The Calgary Flames won’t die. Despite the worst start in franchise history, the Flames have somehow managed to remain in the mushy middle longer than expected. With a 6-3-1 record in their last 10 games, the Flames have ensured those who are hoping for a top draft pick don’t feel comfortable just yet, as the playoffs are still within reach.
Following Sunday’s slate, the Flames are now five points back of a playoff spot, with the same amount of games played. Can they do the unthinkable and turn this ship around after it looked destined for the bottom of the ocean?
Current NHL standings
As mentioned, the Flames are only five points out of the playoffs right now. They’ve also started to slowly crawl their way out of the NHL’s basement.
| Team | Record | Points % |
|---|---|---|
| Seatle Kraken | 11-9-6 | .538 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 11-13-4 | .464 |
| Calgary Flames | 11-15-4 | .433 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 11-15-3 | .431 |
| Nashville Predators | 10-14-4 | .429 |
With the Flames picking up 13 points in their last 10 games, they’ve moved out of the bottom two in the NHL standings for the first time since October. They also don’t led the NHL in regulation losses anymore, now sitting tied at 15 with Vancouver.
Path to the playoffs
So, if the organization believes the playoffs are still possible given the team’s recent results, what must the Flames do in the remaining 52 games to get there?
Up to now, we’ve been using the organization’s threshold of 97 points to make the playoffs. However, the Western Conference has been so poor this year that the playoff cut-off may be drastically lower this season. Based on The Athletic’s model, the second wild card team in the West is currently tracking for just 88 points.
| Point % in Final 52 Games | Season-end Point Total |
|---|---|
| .550 | 83 |
| .595 (Flames in 2024–25) | 88 |
| .677 (Flames in 2021–22) | 96 |
Hold on now. If the West’s current playoff landscape remains the same through the end of the year, the playoffs suddenly don’t seem so out of reach in Calgary. Now they would need to play at least .595 hockey the rest of the way to even have a chance at a wild card spot, but that’s a much smaller ask than getting to 96 points, which would require .677 hockey.
If you’ve watched the Flames this year, you’d know how inconsistent this team is, so counting on them to play .677 hockey for the next four months seems like a massive stretch. Only two teams in the entire NHL have played at that pace so far this season: the Avalanche and the Stars. The good news is that it may no longer be required, despite what we previously believed.
If they manage to replicate their point pace from last season (.595) when they nearly made the playoffs, they’d finish right around 88 points at year’s end. That pace would leave them right on the cusp of the final playoff berth if the lacklustre pace in the Western Conference continues. In other words, the Flames’ still very much have a chance at making the playoffs.
Road to a top-five pick
Now let’s take a look at the reverse, and see where the Flames could land in the draft lottery based on different results the rest of the season. Their recent hot stretch has hurt their odds slightly, but make no mistake, this is still very much a bottom-feeder team for the time being.
Using the Athletic’s model, last place in the NHL is currently tracking to finish around 72 points. Third last is on pace for 73 points, and fifth last is on pace for 80 points.
| Point % in Final 52 Games | Season-end Point Total |
|---|---|
| .433 (current pace) | 71 |
| .409 (Flames in 1997–98, worst pace in franchise history) | 67 |
| .470 (2013–14 Flames, highest draft pick in franchise history) | 75 |
| .500 | 78 |
Now for some good news. Despite their recent winning ways, the rest of the bottom feeders in the NHL have also been winning games. That means even if the Flames continue at their exact .433 pace for the final 52 games, they’d still finish with only 71 points and likely last in the NHL.
If the Flames were to play .500 hockey the rest of the way, they’d land around 78 points come year’s end. That would’ve placed them seventh last in 2024-25, and based on current projections, would place them fifth last this season. In other words, middle-of-the-road hockey for the next 52 games will likely still lead to a top-five draft pick when it’s all said and done.
I’m not dead yet!
With a 6-3-1 record in their last 10 and a truly terrible Western Conference field, the Flames’ playoff hopes somehow seem more real than ever before. With that said, it would still take a lot of wins over the final 52 games to sneak in. Unless they’re able to maintain this turnaround for another four months, a bottom-10 finish for the Flames and a place in the lottery still seems likely despite what ownership wants you to believe.
