Yes, you read that correctly. There is an ever so slight possibility this season that the Calgary Flames will make the playoffs and the Edmonton Oilers will not. Frankly, this has been a very strange season for Flames fans, so that scenario playing out would cap it off perfectly.
When I say it’s been a strange season, I mean that the team was not expected to be contending for the playoffs, but they are. The Flames moved a lot of their long-time players since the start of last season and were expected to falter as a result. Instead, they are currently ninth in the NHL’s Western Conference.
The Flames are in the middle of the pack in goals against with 225. This is due to the superb play of rookie goaltender Dustin Wolf. Among goalies who have played at least 25 games, Wolf’s 0.911 save percentage is 11th in the league, and his 2.62 goals against average is 17th. On the flip side, though, the Flames are third-last in the league in goals scored, with 203. Only the Nashville Predators and San Jose Sharks have scored fewer goals.
So how is it that the Flames—the only team in the bottom five of the NHL for goals scored that has not yet been eliminated—are in a position to knock out a team that has two of the best hockey players in the world? Let’s find out!
Scenario 1: Oilers go 0–5–0, finish with 93 points
Considering the Oilers have two games left against the Sharks, this scenario is very unlikely to play out. Humour me anyway, though. If the Oilers go 0–5–0 the rest of the season, they’ll finish with 93 points. The Oilers hold the tie-breaker over the Flames, Minnesota Wild, and St. Louis Blues, and all of these teams need to make the playoffs for the Oilers to fall out.
In this scenario, the Flames need seven points in their remaining five games; they can do no worse than 3–1–1. They do have games against the Sharks and the Anaheim Ducks, though. These are games the Flames can’t afford to lose at this point in the season, so let’s assume they win both. That means they need to go 1–1–1 against the Wild, Vegas Golden Knights, and Los Angeles Kings. We just saw the Flames steal a point away from Vegas, so it’s certainly possible they can do it again.
The Blues need just one point in their remaining three games, and they play the Oilers tonight. Since this is the scenario where the Oilers lose all their remaining games, the Blues will have done their job. That brings us to the Wild, who have 91 points and need three in their remaining four games. They also have matchups with the Sharks and the Ducks. They can afford to lose to the Flames, provided they win both of those.
In short, if the Oilers go 0–5–0 to end the year, the Flames need to finish no worse than 3–1–1, and the Wild need to finish no worse than 1–2–1. The Blues are a lock in this scenario after downing the Oilers tonight. This would see the Flames finish third in the Pacific with the Blues and Wild taking the two wild card positions.
Scenario 2: Oilers finish with 96 points
This scenario is the absolute worst-case for the Flames. The Flames can only reach 97 points if they finish 5–0–0. As I mentioned earlier, the Oilers hold the tie-breaker. If the Oilers finish any better than 1–3–1, they will clinch a playoff berth.
So, if the Oilers finish 1–3–1 or 0–2–3, they’ll jump up to 96 points. That means the Flames will have to win the rest of their games. That’s wins over the Ducks, Wild, Sharks, Golden Knights, and Kings. It’s a very tall ask and probably even less likely to occur than the first scenario.
The Blues would need four points in their remaining three games to pass the Oilers. They would need to go 2–1–0 or 1–0–2 at a minimum. Ideally, they still knock off the Oilers tonight. They also have games against the Seattle Kraken and Utah Hockey Club, so it’s possible they still do their part.
Sitting at 91 points with four games left, the Wild would need six points. They’d have to finish at least 3–1–0 or 2–0–2. This is where it gets a little tricky. Either way, they have to lose to the Flames, whether in regulation or overtime. But they have games against the Sharks, Vancouver Canucks, and Ducks, so it’s possible for them to do their part, too.
If the Oilers finish with 96 points, the Flames, Blues, and Wild need to reach 97 points to knock them out. That’s 10 points in five games for the Flames, four points in three games for the Blues, and six points in four games for the Wild.
Scenarios three and 4: Oilers finish with 94 or 95 points
Now that I’ve covered the two extremes—where the Oilers fail to record a point in their last five games or the Flames win all of their remaining games—let’s take a quick look at the two in-between scenarios. These ones require that the Oilers get either one or two points to close out the year.
Scenario 3: Oilers finish 0–4–1, 94 points
The Oilers finishing with 94 points means they’re getting just one point in five games. That’s a record of 0–4–1 to finish the season and requires the Flames, Blues, and Wild to all reach 95 points. For the Flames, that’s eight points in five games. They can either go 4–1–0 or 3–0–2, but they absolutely cannot afford to lose more than once in regulation.
The Blues would need two points to pass the Oilers. Much like the first scenario, a win against them tonight takes care of that. The Wild would need four points in four games, which is very doable against the Sharks and Ducks.
Scenario 4: Oilers finish with 95 points
This scenario sees the Oilers finish 1–4–0 or 0–3–2. No matter what, we’re hoping for a lot of losing on their part to end the season. Finishing with 95 points means the Flames, Blues, and Wild each need 96. That’s nine points in five games for the Flames. They would have very little room for error, needing to post a record no worse than 4–0–1.
The Blues would need three points, and it’s ideal—as with all of these scenarios—that two of them come against the Oilers tonight. After that, they’d just need two points against the Kraken and Utah Hockey Club.
The Wild will need five points in four games, and they have a couple of options for reaching that goal. A 2–1–1 or even 1–0–3 record does the trick. Again, with games against the Sharks and Ducks, they should be able to do their part.
Flames fans have something to cheer for
Whichever side of this Flames team you’re on—team tank or team playoffs—I think we can all agree that seeing any of these scenarios play out would be a spectacular end to this rollercoaster of a season. And if we get to see Zayne Parekh don the Flaming C in the process, even better!
