After getting all the way back up to .500 to kick off 2026, the Flames have fallen off a cliff in January. Combined with sending their best defenceman to Vegas, the team has taken quite a few hits over the past couple of weeks. After yet another loss last night, the Flames now stare down a double-digit gap between them and the playoffs. Is it finally time for the Flames to embrace the tank?
Despite the worst start in franchise history, the Flames organization called their tough start nothing but a blip. Following yesterday’s games, however, the Flames are now 11 points out of the playoffs, with one more game played.
Current NHL standings
After a 3-8-2 stretch to start the new year, the Flames have found themselves all the way back down to 31st in the NHL, a spot they haven’t been in for over a month.
| Team | Record | Points % |
|---|---|---|
| Winnipeg Jets | 21-25-7 | .462 |
| New York Rangers | 22-27-6 | .455 |
| St. Louis Blues | 20-25-9 | .454 |
| Calgary Flames | 21-26-6 | .453 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 18-31-5 | .380 |
As mentioned, the Flames have fallen back into the bottom three in the NHL. They’ve also created a cushion for themselves in the bottom five, as they sit three points from sixth last. Their 26 regulation losses rank as the third-highest total league-wide, behind only the Rangers and the dreadful Canucks. Their 21 wins are tied for the second-lowest total in the league, ahead of only the Canucks.
Speaking of the Canucks, they have all but wrapped up the best lottery odds, but it’s still an incredibly tight race for second last. The New York Rangers have fallen off a cliff and declared a rebuild, while the Blues continue to pile up losses as well. At this point, the Flames will be in tough to finish last in the league, but second last is up for grabs.
Path to the playoffs
The question now becomes, does the organization truly believe this team still has a shot at the playoffs? Where the Flames sit in the standings would suggest the playoffs will be nearly impossible to reach at this point. With only 29 games remaining, time is running out. With that said, this is the Calgary Flames we’re talking about. Until the playoffs are a mathematical impossibility, they will believe they have a chance.
Coming into the season, we were using the organization’s threshold of 97 points to make the playoffs this season. However, with the Western Conference being as bad as it is in 2025-26, the playoff cut-off is going to be much lower this season. Based on The Athletic’s model, the second wild card team in the West is currently on track for around 91 points.
| Point % in Final 29 Games | Season-end Point Total |
|---|---|
| .741 (point pace needed for 91pts) | 91 |
| .677 (Calgary Flames in 21-22) | 87 |
| .453 (point pace in 2025-26) | 74 |
Paging Murray Edwards. While the Flames aren’t technically mathematically eliminated yet, they may as well be. The playoffs look so far away at this point that it would take a modern miracle for this team to sneak in.
If the Flames were to continue playing at their full-season pace, they’d finish with just 74 points. A whopping 17 points outside of the playoffs. If they were to somehow magically replicate the 2021-22 teams’ elite .677 pace for the remaining 29 games, they’d finish with 87 points. That would still likely leave them a couple of wins short of making the playoffs. If you’ve watched the Flames this season, you’d know there’s no chance they start playing at the same pace as the juggernaut 2021-22 team.
To reach the current 91-point cut-off mark, this team would need to play at a .741 pace over the final 29 games of the season. For context, the only team playing at that pace or better this season is the Colorado Avalanche. Over the past 20 years, there have been just seven teams that have played at a .741 pace or better in a season.
Road to a top-five pick
Now let’s take a look at the reverse and see where the Flames could land in the draft lottery based on how the next 29 games go. The Flames’ recent losing streak to start 2026 has pushed them right back into a prime spot for a top-five pick in July.
Using the Athletic’s model, last place in the NHL is currently tracking to finish with around 64 points. Third-last is on pace for 74 points, and fifth-last is on pace for 77 points.
| Point % in Final 29 Games | Season-end Point Total |
|---|---|
| .453 (current pace) | 74 |
| .500 | 77 |
Don’t look now, but a top-five selection at the 2026 draft is starting to look very likely. Even if the Flames managed to scrape their way to a .500 record over the final 29 games, they’d still finish with just 77 points. That’d likely leave them picking fifth overall in July.
If they were to continue at their current .453 pace for the remaining 29 games, it would likely leave them with around 74 points. While that won’t be bad enough to pass the Canucks for last place, it would still firmly place them in the top three of the draft, potentially even in the top two. That would be a gigantic win for a team in desperate need of an elite forward.
It’s time to embrace the tank
As we enter the final stretch of the 2025-26 season, the Flames have firmly cemented themselves as one of the worst teams in the NHL. While it’s still early and this team could easily go on a hot stretch and shoot up the standings, a top-five selection at the 2026 draft is starting to look like a very likely ending to this miserable season.
