American Thanksgiving has always been a major benchmark in the NHL season. Almost every single season, the majority of teams sitting in a playoff spot on the final Thursday of November are the same teams that make the playoffs in April. That’s not great news for the Calgary Flames, who sit 32nd in the NHL right now based on points percentage.
Has the team’s standing on American Thanksgiving typically been a good indicator of where they’ll end up in April? Let’s take a look.
Flames at Thanksgiving since the lockout
Let’s take a trip down memory lane and take a look at where the Flames have ranked league-wide each Thanksgiving since the 2004-05 lockout, and then where they ranked at the end of the season, and if they made the playoffs. Rankings in bold indicate that the team was sitting in a playoff spot.
The 2020–21 and 2012–13 seasons both had altered start dates, so the Thanksgiving benchmark wasn’t applicable in those seasons.
| Season | NHL rank at Thanksgiving | NHL rank at season’s end | Playoffs? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 31st | ? | ? |
| 2024-25 | 9th | 15th | No |
| 2023-24 | 26th | 24th | No |
| 2022-23 | 15th | 16th | No |
| 2021-22 | 4th | 6th | Yes |
| 2019-20 | 24th | 19th | No |
| 2018-19 | 10th | 2nd | Yes |
| 2017-18 | 10th | 20th | No |
| 2016-17 | 28th | 15th | Yes |
| 2015-16 | 28th | 26th | No |
| 2014-15 | 11th | 16th | Yes |
| 2013-14 | 26th | 27th | No |
| 2011-12 | 27th | 17th | No |
| 2010-11 | 26th | 17th | No |
| 2009-10 | 6th | 16th | No |
| 2008-09 | 13th | 13th | Yes |
| 2007-08 | 22nd | 14th | Yes |
| 2006-07 | 17th | 13th | Yes |
| 2005-06 | 11th | 7th | Yes |
Overall, since the lockout, the Flames have taken part in 19 full-length seasons including this season. Of those 19 seasons, they’ve been in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving nine times, or around 47% of the time. The Flames hovering around 50%, who would’ve guessed?
If we look at the reverse, the Flames have been sitting outside of the playoffs on American Thanksgiving a total of 10 times (including this season), or around 53% of the time. It’s also worth noting that the Flames’ current spot of 31st on American Thanksgiving is their lowest spot since the lockout. The next lowest would be in 2016-17 and 2015-16, where they ranked 28th on Thanksgiving.
Since the lockout, the Flames have been outside the playoffs on Thanksgiving, but ended the season in the playoffs a total of just three times. They managed this feat in 2006–07, 2007–08, and 2016–17. No example is better than the 2016-17 season, where they went from third last in the NHL on Thanksgiving to a playoff spot by season’s end. So how did that team do it?
2016-17 Flames: The 10-game winning streak
Thanksgiving 28th | Years end: 15th
If you’re the Flames, you’re looking at the 2016-17 season as inspiration right now. That team was similarly in the NHL’s basement on American Thanksgiving, sitting 28th in the NHL based on points percentage with a record of 9-12-1.
That team showed signs of improvement right after Thanksgiving. They posted a record of 7-1-1 immediately following the holiday, including a six-game winning streak to start December. By Christmas, the Flames had gone from 28th in the NHL on Thanksgiving to sitting in a wild-card spot and just two points out of a divisional playoff spot.
They would continue to sit on the playoff bubble until their infamous 10-game winning streak in February/March, which is still tied for the longest winning streak in franchise history. When it was all said and done, the Flames ended the year in the first wild card spot with a record of 45-33-4. Following Thanksgiving, they posted a record of 36-21-3, representing a .625 point percentage.
Last place has been a death sentence
How about around the NHL? How often does the team that last (by points percentage) in the NHL on Thanksgiving end up making the playoffs? Not often.
| Season | Last place team (by points %) | NHL rank at season’s end | Final draft spot |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Calgary Flames | ? | ? |
| 2024-25 (32 teams) | San Jose Sharks | 32nd | 2nd overall |
| 2023-24 (32 teams) | San Jose Sharks | 32nd | 1st overall |
| 2022-23 (32 teams) | Anaheim Ducks | 32nd | 2nd overall |
| 2021-22 (32 teams) | Arizona Coyotes | 31st | 3rd overall |
| 2019-20 (31 teams) | Detroit Red Wings | 31st* | 4th overall |
| 2018-19 (31 teams) | L.A. Kings | 30th | 5th overall |
| 2017-18 (31 teams) | Arizona Coyotes | 29th | 5th overall |
| 2016-17 (30 teams) | Arizona Coyotes | 28th | 7th overall |
| 2015-16 (30 teams) | Edmonton Oilers | 29th | 4th overall |
| 2014-15 (30 teams) | Buffalo Sabres | 30th | 2nd overall |
| 2013-14 (30 teams) | Buffalo Sabres | 30th | 2nd overall |
| 2011-12 (30 teams) | Columbus Blue Jackets | 30th | 2nd overall |
| 2010-11 (30 teams) | New York Islanders | 27th | 5th overall |
| 2009-10 (30 teams) | Carolina Hurricanes | 24th | 7th overall |
| 2008-09 (30 teams) | Atlanta Thrashers | 27th | 4th overall |
| 2007-08 (30 teams) | Washington Capitals | 12th | 21st overall |
| 2006-07 (30 teams) | Philadelphia Flyers | 30th | 2nd overall |
| 2005-06 (30 teams) | Columbus Blue Jackets | 25th | 6th overall |
Oof, if history is any indication, the Flames’ hope of making the playoffs is slim to none. Just one team since the lockout has gone from last place on Thanksgiving to the playoffs, the 2007-08 Washington Capitals. That team had a dramatic turnaround, going from last all the way up to 12th place in the NHL and third in their conference by season’s end. They wound up losing in seven games in the first round.
Other than the Capitals team, no one sitting at the bottom on Thanksgiving has come anywhere close to the playoffs. In fact, none of the other 17 teams even managed to escape the bottom 10 of the league by the end of the season. The next best team would be the 2009-10 Hurricanes, who finished 24th and eight points out of the playoffs.
A high draft pick is nearly a guarantee
Now, for some good news for those hoping for a high draft pick this season. Let’s just say, you’re in luck. Of the last 18 teams to sit last on American Thanksgiving, 17 of them ended up picking inside the top seven of the NHL draft. The only outlier of course being the Capitals, who made the playoffs.
Eight of the 17 ended up picking in the top three, which would represent the highest draft pick in Flames history. In other words, 94.4% of the time, the team in last place on Thanksgiving ends up getting a top-seven pick, and 47% of the time, the last-place team ends up picking in the top three. For a team that has never picked higher than fourth, you take those odds all day, every day.
Headed towards a lottery spot
A month and a half into the 2025-26 season, the Calgary Flames currently sit last in the NHL by points percentage. If history is any indication, the Flames have an over 90% chance to land a top seven pick in this years draft based on their current standing at American Thanksgiving.
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