The Calgary Flames just keep winning games. After yet another win last night, they’ve climbed even closer to the playoffs. Despite the worst start in franchise history, the Flames continue to crawl out of the NHL’s basement and back into the playoff race. With a 12-5-1 record in their last 18 games, a Flames team that once seemed destined for the bottom of the league is now right back into the mushy middle.
Following yesterday’s games, the Flames are now just three points out of the playoffs, but with two games in hand. Can they continue to pick up wins and inch closer to a playoff spot as 2025 comes to a close?
Current NHL standings
As mentioned, the Flames are only three points out of the playoffs right now due to their recent winning stretch. They’ve also climbed out of the bottom three in the NHL standings for the first time all season and are nearly out of the bottom five.
| Team | Record | Points % |
|---|---|---|
| Calgary Flames | 17-18-4 | .487 |
| St. Louis Blues | 15-17-8 | .475 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 16-19-3 | ..461 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 15-18-4 | .459 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 14-18-6 | .447 |
The Flames no longer have the most regulation losses in the league, as that title now belongs to the Vancouver Canucks with 19 regulation losses. The Flames are also no longer bottom four in the NHL based on points percentage for the first time all season. The fight for the top draft pick at the 2026 draft also has a new challenger, the Winnipeg Jets, who have now lost nine of their last 10 games and are second last in the league.
Path to the playoffs
So, if the organization continues to believe the playoffs are possible, given the team’s recent winning spell, what must the Flames do in the remaining 43 games to achieve this goal?
Up to now, we’ve been using the organization’s threshold of 97 points to make the playoffs. However, the Western Conference has been so terrible this year that the playoff cut-off may be drastically lower this season. Based on The Athletic’s model, the second wild card team in the West is currently on track for just 88 points.
| Point % in Final 43 Games | Season-end Point Total |
|---|---|
| .593 (point pace since Nov. 1st) | 89 |
| .487 (point pace in 2025-26) | 80 |
Well, well, well. If the Flames manage to continue their .593 pace since November 1st for the remaining 43 games, they’ll very likely make the playoffs as the second wild card team. The longer this stretch of hot play continues, the more likely it looks like they can keep this up all season. They’ve been doing it for two months now, what’s four more?
With that said, only seven teams in the entire NHL have played at a .583 pace or better so far this season. Counting on the Flames to continue this pace for another 40+ games seems optimistic, but for the first time in a while, it definitely doesn’t seem impossible.
If they were to play to their full-season pace for the rest of the year, they’d finish with around 80 points and well short of the playoffs. So the question becomes, are the real Flames the team we’ve seen since November 1st, or the team we’ve seen across all 39 games?
Road to a top-five pick
Now let’s take a look at the reverse, and see where the Flames could land in the draft lottery based on different results the rest of the season. The Flames recent hot stretch of winning games has hurt their odds at a top pick quite a bit, with a top-three selection looking as unlikely as it has all season.
Using the Athletic’s model, last place in the NHL is currently tracking to finish around 70 points. Third last is on pace for 77 points, and fifth last is on pace for 79 points.
| Point % in Final 43 Games | Season-end Point Total |
|---|---|
| .487 (current pace) | 80 |
| .500 | 81 |
A top-three draft pick, something that once seemed like a guarantee, now looks like an unlikely bet. Given how bad the team was in October, a top-three pick looked like a near certainty for a long time. The Flames’ recent turnaround has now reached the point where their current pace would place them outside the top four of the 2026 NHL draft.
If they were to continue at a .487 pace for the remaining 43 games, they’d finish with around 80 points. While still firmly in the top 10 of the draft, that total likely places them with the sixth or seventh overall pick. Again, that’s still a very solid pick, but it’s a far cry from a top-three selection and would be a huge letdown for a team in need of elite talent.
If they were to play exactly .500 hockey the rest of the way, which now seems very likely, they’d finish the year with 81 points. Using The Athletic’s models’ projections, 81 points will likely get you the eighth or even ninth overall selection in June. Yikes.
Is the dream dead?
After a nightmare start to the 2025-26 season that saw the Flames as the odds-on leader for the first overall pick for most of October and even November, things have changed quite dramatically. With the team’s recent winning stretch guiding them out of the basement, a top-three selection is starting to look unlikely. In other words, a mushy middle finish now seems like the most likely outcome for this team and a pick in the six to eight range.
