With the Florida Panthers officially clinching their second Stanley Cup in a row, we finally know where the Calgary Flames will be picking with the 2025 first-round pick acquired in the Matthew Tkachuk trade. Despite coming into the playoffs with the pick sitting at 22nd overall, the Panthers claiming another Stanley Cup has moved the pick all the way down to 32nd, the last pick in the first round.
It’s only a 10-spot difference, but the bottom line is that the 32nd overall pick is the worst possible pick to have in the first round. In other words, the odds certainly aren’t in the Flames’ favour at 32nd overall as they’ll need some luck to land an impact player.
The Flames have selected 32nd overall three times in their history. In 1980, 1990, and again in 1997. None of the three players had noteworthy careers in Calgary, and overall, they combined for 389 games played and 241 points across their NHL careers.
The last five 32nd overall picks
2024 – Sam O’Reilly – Edmonton Oilers
It’s only been a year, but so far, the 2024 32nd overall selection looks alright. After trading into the spot, the Edmonton Oilers selected right winger Sam O’Reilly from the OHL. This past season was a decent one for O’Reilly. He posted 71 points in 62 regular season games and then 22 in 17 playoff games as a key piece for the Memorial Cup Champion London Knights.
There’s already been talk of him pushing for a job on the Oilers roster next season in his D+2 year. O’Reilly was considered a bit of a reach at the time, but if he can continue to develop, he has the chance to become a good bottom-six forward in the NHL, which is okay value at 32nd overall.
2023 – David Edstrom – Vegas Golden Knights
In 2023, the Vegas Golden Knights selected centre David Edstrom out of the SHL. He’s since been a main piece in the Tomas Hertl trade to the San Jose Sharks and the Yaroslav Askarov trade to the Nashville Predators, showcasing his value to teams around the league as a valuable young asset.
In his D+1 and D+2 seasons, he put up an identical 19 points in the SHL, a decent output for a U20 centre in one of Europe’s top leagues. This past season, he made the jump to North America in the AHL playoffs and is expected to be an AHL regular in 2025–26. While he currently projects as a third-line centre in the NHL, he does offer some intriguing offensive upside for a 32nd overall pick.
2022 – Reid Schaefer – Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers once again picked in the 32nd slot in 2022, drafting winger Reid Schaefer. Schaefer was always a low upside pick here after posting 58 points in 66 WHL games in his draft year. He hasn’t really done anything to dispel that notion over the past couple years, either. He saw his WHL point total rise to just 61 points in his D+1 season, and then had an underwhelming 21 points in the AHL in 2023–24, his D+2 season.
This past year, he did show some flashes with 14 points in 19 AHL games before getting injured, but overall, Schaefer looks like a long shot for an NHL role and a miss at 32nd.
2021 – Nolan Allan – Chicago Blackhawks
Defenceman Nolan Allen is currently the last 32nd overall pick to play NHL games. Selected by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2021, Allen is a pure shutdown defensive defenceman. His point production at the WHL was never super impressive, seeing his production actually drop in his D+2 season to just 27 points in 57 games.
However, after making the jump to the pro ranks in 2023, Allen has logged 80 AHL games as well as 43 NHL games this past season. His NHL future is likely as a bottom pairing defender, but anytime you can draft an NHL regular at 32nd, it should be considered a win.
2020 – William Wallinder – Detroit Red Wings
Back in 2020, the 32nd overall pick was technically part of the second round as the NHL only had 31 teams. With the first pick of the second round, the Detroit Red Wings selected defenceman William Wallinder. Since being picked, Wallinder has played major roles for both his SHL team and his AHL team after coming to North America in 2022.
He’s become a staple for the Grand Rapids Griffins in the AHL, but has yet to see a game of NHL action. Wallinder has the talent to become a bottom-pairing defender one day, but a future in the NHL is far from a guarantee, and he may just be a career AHLer.
How often do 32nd overall picks make the NHL?
For a better look at how often 32nd overall draft picks become NHL players, let’s take a look at how many 32nd overall picks since the turn of the century have played NHL games, played in at least 200 NHL games, and have registered at least 200 points in the NHL.
I’ll exclude the last three drafts from 2022 to 2024, as it’s too early to include those picks. That leaves us with 21 total 32nd overall picks between the 2000 and 2021 drafts.
| Metric | 32nd Overall Picks (Between 2000 and 2021) |
|---|---|
| Played NHL games | 16 of 21 |
| >200 NHL GP | 5 of 20* |
| >200 NHL points | 2 of 20* |
| >0.5 P/GP | 2 of 20* |
*Goaltenders are not included in the total.
More often than not, you’ll be getting a player who will play at least some games in the NHL after being drafted. Overall, 16 of the 21 players selected at 32nd overall suited up in the NHL at some point. With that said, the number should come with an asterisk, as seven of those 16 players have played under 50 NHL games. The only name that could join the list one day is William Wallinder, the 2020 32nd overall pick.
When we start to look at longevity in the NHL, the numbers become very bleak. Not including goalies, only five of 20 players selected 32nd overall between 2000 and 2021 have played over 200 NHL games. Those players are Shane Pinto, Mattias Samuelsson, Christian Fischer, Dave Bolland, and Derek Roy. Nolan Allan is currently 157 games away and could join the club within a couple years.
Point production of 32nd overall picks
If the games played numbers weren’t bad enough, the point totals are even worse. Only two of 20 skaters selected 32nd overall from 2000 to 2021 have posted at least 200 points in the NHL. The two players are Bolland and Roy. Roy is the only one with over 250 points in the NHL, sitting at 524 NHL points when he retired. Pinto is the only other player with a good shot of joining that list, currently sitting at 107 points.
Of the 20 skaters selected 32nd overall, Pinto and Roy are the only ones who have produced at a 0.5 point per game rate or higher in their career. Roy’s career 0.71 points per game rate is the highest of any 32nd overall pick since 2000, and translates to around a 58-point pace across an 82-game season. All of this is to say, don’t count on drafting a star player at 32nd overall.
Most notable 32nd overall picks in NHL history
Throughout the history of the NHL draft, here are the most notable players selected 32nd overall. The pickings were incredibly slim here, so I selected any players who had long NHL careers instead of only those who had All-Star or top-of-the-lineup level careers.
| Year | Player |
|---|---|
| 2004 | Dave Bolland |
| 2001 | Derek Roy |
| 1993 | Jay Pandolfo |
| 1985 | Eric Weinrich |
| 1979 | Lindy Ruff |
As mentioned, it’s been a rough go for the 32nd overall pick across NHL history. By my count, there hasn’t been a single star-level talent selected in the slot, and only a handful of noteworthy careers. The most notable player would be Roy, who was a legitimate top-of-the-lineup player at the start of his career but failed to maintain it for longer than a few seasons.
Every other name on the above list had a long NHL career and/or playoff success, but none of the other four names were anything more than middle-of-the-lineup players even at their peaks. It’s also worth mentioning how rare a noteworthy career even comes from the 32nd overall spot. Only two players selected at 32nd in the 2000s have had noteworthy NHL careers, and none since Dave Bolland was picked in 2004.
A longshot pick
It’s fair to say the Flames have their work cut out for them selecting 32nd overall. Across the history of the NHL draft, it’s been incredibly rare and arguably impossible to find star-level talent with the 32nd pick. If the Flames hope to land a future impact player with the slot, they’ll need a lot of luck on their side come draft night.
