The Calgary Flames were dealt a tough blow last night in their overtime loss to the Edmonton Oilers. With Connor McDavid, Stuart Skinner, and Mattias Ekholm out with injuries, the game was winnable on paper, and the Flames desperately needed the two points.
Unfortunately, Leon Draisaitl returned to the lineup and turned on beast mode, scoring the game-tying and game-winning goals almost singlehandedly.
A common theme from the out-of-town scoreboard was yet another win for the St. Louis Blues, which pushed their lead over the Flames to seven points. The Flames have three games in hand, but those are now must-win games, and with the way the Blues are playing, it feels like a foregone conclusion that they will make the playoffs.
From how the end of the season appears to be going, the Flames’ best path to the playoffs may not be to pass the Blues anymore. Rather, they should set their sights on the Minnesota Wild, who have not been as good as the Blues lately.
Minnesota’s recent record and play
The Wild are 5–4–1 in their last 10 games, which is still a solid record, but nowhere close to the Blues’ 9–1–0 record on the heels of a nine-game winning streak. By all accounts, the Blues are a team deserving of a playoff spot – they have a +17 goal differential, sit 13th overall in goals for, and are actually ranked 13th overall in the NHL in points.
The Wild, on the other hand, have a -9 goal differential and are currently the only team in the NHL in a playoff spot with a negative goal differential. Since Kirill Kaprizov went down with injury, the Wild have earned just 25 points in 24 games, whereas the Blues are the best team in the NHL with 37 points in 25 games.
The Wild rank 30th overall in possession, 25th in expected goals share, and 27th in scoring chance share. They are a team that the Flames may be able to catch.
Minnesota’s upcoming schedule
The Wild have eight games remaining on the calendar. They play three playoff teams and five non-playoff teams; however, outside of one game each against the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks, every non-playoff opponent is a team still in the race and fighting hard to earn a wild card spot.
As well, one of those games is a head-to-head matchup with the Flames which could be the biggest game of the year for both teams.
It’s possible
If the Flames can take care of business, this is how they could pass Minnesota in the standings:
| Date | Opponent | Result | MIN Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31-Mar | NJD | L | 87 |
| 02-Apr | NYR | L | 87 |
| 04-Apr | NYI | W | 89 |
| 06-Apr | DAL | L | 89 |
| 09-Apr | SJS | W | 91 |
| 11-Apr | CGY | L | 91 |
| 12-Apr | VAN | L | 91 |
| 15-Apr | ANA | W | 93 |
| Date | Opponent | Result | CGY Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31-Mar | COL | L | 80 |
| 01-Apr | UTA | W | 82 |
| 03-Apr | ANA | W | 84 |
| 05-Apr | VGK | L | 84 |
| 07-Apr | SJS | W | 86 |
| 09-Apr | ANA | W | 88 |
| 11-Apr | MIN | W | 90 |
| 13-Apr | SJS | W | 92 |
| 15-Apr | VGK | L | 92 |
| 17-Apr | LAK | W | 94 |
Is this a long shot? Yes. But if the Wild continue to play mediocre hockey, it’s definitely possible. The Flames absolutely need to cash in every single expected win they can, including big wins against the Wild head-to-head and another unexpected win along the way, perhaps against the Los Angeles Kings in the season finale. Anything short of that will require the Wild to drop a game they shouldn’t.
The dream isn’t dead just yet. The Flames now need to set their sights on the more vulnerable Wild team rather than the surging Blues.
