The Calgary Flames have had a season of transitioning this year. Taking steps in their retool, the Flames have started to use their younger players in more prominent roles. Overall, the outlook for the team has become more hopeful, with draft picks having great years, including 2024 first-round pick Zayne Parekh.
In the NHL, Dustin Wolf is looking like the goalie it was hoped he would be and Matt Coronato is reaching that goal-scoring potential he was drafted for. Coronato has had an incredible journey this season, starting as the 13th forward and working his way to a comfortable top-six role.
The beginning of the season
Matt Coronato started the season on the opening night roster for the Flames, looking to make an impact after a somewhat disappointing rookie year. A spot alongside Ryan Lomberg and Justin Kirkland on the fourth line is where Coronato found himself for the first handful of games.
The first game against the Edmonton Oilers saw him pick up no points, but the second game went much better against the Chicago Blackhawks. Coronato picked up the opening goal and added an empty-net goal at the end of the game. The next three games, he would go pointless. On October 25, 2024, Coronato was assigned to the Calgary Wranglers of the AHL, with Yegor Sharangovich returning from injury.
This decision was a controversial one as although the production wasn’t anything special, Coronato looked comfortable at the NHL level. The underlying numbers were great as well, and there wasn’t much to argue against. He was too good for the AHL. Thankfully, he only lasted two games with the Wranglers as he was suiting up for the Flames game only a week after he was sent down.
Coronato’s return to the NHL
The first two games back against the New Jersey Devils and Edmonton Oilers didn’t go his way production-wise, as he picked up no points again. The game that really set off Coronato this season was the following against the Montreal Canadiens. He picked up the late game-tying goal in the third period and then scored seven seconds into overtime. He would then pick up three points in the next three games, and suddenly, things were starting to look much better.
When the calendar switched over to 2025, Coronato had accumulated a solid number of points. In 32 games, Coronato was sitting with seven goals and 17 points, which had already comfortably surpassed his prior season totals in two fewer games.
Where we are currently
Since we have entered the year 2025, Coronato has suited up for another 32 games for the Flames. His production has improved to 13 goals and 20 points in those said 32 games. Just yesterday, he picked up two goals against his hometown team, the New York Islanders. Coronato has had his fair share of pointless streaks, but none has been as long as the five-game pointless streak that came at the very start of the season.
He has bounced around the lineup, but at this point, he is comfortably inside the team’s top-six forward group. Most of his time has been spent alongside Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman, whose leadership and mature game on the ice have probably done wonders for Coronato’s NHL development.
Now, Coronato sits on the team’s first line with the hot Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri. He’s riding a three-game goal streak with four goals and five points in his last five games. In the 77 games Coronato should play this season, he is on pace for 24 goals and 45 points and may even surpass that with how much he’s been on fire as of late.
Watching Coronato, you can tell his confidence at the NHL level has developed to where it needs to be. Last season, he just didn’t look comfortable and wasn’t making the impact you hoped someone with his skill set would. That split season between the AHL and NHL did wonders for his development.
Coronato already has a deadly shot that is very likely the best on the Flames roster when everything that goes into a shot is considered. His positioning is much better, and overall, his game is much more rounded.
A breakdown of Coronato’s season analytically
We’ll be taking a look at some charts via HockeyViz.com to view how Coronato’s season looks on the analytical side. With these charts, the darker the red, the more shots are being generated, and the darker the blue, the fewer shots are being generated. So, for the offensive zone, the more red, the better, and for the defensive zone, the more blue, the better.
Isolated Impact
Comparing Coronato’s improvement from season to season, we’ll ignore his one game from 2022–23. This season, Coronato has -4.4% xGF in the offensive zone with -1.3% xGA in the defensive zone. The negative score in the offensive zone is surprising, but that’s likely coming from the fact that not much is being generated in the slot, which is the most dangerous area. He’s still generating good amounts from the right side.
When you compare it to the 2023–24 season, it’s still a massive improvement. The -9.7% xGF going to -4.4% is a change of +5.3%, which is a great step forward for Coronato. The defensive side of the puck won’t be a crazy focus of Coronato throughout his career, but a -1.3% xGA is still a good score. It’s a decently above-average score, and it will always be nice to see a player with good two-way play.
Flames with and without Coronato
Now, peeking over at the Flames’ 5v5 offence and defence with and without Coronato, it paints a much better picture of how impactful Coronato has been this season. We can find the with on the left side and the without on the right side.
Starting with offensive zone at 5v5, Coronato brings a lot to the Flames compared to when he is off the ice. With him, the Flames have a +4% xGF score and heavily improved xGF/60. The entire middle of the ice becomes dangerous, with shots coming from every side. Once again, the slot chances could be better but that’s a whole problem for the team.
Now, looking at the without, the Flames’ xGF score drops down 10% to -6%. All the generation in the middle of the ice completely evaporates, and the only improvement is seen at the corner of the zones. While the Flames’ offence is still weak with Coronato, it’s heavily improved as well.
The defensive end also sees improvement. With Coronato, the 5v5 defence sits at a +1% xGA with most of the shots coming from weaker areas. The score is still not great for the defensive zone, but compared to the without, it stands strong. The Flames’ defence drops to a +4% xGA without Coronato, which is a difference of +3%. It’s not a huge change, but worse will always be worse.
A spectacular season for Matt Coronato
The 2024–25 season was crucial for Matt Coronato. Before his rookie season in 2023–24, Coronato lit up the preseason, so expectations were set high. He failed to meet them, spending most of his time in the AHL. However, that seemed to his development wonders.
Coronato started this year on the fourth line and in the AHL, but upon a second chance, he took full control. A short stint in the AHL saw Coronato come up full in the NHL at the very start of November.
By the new year, Coronato had generated seven goals and 17 points in 32 games, and the year 2025 has treated him even better. With 13 goals and 20 points in the same amount of games, it is comfortable to say Coronato has arrived. His underlying numbers have also heavily improved, and there’s not much to knock Coronato for.
Coronato’s shot has already become a lethal weapon for the Flames. His confidence and positioning have matured since last season. Playmaking abilities, skating, and compete have all seen improvements, too.
Coronato’s season has made it all but sure that he will be a key piece to the Flames’ future. He will, for sure, serve as a top-six piece for the Flames for years to come. Any potential doubts that people had due to last season can be comfortably lifted. Coronato has created an entertaining game and has good levels of potential.
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