Last week we looked at the unluckiest players across the NHL when it comes to goals, now we’ll look at the luckiest players. Who is racking up goals more often than they probably should be? Who could see a drastic drop in goal production in the second half of the season?
Let’s look at some outliers this season floating on good shooting luck right now. I excluded some elite players like Leon Draisaitl who surpasses his expected goal total every year due to shooting talent.
All numbers are 5v5 score- and venue-adjusted courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Adam Gaudette, C – Ottawa Senators
ixG: 4 | Actual goals: 12
Coming into the season, Adam Gaudette’s career-high in goals was 12, set four years ago. He was also coming off a season in which he spent just two games in the NHL. In other words, he wasn’t on a single fantasy roster in October. Fast forward a few months and the veteran forward has 15 goals on the year and 12 at 5v5. This is despite his expected goal total of just four at 5v5. He’s also posted only 57 shots in 47 games and is shooting the lights out at 26.3%.
For reference, his career shooting percentage before this year was 9%. Gaudette has already seen his goal total plummet in recent weeks, and that should only continue. Stay away.
Kent Johnson, W – Columbus Blue Jackets
ixG: 4 | Actual goals: 11
Part of the surprise Columbus Blue Jackets, Kent Johnson is having the best season of his career right now. He’s sitting on 14 goals in 35 goals, 11 of which have come at 5v5. With that said, he’s getting some incredible luck right now. With an ixG goal total of just four at 5v5, he’s outproducing that by seven goals right now. He’s currently shooting 20% this year after shooting 9.7% last season.
I wouldn’t expect this goal-scoring pace to continue all year, considering Johnson is getting every bounce possible to go in his favour right now.
Aliaksei Protas, W – Washington Capitals
ixG: 8 | Actual goals: 14
Another member of a surprise team, Aliaksei Protas has come out of nowhere this season to post 20 goals in 48 games, including a whopping 14 at 5v5. For reference, his career-high goal total before this season was just six. He currently ranks tied for eighth in the NHL for goals at 5v5, but 91st for ixG at 5v5. In other words, he’s lucky to be sitting on 20 goals right now.
Protas shot just 5.3% last season, and 4.8% the season before. This year however he’s shooting a ridiculous 24.1%. That’s five times higher than last year when he had just six goals. Ride the wave while you can, but regression is coming for Protas at some point.
Matthew Knies, W – Toronto Maple Leafs
ixG: 9 | Actual goals: 15
Like the names above, Matthew Knies is having a career-best year in 2024–25, and a large part of that is due to shooting luck. Last season, Knies set a career-best in goals with 15 while shooting 13%. This season he’s already sitting at 18 goals, with 15 at 5v5.
He’s also shooting 22% which simply isn’t sustainable. He currently ranks seventh in the NHL for goals at 5v5, but 53rd for ixG. He’s probably the most likely of this whole group to keep up his production, but the odds of him continuing to produce like a top-10 goal scorer at 5v5 this season are slim.
