Back in August 2022, former Calgary Flames General Manager Brad Treliving mortgaged part of the team’s future in a completely boneheaded move. He dealt fan-favourite Sean Monahan to the Montreal Canadiens, along with a conditional first-round draft pick for future considerations.
To see a favourite dealt for future considerations is in and of itself a hard slap to the face. It’s a very tough pill to swallow. To see a high draft pick dealt alongside him makes it so much worse.
A brief rundown of the Monahan trade
Future considerations did not make much of an impact in Calgary. The Flames moved it to the Ottawa Senators months later at the 2023 trade deadline for Latvian defenceman Kristian Rubins. Rubins had a three-game stint with the Calgary Wranglers that year before heading back overseas.
Monahan, on the other hand, has had a resurgence following surgeries. He put up 19 goals and 52 points in 74 games across two seasons for the Habs. This convinced the Winnipeg Jets to send Montreal a first-rounder in 2024 and a conditional third-rounder in 2027 for his services. He was solid in Winnipeg, scoring 13 goals and 24 points in 34 games.
Then, Monahan signed with the Columbus Blue Jackets last summer to reunite with his friend, the late Johnny Gaudreau. Tragedy struck, and Johnny was taken from us way too soon, but Monahan has somehow managed to go on and become a key player for the Jackets this year. He had 14 goals and 41 points in 41 games before going down with a wrist injury in early January. Since returning, he has two points in one game.
Winning for the right reasons
Monahan’s success only compounds what has become an extremely difficult trade for Flames fans to deal with. Many fans would rather see the team win games to make the pick worse. On the flip side, I see fans commenting how devastating it would be if the Canadiens get a pick in the 11 to 13 range.
I argue that winning to mess with another team is not a good reason to win hockey games. I certainly hope management hasn’t been actively trying to win just because of that pick. The Flames should not dictate what they do based on how it impacts any other team besides themselves.
For those who want to see the team win this year, it should be for the right reason. Success is good for developing young players; there’s no doubt about that. This is a reason I can get behind for winning games.
Why losing this year isn’t a horrible thing
I want to see the Flames lose this year, and I am not shy about supporting the tank. I don’t want them to get any false ideas about what they are and mortgage more of the future to win now. Outside of Dustin Wolf and Zayne Parekh, they sorely lack game-breaking talent. The best way to get this is through the draft, and the 2026 draft has at least one exceptional talent at the top end: Gavin McKenna.
As built, this team won’t compete for championships. We’ve seen time and again this season how they fare against the real contenders. This isn’t a team to build around for the future. It’s a team you invest in to squeak into the playoffs and then hope for a miracle. It’s kind of like painting your car when the engine is on its last legs.
I want to see sustained success built around star players found almost exclusively in the draft. If the Canadiens get a pick just outside the top 10 this year in the process? So be it. Hats off to Kent Hughes for some great work.
Success rate of first-round draft picks
As a fanbase, we have spent too much time worrying about what will become of this pick. Just let it go. It’s gone, and winning games and maybe sneaking into the playoffs won’t change that. The Flames would need to advance to the Western Conference final to make any meaningful change to where the pick lands. A loss in the first or second round guarantees a pick around 17 or 18 for the teams that just snuck in.
Is giving up 18th overall really that much worse than 11th overall? The Hockey Writers broke down the success rate of draft picks back in January. It’s pretty eye-opening stuff. We knew it’s a tall order to make the NHL, but their data really underscores that point.
Historically, the 11th overall pick has a 58.3% chance to play at least 300 games in the NHL. It also has a 55.0% chance to score at least 100 points in the NHL, which drops to just a 30% chance to score 300 points. Some of the most notable players drafted 11th overall are Mikko Rantanen and Teemu Selanne.
The 18th overall pick has a 36.6% chance of playing at least 300 NHL games. It has a 40.0% chance of scoring 100+ points and a 15.0% chance of scoring 300+ points. Zach Parise and Bobby Clarke are two of the most notable 18th-overall picks. Is giving up this pick really all that much worse than giving up 11th overall?
The NHL draft is a gamble
No one can truly know what they’re getting out of the draft. It’s funny; anti-tankers will tell you that it’s a gamble just to get a top pick because of the draft lottery. Then they’ll argue that there’s no guarantee a player selected that high will become a game-changer—see the likes of Sam Bennett and Alexandre Daigle.
Here’s where the humour comes in: some of these same people will try to convince you that the Flames need to win so that Montreal gets a lesser chance of drafting a future NHLer or future star NHLer. I’d rather take the gamble on drafting a franchise cornerstone at the top of the draft than worry about Montreal’s extra ~20% chance of drafting an NHLer.
That’s why I don’t want to see the Flames sneak into the playoffs. I don’t think they’re capable of doing much damage, and I don’t want management to gamble away future number-one picks. I want a future where the Flames are perennial Stanley Cup contenders, not an “anything can happen in the playoffs” mentality.
It’s long past time to forget about the pick. It’s gone, and so is the man who traded it. Let’s move on and focus on supporting our team, not worrying about how it might affect another team.
Photo by Chase Agnello-Dean/NHLI via Getty Images
