Can the Calgary Flames pull off the impossible and make the playoffs? Despite the worst start in franchise history, the Flames continue to crawl their way out of the NHL’s basement. With a 10-4-1 record in their last 15 games, a Flames team that once seemed dead in the water has seemingly found itself back in the playoff race.
Following Sunday’s slate, the Flames are now five points out of the playoffs, but with two games in hand. Can they continue to pick up wins and inch closer to a playoff spot as 2025 comes to a close?
Current NHL standings
As mentioned, the Flames are only five points out of the playoffs right now and have two fewer games played. They’ve also climbed out of the bottom three in the NHL standings for the first time all season.
| Team | Record | Points % |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Kraken | 13-14-6 | .485 |
| Calgary Flames | 15-17-4 | .472 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 15-17-3 | .471 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 15-17-3 | .471 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 13-16-6 | .457 |
After leading the league in regulation losses almost all season, the Flames are now tied with both the Canucks and Jets at 17 apiece. As mentioned, the Flames are also no longer bottom three in the NHL based on points percentage for the first time all season. The fight for the top draft pick at the 2026 draft also has a new challenger, the Chicago Blackhawks, who have now lost five straight are without Connor Bedard due to an injury.
Path to the playoffs
So, if the organization continues to believe the playoffs are possible, given the team’s recent results, what must the Flames do in the remaining 46 games to achieve this goal?
Up to now, we’ve been using the organization’s threshold of 97 points to make the playoffs. However, the Western Conference has been so poor this year that the playoff cut-off may be drastically lower this season. Based on The Athletic’s model, the second wild card team in the West is currently on track for just 88 points.
| Point % in Final 46 Games | Season-end Point Total |
|---|---|
| .583 (point pace since Nov. 1st) | 88 |
| .595 (Flames in 2024–25) | 89 |
Don’t look now, but the Flames are closer to making the playoffs than ever before. For the first time in a long time, a mushy middle finish looks like a very likely outcome. If the team were to continue to play .583 hockey, their pace since November 1st, they’d finish the year with 88 points. That is currently tracking to be the exact total needed to make the final wild card spot in the West. Another ninth-place finish, anyone?
With that said, only 10 teams in the entire NHL have played at a .583 pace or better so far this season. Counting on the Flames to continue this pace for another 40+ games seems optimistic, but for the first time in a while, it doesn’t seem impossible.
If they replicated their .595 pace from the 2024-25 season, it would likely leave them right around 89 points and barely in the final wild card spot. It would also likely ensure a first-round matchup with the juggernaut Colorado Avalanche in the first round.
Road to a top-five pick
Now let’s take a look at the reverse, and see where the Flames could land in the draft lottery based on different results the rest of the season. Their recent hot stretch has hurt their odds at a top pick quite a bit, but they’re still very much in the running for a top-five selection.
Using the Athletic’s model, last place in the NHL is currently tracking to finish around 71 points. Third last is on pace for 74 points, and fifth last is on pace for 79 points.
| Point % in Final 46 Games | Season-end Point Total |
|---|---|
| .472 (current pace) | 77 |
| .500 | 80 |
For the first time this season, a top-three pick is not a forgone conclusion. Given how bad the team was in October, a top-three pick looked like a near certainty for a long time. However, the Flames’ recent turnaround has now reached the point where their current pace would very likely place them outside the top four of the 2026 NHL draft.
If they were to continue at a .472 pace for the remaining 46 games, they’d finish right around 77 points. While still firmly in the top 10 of the draft, that total likely places them closer to fifth or sixth last rather than in the top three.
If they were to play exactly .500 hockey the rest of the way, which now seems very likely, they’d finish the year with 80 points. Using The Athletic’s models’ projections, 80 points will likely get you the seventh or eighth overall selection in June. Yikes.
Back where they belong
After a nightmare start to the 2025-26 season that saw the Flames as the odds-on leader for the first overall pick in June, things have changed quite dramatically. With the team’s recent efforts guiding them out of the basement, a top-three selection is starting to look as likely as a spot in the playoffs. In other words, a mushy middle finish now seems like the most likely outcome for this team.
