We are now around a month away from the new NHL season and that means that there is a familiar conversation being had across Canada. Namely, will one of the seven teams actually win the Stanley Cup this season? It has now been 33 years since Montreal lifted the famous trophy and the drought has rarely looked like ending.
That is until the last few years, when the Oilers went all the way to the finals, only to lose to the Florida Panthers on both occasions. Canadian sportsbooks might now feel a little more confident in pricing our home teams more competitively in their markets – and there is a distinct feeling going around that this could be the year.
There is a lot of the offseason still to go and there are sure to be a few more surprises in store before the players take to the ice at the beginning of October. But here is our rundown, from least to most likely, of the Canadian teams chances of glory.
Calgary Flames
It pains us to say it, but there is little chance of the Flames breaking the duck this season. Just missing out on the postseason last year may suggest that this is a team on the rise but there are more people thinking it was a case of overachieving. There is long term hope for the Flames but they are not going to end the drought.
Without any real additions in the offseason, there is little sign of improvement of a team that struggles to score, even if it does have an impressive defense and goaltender. Calgary might even make the playoffs this season but don’t expect the Flames to stick around.
Montreal Canadiens
After three barren years, the Habs finally booked a place in the playoffs last season, only to fall to the Capitals in the first round. That has to be considered an achievement, however, and something to build on for the future. But this is another Canadian team that overachieved last year and might struggle to replicate its form in 2025-26.
Bringing in Noah Dobson from the Islanders will boost the defense no end, but there is still the very good chance that Montreal moves backwards this season. With the Canadiens being the Canadiens, expectation is now sky high, and there is usually only one way that kind of thinking ends up going.
Vancouver Canucks
After ending its own mini postseason drought the year before, Vancouver fell hard and missed out yet again on Spring hockey. But re-signing Brock Boeser to a contract extension should be all the incentive the Canucks need to power up the rankings and earn a place in the postseason once again.
There is depth and skill on the roster that makes Vancouver competitive in its division – and in the Western Conference as a whole. We’re not sure that there is a realistic possibility of actually winning the Stanley Cup quite yet, but it could be an interesting year for this team.
Ottawa Senators
The Senators showed that they meant business by getting into the playoffs for the first time since 2017 last season, and even though that first round loss to the Leafs brought everyone back down to Earth, there is a lot of belief in this young team to do well again this year. There have been a few interesting additions to the roster, but the Atlantic is extremely competitive – and that might take the shine off of the Senators’ chances of going deep into the postseason.
Toronto Maple Leafs
This is where we get a little more realistic about a Canadian team lifting Lord Stanley’s mug this season. We’re still not entirely convinced that the Leafs will be the ones to do it – and the loss of Mitch Marner is a real hammer-blow to the roster – but Toronto is definitely one of the “most likely” group of three.
Winning the Atlantic last year was a real show of intent and it should be said that the Leafs only bowed out in the second round to the eventual champs. The defense and goaltending units are strong and the new arrivals can more than make up for the departure of Marner.
Winnipeg Jets
It may be something of a surprise that after winning the Central Division and becoming the regular season champs last year, we don’t have the Jets as our number one team capable of bringing the Stanley Cup back to Canada. It is not as though we don’t think there is any chance – just that there is still work to be done,
Losing Nikolaj Ehlers is a massive blow and bringing in veteran center Jonathan Toews from the Blackhawks could be seen as a gamble. As undoubtedly talented as he is, he is 37 and hasn’t played for over two years. Winnipeg will make it to the playoffs and maybe even go further than the second round this season – but winning the Stanley Cup is another huge leap.
Edmonton Oilers
So, it is the Oilers who we think will have the whole of Canada getting behind them in the Spring. Losing two finals series in a row can probably be seen one of two ways. Either this is an elite team that is destined to win the title and have been unlucky coming up against a stronger Panthers team back-to-back. Or, the Oilers have blown their chance and will now fade away, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Connor McDavid.
We think McDavid will do anything to finally win a championship with the Oilers and this could be the year that happens. A lot of experience has left Edmonton but the new arrivals may even give the team more talent on the ice. A weak division means the Oilers can build up nicely throughout the regular season and burst into life in the playoffs. Get ready Canada – this could be the year.
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