Whether the 2024–25 regular season was a success or not for the Calgary Flames can be debated, but a fact that cannot be debated is that the Flames ended up finishing in the worst possible spot when looking at their first-round draft picks.
Heading into the season, the Flames owned three first-rounders: their own, the Florida Panthers’ pick, and the New Jersey Devils’ pick. There were conditions on all of them. Here’s what the best case scenarios are for every pick. But first, let’s review how the NHL draft order works.
How the NHL draft order works
It’s very formulaic, and it goes like this:
- Group 1: Teams that did not make the playoffs
- Group 2: Teams that were eliminated in the first two rounds of the playoffs, and did not win their division in the regular season
- Group 3: Division winners in the regular season that did not advance to the conference finals
- Group 4: Conference finalists
- Group 5: Stanley Cup Final runner up
- Group 6: Stanley Cup champion
New Jersey Devils first-round pick
This pick was acquired from the Devils in the trade that sent Jacob Markstrom to New Jersey for Kevin Bahl and a first-round pick. The condition on this pick was that it was top-10 protected, meaning if the pick was in the top-10 of the 2025 draft, it would shift to 2026 where it was unprotected.
The Devils finished 16th in the NHL and made the playoffs, so it is not possible for this pick to be in the top-10. The Flames will keep this pick. However, the Devils did not win their division, so they could, at best, fit into Group 2.
The Devils pick can be as high as 17th in the upcoming draft if these conditions are met:
- The Devils are eliminated in the first or second round of the playoffs
- The Montreal Canadiens advance to the conference finals
The most likely scenario is that the Devils and Canadiens are eliminated in the first two rounds, in which case the Devils pick would be 18th overall in the upcoming draft.
Florida Panthers first round
The Panthers pick will be kept by the Flames. The Flames are obligated to send the better of their pick and the Florida pick to the Canadiens, with both picks being top-10 protected. Neither the Flames or Panthers finished bottom-10 and the Flames pick is higher, so unless the Flames win the draft lottery, the Canadiens would get that pick and the Flames keep the Florida pick. Let’s assume the Flames don’t win the lottery.
The Panthers finished 11th overall but did not win their division, so best case scenario is they also fit into Group 2 like the Devils.
The Panthers pick can be as high as 18th if these conditions are met:
- The Montreal Canadiens or New Jersey Devils advance to the conference finals (only one can)
- The Ottawa Senators advance to the conference finals
- The St. Louis Blues and Minnesota Wild advance to the conference finals
The most likely scenario is that the Panthers, Canadiens, Devils, Blues, and Wild all are eliminated in the first two rounds of the playoffs, in which case the Panthers pick would be 22nd overall.
Calgary Flames first-round pick
The Flames pick will go to the Canadiens if we assume the Flames don’t win the lottery. The Flames will have the lowest lottery odds out of every team, but if they do win the lottery, their pick can be as high as sixth overall since they can only move up a maximum of 10 slots in the draft order. So in the most unlikely but best case scenario, the Flames retain their pick and draft sixth overall.
The most likely scenario is that the Flames lose this pick to Montreal and it’s 16th overall.
What did the The Win Column team make of how the Flames’ season ended? Did our rivals at The Oil Rig rub it in too much or is there common ground on what’s next for both teams? Check out the latest episode of our Battle of Alberta podcast, Fuel and Fire, here!
A look at the picks heading into the postseason
All said and done, the Flames could luck out and pick 17th and 18th, but this would require timely playoff eliminations. Realistically, expect one pick to be in the late teens and one to be in the early 20s. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see draft day trades come the NHL Draft, which could change everything.
We’ll have to wait for a long postseason where the Flames barely missed out on before the draft comes around.
