The 2025-26 NHL season is just a couple days away. Final rosters are being submitted and teams are gearing up for opening night on a brand new season. Internally, the Calgary Flames are very much aiming to make the playoffs. It makes sense after they missed out on a playoff berth last season on a tiebreaker, and ideally the team’s young core will take steps forward this year.
However, externally, the same optimism doesn’t seem to exist.
Well-respected NHL analyst JFresh has released his projections for every team this season, and the Flames are in last place.
The model
JFresh’s model has performed very well despite its relative simplicity to other popular public models. Over the past five seasons, JFresh’s model has a relative error of 10.4 standings points, which is better than all of HockeyViz, Money Puck, Dom from the Athletic, Evolving Hockey, and average fan predictions.
Here’s how the full standings look:
Technically the San Jose Sharks are below the Flames likely by a fraction of a point, but regardless, the Flames are projected to finish with the worst point total in the NHL.
Here’s what JFresh had to say about justifying the models’ output:
Calgary also overperformed, winning a ton of close games (which is not a repeatable team-level skill) and riding their goalie. That roster is anemic, with a lot of okay players but arguably no clear-cut first line forwards. The model, which doesn’t even like Rasmus Andersson, sees them falling apart.
JFresh on his model’s prediction for the Calgary Flames in 2025-26
Prove ’em wrong?
Last season, Calgary proved everyone wrong. They played hard, developed an identity, saw huge steps taken by some key young players, and ended up making a serious run for a playoff spot.
They’ll need more of the same this season, and it’s hard to do that two years in a row. But, there’s no reason to think they can’t.
They have their backs against the wall once again, and let’s see if they can prove everyone wrong again, too.
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