The Calgary Flames are in the midst of a dogfight for the final Western Conference playoff spot. With under 20 games left for each team, the Flames, Vancouver Canucks, St. Louis Blues, and Utah Hockey Club are all vying for the final spot available.
The Blues and Canucks are tied with 75 points, while the Flames sit with 73 points, followed closely by Utah with 71. Vancouver has the best points percentage of the four, with a 0.551 win percentage this year. However, the Flames have the most games remaining, having played 67 games of their 82.
It’s not the games but the teams they play that matter coming down the stretch. Let’s take a deeper look at who each team will be playing and how this impacts their likelihood of making the postseason.
Taking a deeper look at strength of schedule
Strength of schedule is a metric used to determine how tough the road ahead is for each team. Measured as a decimal point between zero and one, the metric used by Tankathon looks at the strength of the opposing teams relative to their standing position to assign a value for how tough the road ahead is.
At the top end of the league is the Detroit Red Wings, who play the Washington Capitals, Dallas Stars, Vegas Golden Knights, and Carolina Hurricanes once each, and the Florida Panthers twice to close out their year.
At the other end are the Flames’ opponent—the St. Louis Blues—who have only four tough games remaining. They play the Winnipeg Jets once, the Edmonton Oilers once, and the Colorado Avalanche twice in their final 13 games. games. They also face the Chicago Blackhawks, Seattle Kraken, Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings, and Utah Hockey Club once, then play the Nashville Predators twice to close off the season. Eight of their final 13 games are against teams below them in the standings.
How does the Flames’ strength of schedule stack up?
The Flames don’t have a bad end to the season, either. While they do have to play the Vegas Golden Knights twice and the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, Los Angeles Kings, Edmonton Oilers, and Minnesota Wild once apiece, they do have several easy games remaining. Having just completed their game against the New York Rangers, they have the New York Islanders, Utah Hockey Club, Seattle Kraken, and two games against the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks apiece.
Utah sits right in the middle in terms of strength of schedule. They have six difficult games and seven easier games in their final 14. The biggest challenge for them will be two games against the Tampa Bay Lightning and one against the Los Angeles Kings, Florida Panthers, Dallas Stars, and Winnipeg Jets. They also have one game against the Flames, Blues, Blackhawks, Kraken, Red Wings, and Buffalo Sabres, and two against the Predators.
Of the four teams fighting for the final spot, the Vancouver Canucks have it the most difficult. Not only do they have two games against the Vegas Golden Knights, but they also have to play the four Central division standouts in the Jets, Stars, Avalanche, and Wild. They only have one game apiece against the Sharks, Kraken, Ducks, Islanders, Rangers, and Columbus Blue Jackets.
What does this mean for the Flames’ chances of making it to the postseason?
Quite frankly, the Flames will need to look really good coming down the stretch. Not only are they going to have to win some of the easier ones—especially against the two New York teams (halfway there after last night’s win)—but they’ll have to win against tougher opponents, including the Stars, Avalanche, and ideally against the Oilers.
The Flames have not looked good against the Golden Knights since the team came into the league but will need to put up a formidable effort and hopefully take at least one of the two games against former Flame Noah Hanifin and his teammates.
This is going to prove to be a challenge. The Flames have not only not looked good coming down the stretch but have relied exceedingly on goaltender Dustin Wolf to bail them out when they’ve broken down in their own zone. He has been the best goalie the Flames have had since Miikka Kiprusoff and has been the sole reason the Flames are even in the postseason conversation 67 games into the season.
On top of that, the team is going to need to get scoring from beyond their first line. As good as Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau have been this season, they need far more run support. Yegor Sharangovich has been a shell of his former self this season, and the Flames will need him to put points on the board if they are to make it to the playoffs.
The Flames do not have a bona fide superstar in their lineup like they have in the past and will need to get scoring by committee this season. This means players like Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman, Joel Farabee, Morgan Frost, and others will need to step up and create chances offensively.
Tough battle for last playoff spot in the West
St Louis, Utah, and Vancouver all have a fighting chance to earn that last playoff spot. It is not going to be given to the Flames simply because of good goaltending. The team will need to battle down the stretch if they are to earn that spot.
And even if they do earn that final place in the playoffs, it’s going to be a big challenge to get past the first round of the playoffs, where they will likely face the Winnipeg Jets. Kyle, Connor and team are currently leading the NHL in points and will be a very tough out in the first round. The team boasts a +81 goal differential this season—the best in the league—while the Flames sit with a minus 25 on the year. While the odds don’t look great, anything can happen in the playoffs.
How they play, especially in the next three to four games, is going to dictate whether this team plays meaningful hockey in April or if the players are dusting off their golf bags for the rest of the summer. Fingers crossed, it’s the former.
