Luck is a massive part of sports, whether that be directly on the ice or in fantasy leagues. If anyone told you they won a fantasy title without a little luck, they’re lying.
Using expected goals and comparing them to actual goals, we can determine which players have had the best luck this season. Below are the players who have scored the most goals above expected and the players who have scored the most goals below expected.
All numbers are 5v5 SVA courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Sidney Crosby, C – Pittsburgh Penguins
ixG: 11 | Actual goals: 4
Sidney Crosby is having a great season, sitting at a point per game once again at the age of 37 while also scoring 12 times. At even strength, however, Crosby should have nearly triple the amount of goals. So far this season, he’s scored just four times at 5v5 despite posting an expected goal total of 11.
He’s currently shooting just 4.26% at even strength, well below his career average total at 5v5, which sits at over 12%. With 94 shots at even strength and 185 shot attempts, Crosby is getting plenty of volume right now, but he just can’t buy a bounce.
Andrei Svechnikov, W – Carolina Hurricanes
ixG: 10 | Actual goals: 3
Andrei Svechnikov is scoring at right around the same pace he did last season, sitting with 15 goals in 46 games. However, he should likely be sitting on a much higher goal-scoring pace right now. Despite registering 10 expected goals at 5v5, he’s scored just three times at 5v5.
He’s put up 85 shots and 46 iHDCF but is shooting a pitiful 3.53% at 5v5 at the moment. His 46 iHDCF actually rank tied for 19th in the NHL, but his three 5v5 goals rank tied for 326th. Simply put, Svechnikov is generating high-danger chances at an elite rate, but it’s not converting into goals right now.
Logan Stankoven, W – Dallas Stars
ixG: 9 | Actual goals: 4
Rookie Logan Stankoven has had a rather underwhelming campaign so far, and a large reason for that is his bad luck at 5v5. So far, through 42 games, he has produced nine expected goals but scored only four.
Stankoven is shooting a ton right now, sitting on 99 shots at 5v5—a total that ranks 14th in the entire NHL. However, he’s shooting just 4%, a total that is sure to start to even out eventually. Last season at 5v5, he shot over double that amount with a 5v5 shooting percentage of 9.52%.
Barrett Hayton, C – Utah Hockey Club
ixG: 10 | Actual goals: 5
Barrett Hayton currently ranks 16th in the entire NHL in terms of expected goals, ahead of players like Kyle Connor, Cole Caufield, and Nico Hischier. Despite this, he’s scored just five times at 5v5, a total that ranks tied for 206th in the NHL.
Needless to say, Hayton is playing some great offensive hockey at 5v5 right now but is dealing with some unfortunate luck. His 48 iHDCF actually ranks 15th in the NHL, once again proving that he’s getting to the right spots and getting good chances but just can’t finish. If he can find some touch around the net, look for his goal totals to take a big step forward sooner rather than later.
