Data Dive: Why the Calgary Flames are Stanley Cup pretenders, not contenders

The Calgary Flames are a bit of an enigma. Each year, it seems like the Flames either make the playoffs—or just miss them—but are never good enough to go on a deep playoff run or not quite bad enough to have a top pick in the NHL entry draft. 

The highest Flames pick in franchise history was the fourth overall pick in 2014 when they drafted Sam Bennett. The next highest pick in franchise history was sixth overall, with the most recent sixth overall pick being Matthew Tkachuk in 2016. We all know how that saga ended.

Heading into the 4 Nations Face-Off, the Flames are three points out of the final wild card spot in the Western Conference. However, the underlying metrics do not suggest that they will be a good playoff team.

Let’s look at some of the underlying metrics in three key areas: goal scoring, defence, and goaltending to show that the Flames are pretenders, not contenders.

The Flames cannot score goals

The Calgary Flames have a hard time scoring goals. Let’s take a look at some of the data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Table 1¹. Table showing where the Calgary Flames rank in various offensive metrics at 5v5:

Goals For	Expected Goals For	High-Danger Goals For	Shooting Percentage	Scoring Chances For	High-Danger Chances For
30	24	28	30	18	25

As shown in Table 1, the Flames rank near the bottom of the league in several offensive metrics besides scoring chances, for which they are middle of the pack, ranking 18th. Notably, the Flames are third-last in goals for this season and, consequently, are third-last in shooting percentage.

If we look at the offence line-by-line based on time on ice, while some numbers improve, the rest are less than stellar:

Table 2. Table showing the total goals and total amount of points for the Calgary Flames compared to the league average by line:

Line	Goals	Points	Avg. Goals	Avg. Points
First Line	50	103	55	137
Second Line	47	103	38	85
Third Line	29	72	37	82
Fourth Line	12	34	18	42

Using the time on ice has limitations, such as how teams utilize certain players and team systems, but it does provide some insight into how the Flames have performed this year². 

As we can see, the Flames are below the league average for first-line, third-line, and fourth-line production in goals and points. The Flames are well above average in second-line production in terms of goals and points.

Let’s see how these numbers change when compared to the current playoff teams in the Western Conference:

Table 3. Table showing the total goals and total amount of points for the Calgary Flames compared to the average of the current playoff teams in the Western Conference:

Line	Goals	Points	Avg. Goals	Avg. Points
First Line	50	103	63	159
Second Line	47	103	38	86
Third Line	29	72	39	91
Fourth Line	12	34	19	45

As we can see, when compared to the current playoff teams in the Western Conference, the first-line, third-line, and fourth-line production gaps widen a bit further, while the second-line production is still well above average.

This kind of production outside of the second line is not nearly good enough for a team with playoff aspirations.

But the Flames can defend… right?

So the Flames have a hard time scoring, but they don’t necessarily need to score five goals a game to win a hockey game. The Flames can defend… right?

The Flames’ top defensive pairing—Rasmus Andersson and Kevin Bahl—is tied for 10th in goals against, sixth in expected goals against, first in scoring chances against, and fourth in high-danger chances against at 5v5. Not that good overall. But it is a team game, so how does the team play at 5v5?

Table 4³. Table showing where the Calgary Flames rank in various defensive metrics at 5v5:

Corsi Against	Fenwick Against	Shots Against	Scoring Chances Against	High-Danger Chances Against
18	19	15	15	T-16

As we can see, the Flames rank middle of the pack when it comes to Corsi against, Fenwick against, shots against, scoring chances against, and high-danger chances against. For a team that is pushing for a playoff spot, you would want to limit shots on net and reduce scoring chances.

The other problem is the Flames are 28th in penalty kill with 72.1%. When examining some of the underlying statistics, we can see why.

Table 5⁴. Table showing where the Calgary Flames rank in various penalty kill metrics:

Goals Against	High-Danger Goals Against	Shots Against	Scoring Chances Against	High-Danger Chances Against
1	3	5	9	8

Not surprisingly, given the Flames are 28th in penalty kill, the underlying metrics are ugly. They are the most-scored on team while on the penalty kill and are third in high-danger goals against. They also give up a lot of shots and scoring chances while on the penalty kill, ranking in the bottom third of the league in those categories.

So, how are the Flames pushing for a playoff spot?

Dustin Wolf is the hero the Flames deserve

Dustin Wolf was drafted by the Flames in the seventh round—214th overall—in the 2019 NHL entry draft. Wolf has been successful at every level he has played at. 

With the Everett Silvertips, his lowest SV% was 0.928 in his rookie year. In the 2022–23 season with the Calgary Wranglers, in 55 games, he posted a 0.932 SV%. This earned him 17 games last season with the Flames, where he posted a less-than-stellar 0.893 SV%. However, with the Wranglers that season, he posted a 0.922 SV% in 36 games.

This season, Wolf has been playing out of his skull. In 33 games, he has a 0.912 SV%, posting 19 wins and two shutouts. As a rookie. There is a reason why Wolf is in the Calder Trophy conversation with Lane Hutson and Macklin Celebrini.

With the goalie tandem of Wolf and Daniel Vladar, the Flames are third in the league in save percentage, tied for 23rd in high-danger goals against, and tied for 28th in goals against. This is the reason why the Flames are pushing for a playoff spot. Their goaltending has literally been winning the Flames games all season.

So there you have it. Why the Calgary Flames are Stanley Cup playoff pretenders. That is not necessarily a bad thing, either. The Flames have some very interesting china in their china cabinet: Zayne Parekh, Matvei Gridin, and Luke Misa, to name a few. Not to mention what seems to be the future number-one goaltender in Wolf, and good young players already playing on the Flames like Connor Zary and Matthew Coronato.

Whether the Flames squeak into the playoffs or not, exciting times are coming to the Flames.

1. Data was sorted in descending order, and the rank was taken. ↩︎
2. For the full methodology and data sources, see my Maple Leafs lack secondary scoring article. ↩︎
3. Data was sorted in descending order, and the rank was taken. ↩︎
4. Data was sorted in descending order, and the rank was taken. ↩︎

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Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire