A debate in Calgary Flames circles recently is about the split in responsibility between the two goaltenders. While Dustin Wolf is having a phenomenal rookie season and is starting to make noise in the Calder Trophy conversation, many members of the mainstream media are shouting from the rooftops about how good Dan Vladar has been at insulating Wolf.
The key argument is that a factor in Wolf’s great season is that Vladar is taking on more of the difficult starts against better teams, and in less ideal situations.
Is there a basis for that claim?
Overall Flames goaltending stats
It’s no secret that Wolf is putting up better numbers than Vladar this season across the board. For a goalie who has heard the same annoying song every time he enters a new league, about how he may have succeeded in the previous league but he doesn’t have what it takes to succeed in this one, Wolf has really proved the doubters wrong.
Over the last few weeks, he’s also gotten the lion’s share of starts, which may indicate a changing of the guard as the Flames enter the second half of the season. Perhaps they start to treat Wolf like the starter and Vladar as the backup.
It’s well deserved—looking at overall 5v5 goalie statistics, Wolf is among the best in the league.
Here are the raw values for each goalie so far this season.
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GSAA | GSAx | HDSV% | MDSV% | LDSV% | Rush att | Rebound att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf | 23 | 0.944 | 17.44 | 13.73 | 0.864 | 0.953 | 0.972 | 54 | 96 |
| Dan Vladar | 20 | 0.917 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 0.779 | 0.902 | 0.99 | 41 | 80 |
With only three more starts than Vladar, Wolf is miles ahead in almost every statistic. What really stands out is his goals saved metrics, both in terms of average and expected. Wolf is among the best in the NHL, while Vladar is just barely above water. Wolf has also faced more rush attempts and more rebound attempts than Vladar and is still putting up much better numbers.
To put things into perspective, here’s the exact same chart but instead of raw values, it shows each goalie’s rank among all goalies in the NHL.
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GSAA | GSAx | HDSV% | MDSV% | LDSV% | Rush att | Rebound att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | 35 | 36 | 28 | 33 | 68 | 25 | 18 | 32 | 35 |
| Dustin Wolf | 26 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 6 | 42 | 13 | 26 |
It’s even clearer that Wolf is among the best in the league when looking at his numbers from this perspective. Wolf is the second-best goalie in the NHL in terms of goals saved above average behind only Connor Hellebyuck, and fifth overall for goals saved above expected. That’s impressive.
There’s no question that Wolf is having a better season than Vladar.
Home and away splits
The home and away split has been discussed, and it’s mostly true. Wolf has gotten more home starts than Vladar this season and the margin is quite high, but they’ve both had a similar number of road starts.
| Goalie | Total Starts | Home Starts | Away Starts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | 20 | 9 | 11 |
| Dustin Wolf | 23 | 14 | 9 |
With three more starts for Wolf than Vladar on the year, the fact that they are separated by just two road starts is interesting. Wolf has definitely gotten more favourable home/away splits but it’s not as crazily lopsided as some are making it seem.
Quality of competition
Another point being brought up about the split in workload between Vladar and Wolf is the starts they get against “good” teams and “bad” teams. It’s tough to really determine exactly what should qualify a team as good or bad, but I looked at all the starts for each goalie based on opponents currently ahead or behind them in the overall standings when sorted by points percentage.
This claim appears to be true, but it’s not as clear-cut as people are making it seem.
| Goalie | vs. Teams Ahead | vs. Teams Behind |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | 8 (40%) | 12 (60%) |
| Dustin Wolf | 5 (22%) | 18 (78%) |
So far, Wolf and Vladar are separated by three starts against teams ahead of them in the standings, but Wolf has gotten many more starts against teams behind the Flames in the standings.
However, With parity in the league at an all-time high, this might not be the most fair comparison. There are only a handful of teams in the NHL that are truly out of the playoff race at the midway point of the season, so it’s not that fair to just focus on current playoff teams. When you expand the search to any team within four points of a playoff spot, the gap closes a bit.
| Goalie | vs. teams within four pts of playoffs | vs. teams more than four pts of playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | 8 (85%) | 12 (15%) |
| Dustin Wolf | 5 (65%) | 18 (35%) |
When you look at an expanded list, which I think is much more fair considering how much the standings can change on a nightly basis, Wolf is much closer to Vladar.
While Vladar’s starts are still higher against better teams, the gap is not nearly as wide as it seemed.
Wolf deserves his flowers, unconditionally
At the end of the day, the split between the two Flames goalies isn’t that big. Wolf deserves full credit for his body of work this season, and we shouldn’t be trying to caveat his impressive rookie season.
Vladar has played a role in insulating him, yes, but not enough to take away from Wolf’s accomplishments.
