Just when it looked like the Calgary Flames were on a fast track to the playoffs, they’ve dropped two in a row in ugly fashion. After a big loss last night, they’re once again multiple points away from both the playoffs and last place as they enter the second half of the season. The playoffs or draft debates rage on for Flames fans.
Despite the worst start in franchise history, the Flames have been able to crawl out of the NHL’s basement and back into the playoff race. However, their poor start has left them with little room for error, evidenced by their place in the standings despite a 16-12-2 record since November 1st.
Following yesterday’s games, the Flames are now five points out of the playoffs, with no games in hand. Can they hold onto to their playoff hopes, or will they slip away as we enter 2026?
Current NHL standings
After coming oh so close to climbing out of the bottom five in the NHL standings last week, the Flames’ two-game losing streak has now dropped them all the way back to third last in the NHL by points percentage.
| Team | Record | Points % |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Blues | 17-18-8 | .488 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 17-18-7 | .488 |
| Calgary Flames | 18-20-4 | .476 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 16-20-5 | .451 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 15-21-4 | .425 |
The Flames remain in the race for the most regulation losses this season, sitting with 20 on the year and only one less than the last-place Winnipeg Jets. Speaking of the Jets, they now seem like the favourites to land the top draft pick, having dropped 18 of their last 29 games and sitting as the only team below a .450 points percentage.
Path to the playoffs
So, if the organization continues to believe the playoffs are possible, given the team’s recent winning spell, what must the Flames do in the remaining 40 games to achieve this goal?
Coming into the season, we were using the organization’s threshold of 97 points to make the playoffs. However, the Western Conference has been so terrible this year that the playoff cut-off may be drastically lower this season. Based on The Athletic’s model, the second wild card team in the West is currently on track for just 86 points.
| Point % in Final 40 Games | Season-end Point Total |
|---|---|
| .567 (point pace since Nov. 1st) | 85 |
| .476 (point pace in 2025-26) | 78 |
Flames fans might want to look away. As it currently stands, the team is tracking to finish the year with right around 85 points if they continue their current pace since November 1st. The playoff cut-off in the West is tracking for 86 points right now. In other words, another ninth-place finish seems incredibly likely at the moment.
If the Flames hope to sneak into the playoffs, they likely need to play at an even better pace than they’ve shown since November 1st. Considering how terrible this team looked in October and the potential loss of Rasmus Andersson in the coming months, that may be difficult to achieve.
If they were to play to their full-season pace for the rest of the year, they’d finish with around 78 points and well short of the playoffs. The question remains: are the real Calgary Flames the team we’ve seen since November 1st? Or are they a mixture of the team we’ve seen through all 42 games?
Road to a top-five pick
Now let’s take a look at the reverse, and see where the Flames could land in the draft lottery based on different results the rest of the season. The Flames’ recent hot stretch of winning games has hurt their odds at the top pick quite a bit, but a top-five selection is still very much in the cards.
Using the Athletic’s model, last place in the NHL is currently tracking to finish around 75 points. Third last is on pace for 76 points, and fifth last is on pace for 80 points.
| Point % in Final 40 Games | Season-end Point Total |
|---|---|
| .476 (current pace) | 78 |
| .500 | 80 |
A top-three draft pick, something that once seemed like a guarantee, now looks unlikely. Given how bad the team was in October, a top-three pick looked like a near certainty for a long time. The Flames’ recent turnaround has now reached the point where their current pace would place them outside the top four of the 2026 NHL draft.
If they were to continue at a .476 pace for the remaining 40 games, they’d finish with around 78 points. While that would still firmly place them in the top 10 of the draft, that total likely places them in range for a pick between 5-6. Look, that’s still a very solid pick, but it’s a far cry from a top-three selection and would be a huge letdown for a team that once seemed destined for their first-ever top-three pick.
If they were to play exactly .500 hockey the rest of the way, which now seems likely given their recent results, they’d finish the year with 80 points. Using The Athletic’s models’ projections, 80 points will likely get you in the 5-7 range at the draft.
Stuck in the middle with you
As we enter the second half of the 2025-26 season, the Flames remain firmly in the mushy middle and no closer to a playoff spot or a top draft pick. They sit just five points out of the playoffs, while also only six points out of 32nd place in the NHL. For a team that desperately needs a top-five selection at the 2026 draft, they seem destined to finish right in the middle of the Western Conference once again.
