegas’ 2026 first is 17th overall, it has a defined ceiling. The 2028 selection, meanwhile, could technically land anywhere. Vegas may be a contender now, but NHL contending windows open and close quickly.
There is a Scenario in Which the Flames DON’T Want the Knights to Win It All
The calculus here changes if the Flames aren’t playing the long game. If they are attempting to rejoin the playoff hunt immediately after this season, they might prefer the cost-controlled value a current first-round pick provides over the theory of a higher-end selection three drafts from.
Sure, this approach seems shortsighted on its face. But a four-year playoff drought is nothing at which to sneeze. Plus, the Flames seem like they had higher aspirations for this present season. As Elliotte Friedman noted on Sportsnet’s 32 Goals podcast last summer, Calgary entered transaction season hoping and trying to make some serious splashes.
“I think the Flames have low-key taken some bigger swings than we fully realize, especially on defence,” Friedman explained. “I heard they thought about some things that were bigger than we realized. This was supposed to be a big summer for the Flames. Before the cap jumped, they were one of the few teams with room. I think they were really hoping to take advantage of that.”
Other teams opening up more room and offering a combination of better deals and more intriguing competitive timelines ultimately undermined Calgary’s approach. With over $23 million in projected spending power this summer, they could be attempting to indulge immediate dice rolls.
Moral of the Story Remains the Same
At the end of it all, this isn’t that hard. Regardless of what Calgary plans to do this summer, the organization and its fans should be rooting for Vegas to win the Stanley Cup.
Increasing the value of that distant pick does more for the Flames’ offseason trade prospects than a better 2026 selection does for next season’s on-ice performance. The odds of the player they take this year having an immediate impact, let alone on a winner, isn’t especially high.
What’s more, the Flames cannot necessarily bank on having a big summer anyway. Their projected cap space ranks middle-of-the-pack relative to the rest of the league. The team’s available spending power may, yet again, not go as far as it would prefer.
Any way you slice it then, Calgary’s future is better off if the Golden Knights win the Stanley Cup. Flames fans should follow the playoffs accordingly.
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