The 2024–25 season was anticipated to be one where the Calgary Flames’ successes were measured upon player development, team culture, and NHL draft lottery odds. In other words, it appeared the rebuild was finally here.
Despite the expectations the team started hot and playoff hopes have become a real possibility. Despite some commanding wins on the back of Dustin Wolf in the last month, the team has also been plagued with back-to-back losses on three separate occasions in the new year despite only playing 12 games. This has resulted in minimal movement in the standings.
This is especially important because the Flames’ own first-round pick won’t be traded to Montreal if it’s a lottery pick. The Flames currently hold three 2025 first-round picks:
- Their own pick, which would be 16th overall if the season ended today
- The Florida Panthers pick, which would be 24th overall if the season ended today
- The New Jersey Devils pick, which would be 25th overall if the season ended today (but will defer to 2026 if the Devils finish bottom-10).
As part of the conditions in the Sean Monahan trade with the Montreal Canadiens, the better of Florida or Calgary’s picks will be transferred to the Canadians if the Flames finish outside the bottom 10. Currently the Canadiens would receive the 16th overall pick.
Current NHL standings
Since the holiday break the Flames are 8–7–0 and are one point behind the imploding Vancouver Canucks for the last wild card spot in the west.
With the Flames standing on the shoulders of their rookie goaltender and Canucks President Jim Rutherford publicly stating in the media both JT Miller and Elias Pettersson are on their way out of town, it’s likely the Flames hang around that final wild card spot unless trends change dramatically.
It seems Dustin Wolf will be seeing more and more starts and his ability to steal games for the Flames is at the very least enough to keep them in the hunt at just above .500 hockey.
The state of Calgary’s other picks
The Devils have regressed a bit in the new year, going 6–7–3 since the break. Former Flame Jacob Markstrom suffered a sprained MCL that will sideline him for up to six weeks and also prevent him from playing in the 4 Nations Face-Off for Sweden. The Devils have slid in the standings and will have an uphill battle with Markstrom out. As far as the Flames are concerned, it still seems certain New Jersey finishes outside the bottom ten with Calgary receiving the Devils’ 2025 first-round pick.
The Panthers have had a similar trajectory as the Flames since the break, going 8–7–1. In the current situation, the Panthers pick out stand as the Flames’ highest selection in the first round at 24th overall.
If the season ended this way, the Flames would give Montreal their own pick and retain Florida’s, selecting eight spots lower. Instead of having their own pick at 16th overall they would have Florida’s 24th overall pick.
Commit to the playoff push?
It seems inevitable that the 2024–25 Calgary Flames are going to prove the critics wrong. They haven’t played great hockey, not even good hockey most nights, but they’ve found a way to stay in the hunt on the backs of a young roster and a refreshed locker room culture.
However, the Flames still could fall or rise in standings a reasonable amount. The team is only three points back from the Los Angeles Kings for third in the Pacific Division and twelfth overall league-wide. On the flip side, the Flames are only four points out of a draft lottery position but would have to be surpassed in the standings by six teams.
With teams already emerging as wholesale sellers ahead of the deadline, it is less and less likely the Flames will fall in the standings and retain their first-round pick this season. With six games left until the 4 Nations tournament, will the Flames find themselves in a playoff spot heading into the break? Or will they stay in a position all too familiar with this franchise and be just outside?
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