Dustin Wolf is already one of the best goaltenders in the world

It’s no secret that Dustin Wolf is having an excellent rookie season for the Calgary Flames. He has put the Flames on his back and is the main reason why the Flames are still very much in the playoff race. Wolf has generated a lot of buzz in the Calder Trophy race, and he looks like he will be the next great Flames goalie. Wolf is currently 19–11–3, has a .912 save percentage, a 2.63 GAA and two shutouts. Those around the league would agree that Wolf is one of the best rookies in the league right now, but he is more than that, Wolf is already one of the best goalies in the NHL. At 5v5, Wolf has some of the best numbers in the league. All data is from MoneyPuck.com. and are from 5v5 situations, and include goaltenders who have played at least 25 games.

Goals saved above expected

Goals saved above expected paints a good picture as to whether a goalie is providing positive value in the net. It is calculated by taking the expected goals against and subtracting the number of goals that a goalie has let in. Of all goalies who have played at least 25 games, Dustin Wolf ranks fourth in the league with 16.8 goals saved above expected. Lukas Dostal is just ahead of him with 16.9. The two other goaltenders above them are the two best goaltenders in the league this season with Connor Hellebuyck at 23.1 and Logan Thompson at 25.2.

This is great company for Dustin Wolf to be in. Understandably, the two goaltenders who will be Vezina finalists at the end of the year seem to be in a league of their own, but to be fourth in the league as a rookie goaltender is phenomenal.

GAA better than expected

GAA refers to a goalies Goals Against Average. This measures how many goals a goaltender would allow per game. Similar to the above section, the “expected” refers to what a goalie’s expected GAA would be depending on the expected goals against. Therefore, this statistic as a whole presents how many more or fewer goals a goalie lets in per game compared to what would be expected based on the shot quality that goaltender would face.

Once again, Dustin Wolf ranks in the top five in the league in this stat, having a GAA of 0.62 higher than expected at 5v5. Charlie Lindgren unsurprisingly takes the lead at 0.98, Connor Hellebuyck at 0.64, and Lukas Dostal at 0.67. Overall at 5v5, Dustin Wolf is one of the best in the league at saving more pucks than expected based on the shots he faces.

Wins above replacement

Wins above replacement (WAR) measures how many additional wins a player contributes to the team they place for compared to a player who is at a replacement level. This compares a player to an imaginary player who would just be an average performer. If a player’s WAR is positive, they are a benefit to their team, but if it a negative, they are not.

Dustin Wolf ranks fourth in the league in WAR with 2.79. At 5v5, Wolf’s performance in net has practically given the Flames three additional wins this season so far, or six extra points. Another way to think about this is, if an average goaltender was in net, the Flames would likely have 54 points instead of the 60 that they have right now. This would drop them from 17th in the league, to 27th, tied with the Anaheim Ducks for the sixth-worst team in the league.

Unsurprisingly, Logan Thompson and Connor Hellebuyck are the top two in the league in this stat. Lukas Dostal ranks just ahead of Wolf at 2.81.

Save percentage above expected

As the name suggests, this stat measures how much better a goalie’s save percentage is compared to what the expected save percentagf would be based on the shot quality that they face.

Wolf is tied with Connor Hellebuyck for second in the league for save percentage above expected. To be tied with the Vezina Trophy favourite is incredible company, and just shows Flames fans and the league as a whole the promise and ability that Wolf has. Lindgren leads the league, and Lukas Dostal is fourth in the league.

Wolf is a franchise talent

Dustin Wolf is clearly able to compete with the best of the best in the NHL, rookie or not. He is top five at 5v5 in many statistics, and the Flames wouldn’t even be in the hunt for a playoff spot if it wasn’t for him. It’s time to stop thinking of Dustin Wolf as just a really good rookie goalie.

The numbers show that not only is he one of the best rookies in the league, he is actually one of the top goalies in the world. This includes names like Andrei Vasilevsky, Jeremy Swayman, Jake Oettinger, Igor Shesterkin, Jacob Markstrom, Connor Hellebuyck, and all the other top goalies in the NHL.

As of right now, Dustin Wolf belongs in that same category.

Dustin Wolf should get some votes for the Vezina Trophy, especially if the Calgary Flames make the playoffs. After only 51 career NHL games, Wolf has cemented himself as a top-10 goalie in the league.