The Calgary Flames have defied expectations of a bottom-five finish and have put themselves in position to fight for the playoffs. At the 4 Nations Face-Off break, the Flames sit three points behind the Vancouver Canucks with equal games played.
With 27 regular season games left, how will the Flames fare? Despite a better start, the Flames are actually in a similar position to where they were a year ago. They remained in the hunt before the trade deadline and took a step back afterward, finishing ninth-last in the league.
What was the reason for their end-of-season collapse? You can point to a disgruntled Jacob Markstrom. Losing Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev certainly didn’t help. They also finished the season with a tough March schedule.
The Flames face a similar beast this season, as their schedule is very tough after they return from break. A few daunting road trips against some of the league’s best make for one of the most difficult remaining strength of schedules.
Now, it’s important to note that any team can win on any given night. Having a tougher schedule doesn’t mean you are going to lose more. But it is more statistically probable.
Average NHL strength of remaining schedule
Two sites that measure the strength of schedule remaining are PowerRankingsGuru.com and Tankathon.com. I have taken the average of both websites to limit the chance of error for one individual site. The teams have been ranked by their average score given by both websites. The higher the rank, the more difficult a team’s remaining schedule is.
The Detroit Red Wings lead the way by having the toughest ranked remaining schedules on both sites. I’ve highlighted the Flames, as well as the four teams around them in the standings—the Los Angeles Kings, Vancouver Canucks, Utah Hockey Club, and St. Louis Blues—to showcase the fight for the final playoff spots in the Western Conference.
| Rank | Team Name | PowerRankingsGuru.com | Tankathon.com | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Red Wings | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Seattle Kraken | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| T-3 | Buffalo Sabres | 3 | 4 | 3.5 |
| T-3 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 2 | 5 | 3.5 |
| 5 | New York Rangers | 5 | 6 | 5.5 |
| 6 | San Jose Sharks | 10 | 3 | 6.5 |
| 7 | New York Islanders | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 6 | 9 | 7.5 |
| 9 | Calgary Flames | 8 | 11 | 9.5 |
| 10 | Philadelphia Flyers | 9 | 13 | 11 |
| 11 | New Jersey Devils | 15 | 8 | 11.5 |
| 12 | Anaheim Ducks | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 11 | 18 | 14.5 |
| T-14 | Dallas Stars | 22 | 10 | 16 |
| T-14 | LA Kings | 12 | 20 | 16 |
| 16 | Vancouver Canucks | 23 | 12 | 17.5 |
| 17 | Minnesota Wild | 20 | 16 | 18 |
| T-18 | Boston Bruins | 17 | 21 | 19 |
| T-18 | Edmonton Oilers | 14 | 24 | 19 |
| T-20 | St. Louis Blues | 25 | 14 | 19.5 |
| T-20 | Winnipeg Jets | 16 | 23 | 19.5 |
| 22 | Nashville Predators | 18 | 22 | 20 |
| 23 | Carolina Hurricanes | 24 | 17 | 20.5 |
| T-24 | Chicago Blackhawks | 29 | 19 | 24 |
| T-24 | Utah Hockey Club | 21 | 27 | 24 |
| T-24 | Montreal Canadiens | 19 | 29 | 24 |
| 27 | Florida Panthers | 27 | 26 | 26.5 |
| 28 | Vegas Golden Knights | 30 | 25 | 27.5 |
| 29 | Washington Capitals | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 30 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 26 | 32 | 29 |
| T-31 | Colorado Avalanche | 32 | 30 | 31 |
| T-31 | Ottawa Senators | 31 | 31 | 31 |
The Flames have a tough end to the 2024–25 season
The Calgary Flames rank as the ninth-toughest remaining schedule in the league. That is the third toughest schedule in the Western Conference, behind the Seattle Kraken and San Jose Sharks. The LA Kings and Vancouver Canucks will finish the season with an easier schedule than the Flames by quite a few spots.
I look at the Utah Hockey Club as an interesting team to watch in their last 26 games. They will be getting Sean Durzi back from injury around the time the team returns from break. They also have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league. Utah sits three points behind the Flames right now while having played an extra game.
An uphill battle for Calgary
The Flames’ quest for a playoff spot isn’t going to be easy. When they return to action, they meet the Sharks at home and then head on a six-game road trip against the Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers, Carolina Hurricanes, Philadelphia Flyers, and Dallas Stars. That’s a lot of good teams right off the bat. That road trip ends the day before the trade deadline.
Depending on the results of that road trip—in which the Flames would be projected to lose most—will that change the Flames’ ideology at all on deadline day?
Things don’t get much easier after the deadline, as the Flames have a back-to-back against the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers, along with two matchups against the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche to boot. The last wild card spot has been a race between the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames so far this season. I think it’ll be between Vancouver and Utah in the end.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
