When the Calgary Flames traded Jacob Markstrom to the New Jersey Devils, they acquired a 2025 first-round pick and Kevin Bahl. Bahl has been a welcome surprise this season, solidifying himself inside the Flames’ top four. His strong defensive play has made him a great shutdown option to play alongside Rasmus Andersson. Even his offensive production has taken a step.
When the season comes to an end, Bahl will be one of four restricted free agents expiring for the Flames. Those others include Connor Zary, Matt Coronato, and Morgan Frost. So, what will the improving 24-year-old’s next contract look like?
A quick breakdown of Kevin Bahl
Before joining the Flames, Bahl was acquired by the Devils in the trade that sent Taylor Hall to the Arizona Coyotes. Bahl cracked the Devils as a future shutdown option to complement the many offensive guys they had.
As the Devils’ defence started becoming better and better, Bahl became more expendable to them. That’s how the Flames were lucky enough to receive him in trade. He’s been great in a top-four shutdown role and is looking to solidify himself in the bigger future outlook.
Looking at a chart via HockeyViz.com, Bahl has continued to be the player he was when he entered the league. He has great defensive metrics, with around a league-best -9% xGA/60. On the other hand, in the offensive zone, it’s almost the exact opposite.
Overall, Bahl is your big shutdown defenceman. He’s had criticism about not using his size correctly in the past, but he still brings a solid boom. He isn’t and shouldn’t end up as a go-to option on the Flames. However, he will be a really nice complimentary piece to the upcoming offensive-minded defencemen on the right side.
Comparable #1: Alexander Romanov
Contract: $2.75M x 3y, 3.03% of the cap
On the expiring deal of his contract, I see Alexander Romanov as a very fair comparable for Kevin Bahl. At the time of signing his contract, Romanov was just acquired by a new team in the New York Islanders and was set to play a similar role. A more booming defenceman who was acquired more for his defensive side than his offensive.
The only issue I have with drawing Romanov as a comparable with a contract is that Romanov is only a few months older than Bahl. So, the contract Romanov signs this offseason would draw as a better comparable. However, Romanov is more established than Bahl, and when he signed his current deal, he was coming off his first impactful year in a similar way to Bahl.
Comparable #2: Brandon Carlo
Contract: $4.1M x 6y, 5.03% of the cap
Brandon Carlo has been a pivotal piece to the Boston Bruins’ backend for quite some time now. He has a giant frame at 6’5″, 216 lbs, somewhat close to Bahl’s 6’6″, 230 lbs. Carlo excels with his defensive game with not much offensive production. He places his body well, blocking shots and fighting off opponents.
When he signed his contract, Carlo was just entering the league and proving himself to be a good defensive option in a very similar sense to Bahl. Carlo was also 24. Carlo is a player you can compare to Bahl quite easily with what the two bring to the table.
If Bahl had been developing in the Flames system the same way Carlo was developing in the Bruins, I’d say this is the most comparable deal; it still might be. I don’t think Bahl will get the same length, but if the cap hit is similar with a few years removed, I will not be surprised at all.
Comparable #3: Jamie Oleksiak
Contract: $2.1375M x 3y, 2.69% of the cap / $4.6M x 5y, 5.64% of the cap
For Jamie Oleksiak, I wanted to pull out two contracts for him. He’s another defenceman with a massive frame, this time outclassing Bahl by an inch and 25 pounds. A shutdown defenceman who has a little bit more offensive flair than Bahl but still not much production.
The reason for the two contracts is that the first came when he was at a much more comparable age of 25. However, he was flip-flopping between the Dallas Stars and Pittsburgh Penguins, and while he had entered the league, he wasn’t getting quite the same opportunity yet.
When it comes to the other deal, he was 28 years of age and way more established in the league. He was playing about the same role for the Stars that Bahl is playing for the Flames. Coming off a breakout playoff run and his first 20+ min average season, I see many draws, except for the age.
Comparable #4: Martin Fehervary
Contract: $2.675M x 3y, 3.20% of the cap
Another very recently signed deal, Martin Fehervary is only in year two of this contract. While slightly younger than what Bahl will be in this deal, Fehervary follows the trends that all of the other defencemen do. More defensive-minded with a booming style of play or bigger in size.
When he signed the deal, Fehervary was coming off of two seasons playing a similar role for the Washington Capitals as Bahl is for the Flames. It honestly seems low for a player such as Fehervary, but he wasn’t quite the player yet that he is now. For Bahl, I can see this being a deal to look at in terms of age, role, and finding his footing in the NHL.
Comparable #5: Josh Manson
Contract: $4.1M x 4y, 5.16% of the cap
For this contract we have to go back to 2018 when Josh Manson was with the Anaheim Ducks for it to be signed. As for a comparison, I think it’s driven by the style of play and age similarities once again. Manson was 25, Bahl will be turning 25, and they’re both shutdown defencemen.
However, Manson was definitely more established than Bahl is now. By the time Manson signed this contract, he had three full NHL seasons with 18+ minutes played on average. The year he was coming off of, he had 37 points as well, the best of any defenceman mentioned. What Manson progressed into after signing this deal is why I think it draws a comparison to Bahl. The experience difference may be why Bahl can’t score such a deal.
What will Kevin Bahl’s contract look like?
All of the defencemen we covered in this piece have strong comparisons to what Kevin Bahl should become for the Calgary Flames. A trusted shutdown defenceman who’s going to play around 20 minutes a night with penalty-killing time. He’ll be a compliment to the offensive guys that find themselves on the back end.
As for the contract, they all have fair reasoning for why Kevin Bahl might receive similar. The ones with term and higher AAV, such as Oleksiak, Manson, and Carlo, have more experience behind them but still had to include trust that these players would continue to excel with the role they were given, which I could very much see the Flames thinking of Bahl.
As for the shorter and less value ones we saw handed out to Romanov, Fehervary, and Oleksiak (again), they came due to lesser experience and not quite hitting their stride yet. They were given a contract to prove themselves worthy of more.
To me, Bahl is stuck right in the middle of both these styles of contract. He’s not quite yet established in the role he’s been playing for the Flames. No doubt that he is an NHLer, but this is his only year in a top-four role so far. He is killing it, however, and displaying a strong sense of defence in his own zone. The Flames have enough to trust him for years, but I would also understand the hesitation.
Averaging out the comparable contracts, we get a cap hit of $3.4M for four years. The average percentage of the cap is 4.13%, which is $3.9235M with the rising cap to $95.5M. For Kevin Bahl, we’re likely looking at a deal for three to four years with an AAV from $3.2M to $4.5M. My prediction is that we will see the Flames and Bahl settle at $3.75M per season for three years.
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