Love it or hate it, the Calgary Flames are in the thick of the playoff race right now. With 14 games left, they sit two points behind the St. Louis Blues—with two games in hand—for the second wild card spot in the Western Conference. They’ll also have to leapfrog the Vancouver Canucks, who have a point more but have played one game more.
Hot on the Flames’ heels is the Utah Hockey Club. They’re two points behind, but the Flames have a game in hand on them.
A quick look at the schedules
All four of these clubs are in action tonight. Our Flames visit Long Island to take on the New York Islanders. The Canucks will also be in the New York area, taking on the New York Rangers. The Blues host the Chicago Blackhawks in a must-win matchup. Leaving two points on the board against one of the worst teams in the league is not an option for a playoff hopeful. Utah hosts the Tampa Bay Lightning in a tough matchup.
The Flames and Utah play each other once over the rest of the season, but that’s the only matchup the Flames have against these teams they’re competing with. They do have a pair of matchups with the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks, as well as a matchup with the Seattle Kraken. The Flames can’t afford to drop points in these games this late into the season.
The Blues have four easier matchups against the Blackhawks, Kraken, and Nashville Predators, and they end their season hosting Utah. The Canucks have a tougher schedule, with just three games against the Ducks, Kraken, and Sharks. Lastly, Utah has a schedule mixing some of the best teams, some of the worst, and a pair of games against the Flames and Blues. Check out our more in-depth breakdown of the teams’ remaining schedules!
The Flames certainly have their work cut out for them over the next few weeks! There’s also an outside chance they crack the top three in the Pacific division. A Los Angeles Kings win in Chicago on Thursday night made that much more unlikely, though. The Kings now have eight points more than the Flames and a game in hand, so it’s not likely they fall off enough for the Flames to overtake them.
The Winnipeg Jets would be a tough first-round matchup
Assuming the season ended today and the Flames are in the second wild card spot, they’d face the top team in the West: the Winnipeg Jets. Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has been the best goalie in the NHL this year. He has the most wins (40) as well as the best save percentage (0.924) and goals against average (2.06) among goalies who have played at least 15 games.
The Flames are 1–2–0 against the Jets this season, who currently sit second in the NHL and boast the best goal differential in the NHL with a +78. The two teams have only met in the playoffs once, in the qualifying round of the 2019–20 playoffs. The Flames won the best-of-five series in four games.
Unfortunately, that’s not something this team can hang its hat on. While the Jets roster hasn’t changed a lot, the Flames only have captain Mikael Backlund and defenceman Rasmus Andersson left. This is an entirely new roster that does not have the experience of having much success against a strong Jets team. This is the most likely first-round matchup. It’s not likely the Flames will grab a playoff spot higher than the second wild card. On the flip side, it’s hard to see the Jets fall out of first in the West at this point.
As I mentioned, if the Flames can punch their playoff ticket, the Jets are their most likely first-round opponent. And they’re one of the toughest opponents out there right now.
What if the Jets fall out of first?
If the Jets implode over their remaining 12 games, then it’s most likely going to be one of the Dallas Stars or Vegas Golden Knights who overtake them. The Stars are 10 points back with two games in hand, while the Golden Knights are 12 points back with two games in hand. It would take a lot of Jets losses and a lot of Stars/Golden Knights wins for one of these scenarios to play out. Would either of these teams be a better matchup for the Flames?
The Flames are 0–1–1 against the Stars so far this season, with their third and final tilt coming up on Thursday. The two teams have met twice in the playoffs in recent memory, with the Stars coming out on top of a 2019–20 first-round bout in six games. More recently, the Flames won a memorable first-round series in 2021–22 in seven games, outlasting the incredible play of Jake Oettinger. The Flames only have Backlund, Andersson, Blake Coleman, and Dan Vladar remaining from that series, though.
Of these two teams, the Golden Knights might be the worse matchup for the Flames. They’re currently 0–2–0 against the Golden Knights this season and were shut out in both games. They get a pair of opportunities to redeem themselves to close out the season, hosting Vegas on April five and again on April 15. These teams have never met in the playoffs, and I don’t think I’m ready to see it.
Stars, Golden Knights two of NHL’s top teams
The Stars currently sit third in the NHL with 90 points and a +51 goal differential. While Oettinger has been solid—posting a 31–15–3 record with a 0.906 SV% and a 2.55 GAA—his backup, Casey DeSmith, has been even better when called on. The Stars also have four skaters with 25 or more goals this year.
Looking at the Golden Knights, they’re fifth in the NHL and only have two players with 25+ goals, but their leading scorer has 82 points. Adin Hill has been solid in goal, posting a 25–11–5 record with a 0.907 SV% and a 2.50 GAA.
I don’t think either of these matchups would be any easier for the Flames than the Jets. Not only is their work cut out for them just to make the playoffs, but they’ll have it no easier once the playoffs begin. Dustin Wolf has been a revelation for the Flames, but the team has a -22 goal differential which would be the worst among all playoff teams. They have two players with 25+ goals, and their leading scorer only has 52 points. Worse yet, only five skaters on the Flames have 30+ points right now.
I would not want to face any of these teams in the first round, but Dallas is probably the best opponent for the Flames.
Looking at some of the least likely matchups
I did say the Flames have an outside chance of taking third in the Pacific. That timeline earns them a series with the Golden Knights, the Edmonton Oilers, or the Kings. The Oilers’ goaltending has been shaky, but they have two of the best hockey players in the world in their lineup. Leon Draisaitl currently leads the NHL in goals with 49 and is second in points with 101. And then there’s that Connor McDavid fellow who is fourth in the NHL with 90 points.
The Flames are 1–1–0 against the Oilers this season, and they go head-to-head again next Saturday for maybe the last time this season. The last time these two met in the playoffs, it was a tightly contested second-round series. Just kidding! The Oilers ran away with it in five games, averaging five goals a game.
This would be yet another tough match for the Flames. While the Oilers’ goaltending is questionable, this Flames team doesn’t generate enough offence to take advantage of it. And there’s practically no way they can keep Draisaitl and McDavid quiet long enough to take four games.
An unlikely matchup with the Kings
To face the Kings, both the Kings and Flames would almost certainly have to overtake the Oilers and finish second and third in the Pacific, respectively. That, or the Kings take first in the Pacific and the Flames finish in the second wild card. The first scenario is far more likely.
This is the best matchup for the Flames. They’re already 2–0–0 against the Kings this season and only allowed one goal in each game. Their final regular season tilt is scheduled for April 17, and it has the chance to be a playoff teaser. It’s been 32 years since the Flames and Kings met in the postseason. Not that it’s relevant in any way, but the Kings took that first-round series in six.
Like the Flames, the Kings are not a high scoring team. They only have 11 more goals in one game fewer. Their leading scorer has 55 points, and they only have two skaters with 20+ goals. That’s almost identical to the Flames—as I mentioned earlier, the Flames’ leading scorer has 52 points. Too much needs to happen for us to see this matchup, though.
Flames have their work cut out for them
The Flames will have to battle hard over the rest of the regular season just to make the playoffs. If they do make it, the competition will only get tougher through April and May. A path to the conference final almost certainly goes through two of the Jets, Stars, Golden Knights, Oilers, and Colorado Avalanche. Three of those teams are currently top-five in the NHL.
With all the roster turnover the team has seen in the last couple years, the only way we can judge how the Flames stack up against this competition is by looking at this season’s results. Overall, it has not been good; the Flames are a combined 2–8–1 against those teams this season.
Who ever said the path to the Stanley Cup was easy?
