With the regular season coming to a close last Thursday and the playoffs in full swing, we officially have some very real clarity on where the Calgary Flames will likely be picking in the first round of the 2025 NHL draft.
As far as draft picks are concerned, the Flames pick looks to be on the way to Montreal, but their other two picks now depend on the results of the playoffs. Last week we took a look at the best case scenario’s for each pick in the first round, and below we’ll provide an update on where things stand as it is.
Calgary’s own pick – 16th overall (transfers to MTL)*
As we’ve known for awhile now, Montreal will be getting Calgary’s first-round pick as a result of the Sean Monahan trade in 2022. The Flames only hope of retaining the pick was to finish in the bottom 10, which became mathematically impossible long before the season ended. Luckily, the Flames made sure they handed Montreal the worst possible pick of eliminated teams.
The Flames closed out the season on their hottest run of the year, finishing with a 7–1–2 record in their final 10 games. The hot streak ensured the Flames would finish as the highest ranking team outside of the playoffs, as they locked up the 16th overall pick for the second time in three years.
Funny enough, Calgary actually finished the season higher than both Montreal and New Jersey in the standings, finishing 15th in the NHL. However with a weaker Eastern playoff race, both Montreal and New Jersey made the playoffs despite finishing with less points. More on that in a bit.
As the Flames finished with the 16th overall pick and Florida made the playoffs, Calgary will be handing Montreal the 16th overall selection in the draft unless they get some lottery luck. The Flames have the worst lottery odds of any eliminated team at just 0.5%, so they’ll need to strike gold in order to jump up to 6th overall and retain their pick. In other words, Montreal will be on the clock at 16.
New Jersey Devils pick – 18th overall*
Had Jack Hughes gone down with a season ending injury even a week earlier than he did, the Flames almost certainly would be looking at a draft pick in the 11–15 range from the New Jersey Devils. The Devils plummeted down the standings to close out the year, finishing just two points out of ninth place in the East. As mentioned above, they actually ended the season lower in the standings than Calgary, but as a playoff team their draft slot will be lower by default.
As it stands, New Jersey entered the playoffs as the second lowest ranked team ahead of only the Montreal Canadiens. As such, they are currently slated to hand Calgary the 18th overall pick in June’s draft. New Jersey will now need to make the Conference Finals to drop their pick any further. If you watched them in game one against Carolina yesterday, you know the odds of that are slim to none.
Florida Panthers draft pick – 22nd overall*
With a 99.5% chance that Calgary will be sending their own pick to Montreal, they will keep Florida’s pick instead. The Panthers very nearly slipped all the way down to a Wild Card spot to close the season, finishing just one point ahead of the Ottawa Senators for the final Atlantic Division playoff spot. League-wide, they finished 11th in the NHL and just two points ahead of Calgary.
Given their standing slot to close the season, they are currently slated to give Calgary the 22nd overall selection in the first round. Unlike New Jersey, Florida has a very real chance of going on a deep playoff run which could drop their pick to the very bottom of the first round. With that said they’d need to make the Conference Final to bump their pick down at all given their spot in the standings, so the odds are still in the Flames favour to receive the 22nd overall pick for now.
The first-rounders the Flames own
With the Flames first-round pick very likely heading to Montreal barring some incredible lottery luck, they’ll have to wait until the second half of the first round to get to the podium. Here’s a summary of their current situation in the first round.
- Their own pick, 16th overall will be transferred to Montreal
- The New Jersey Devils’ pick, 18th overall will belong to Calgary
- The Florida Panthers pick, 22nd overall will belong to Calgary
Worst case scenario avoided
All things considered, the way the Flames first-round picks landed this year can be considered a win under the circumstances. The absolute worst case scenario of handing Montreal the 11th overall pick in the draft and receiving the 32nd pick from Florida instead was avoided. Instead the Flames will be handing Montreal the 16th overall selection, which is essentially a lottery pick by that time in the draft.
Calgary even finished ahead of New Jersey in the standings and only two points behind the Panthers which seemed impossible back in October, but has ensured they won’t be sliding back too far in the first round barring some unlikely playoff runs. Only moving from 16th to 22nd under the the Monahan trade conditions should be considered a big win, as well as picking up the 18th overall pick from New Jersey for Jacob Markstrom.
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