At this point, if you’re a Calgary Flames fan, you should’ve heard about the team targetting a good, young centre. It’s been a talking point surrounding the team since the offseason and now halfway through the season. This need has become even more apparent with Connor Zary potentially facing a long-term injury. A decent amount of names have been thrown around the Flames but none as good as Elias Pettersson.
In Vancouver, there seems to be some drama in the locker room surrounding star centres, Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller. This led to initial rumours of potential trades for both and is now morphed into what’s looking like at least one inevitable trade. What if it happened to be an Elias Pettersson trade? Now it is very wishful thinking, but what if we saw an inter-division trade between the Canucks that sees Pettersson ending up a Flame?
Pettersson’s career so far
Pettersson started out his hockey career in his home country of Sweden. He dominated his way through the ranks until his draft season.
Pre-NHL play
By the time his draft was coming up, Pettersson had made it to the pro level in Sweden. In HockeyAllsvenkan, Pettersson was suiting up for Timra IK and being one of their best players. In 43 games, he had lit the lamp 19 times alongside 22 assists for 41 points. He was second in team points behind only Jonathan Dahlen and inside the top ten for league scoring. This performance showed his dynamic, all-rounded hockey skill that saw him get drafted inside the 2017 NHL Draft’s top five at fifth overall by the Vancouver Canucks.
After being drafted, Pettersson was already one of the best NHL-affilliated prospects in the league. Unfortunately, he didn’t make the Canucks in his D+1 year and headed back to Sweden. The good news was now he was playing in the top league in the SHL with Vaxjo Lakers.
Going up one more tier was no struggle at all for Pettersson as he scored 24 goals and 32 assists for 56 points in 44 games. He not only comfortably leads his team in points but the whole SHL as well. If there was any doubt Pettersson was going to become a star, it should’ve been gone by now.
NHL performance as a rookie
The following year, Pettersson was ready to play his rookie season with the Vancouver Canucks. Things started out great as Pettersson scored a beautiful goal in his first career game against no other than the Flames. He would start his career with a five-game point streak with eight total points and things were looking prime.
Obviously, Pettersson didn’t keep his 131-point pace but still ended strong with a total of 28 goals and 38 assists for 66 points in 71 games. This was good enough to not only lead the team in points but to win the Calder Memorial Trophy as the league’s best rookie.
A shaky ascent as a top player
2019–20 was a big season for the Canucks as they made the playoffs for the first time since 2014–15. Pettersson was a big part of that. In the 68 games before the season was paused, he put a similar statline of 27 goals and 39 assists for 66 points which put him only behind ironically J.T. Miller on the team.
When the season resumed and playoffs commenced, Pettersson was one of, if not the best, players on the Canucks. Putting up seven goals and 11 assists in 17 playoff games before the Canucks were eliminated by the Vegas Golden Knights in seven games. The following shortened season was extra short for Pettersson due to injury. Out of the 56 games, Pettersson only appeared in 26 of them, producing 10 goals and 11 assists for 21 points.
The 2021–22 season was not a very strong season for the Canucks or Pettersson. The Canucks just barely missed the playoffs by five points and Pettersson had the worst statistical year of his career so far. In 80 games of the season, scoring 32 goals and adding 36 assists, Pettersson totalled 68 points on the year. While it wasn’t a career-low in points, it was his worst on a point-per-game basis.
A 100-point season
On the bright side, 2022–23 ended up being a massive year for Pettersson. His production skyrocketed and was finally putting all of his skills together. Almost putting up 40 more points, Pettersson got a career-high in goals, assists, and points. With 39 goals and 63 assists for 102 points in 80 games, he was leading the Canucks’ in points once again and also placing inside the top 10 in league scoring. However, even with Pettersson’s fantastic year, the Canucks would once again miss the playoffs for the third year in a row.
Looking back on last season, Pettersson wouldn’t match his totals from the prior season but definitely still produced at a high-end level. Scoring 34 goals and 55 assists for 89 points in what would be Pettersson’s first full 82-game season of his career is a huge result.
The contract extension
Pettersson would sign an eight-year extension on March 2, 2024. It would carry an average annual value of $11.6M. Even with his totals dropping a tiny bit, the Canucks would win the Pacific Division and claim a playoff spot against the Nashville Predators.
They would go on to beat the Predators in six games to get a matchup against the Edmonton Oilers. Unfortunately, the Oilers would go on to beat them in seven games. Pettersson had his fair share of struggles to produce in this playoff run only scoring six points in the 13 games.
Present day
Now going into this season, Pettersson’s name has been in the headlines. To start, he’s producing at the worst rate of his career so far with 10 goals and 18 assists for 28 points in 34 games which isn’t bad but not $11.6 million worthy. As a whole, the Canucks have been struggling this season being only 15th overall in the league and just inside a playoff spot as the second wild card in the Western Conference.
All the noise surrounding the Canucks has been a focus on Pettersson and J.T. Miller. There seems to be a heavy feud between the two that is impacting the team. There are rumours that Miller’s leave of absence was due to problems he was causing in the locker room. No one really knows the full story except that it seems pretty clear that the two don’t like each other. Who you think is a better player or better for the Canucks to keep is personal opinion.
Pettersson has been streaky this year having a six-game pointless streak that was broken with a two-goal performance in the final game before Christmas. Before that pointless streak, Pettersson was playing his best hockey of the year with 21 points in his last 15 games, being only pointless in three of them. It is very interesting to me that the pointless streak of games began the game that Miller came back from his leave. Meanwhile, Pettersson has been out since Christmas with an injury.
An analytical breakdown of Pettersson
Going to HockeyViz.com, let’s take a look at Pettersson’s 5v5 isolated impact chart throughout his career so far. For these charts, a more positive xGF value means a player is producing more offence for their team, while a more negative xGA value means they are preventing offence against them.
Pettersson has always been an analytical darling throughout his NHL career. His only negative offensive season came in just his rookie season with a score of -2.0% xGF. On the defensive score, he’s only had a rough defensive year just once in 2021–22 with a of +1.9% xGA.
When it comes to the rest of his career, he’s scoring above a +2.4% xGF every year, typically getting above a +4.0% in the offensive end. The other side of the ice doesn’t see him scoring consistently as high but still very well with his second career lowest being a -0.5% xGF, his highest being a dominant -5.3%.
Pettersson’s fit with the Flames
Pettersson is the most interesting option when it comes to the centres we have and will cover. Is he the best option in terms of skill level? Yes. Would he potentially push the Flames’ rebuild window too early? Also yes. Is he really good but also comes with concerns? Yes, again.
Talented player
Flashing high levels of skill with the puck and playing great at both ends of the ice, there’s no surprise that Elias Pettersson has shown to be one of the league’s best players. He’s produced around a point per game every season of his career, even on some pretty meh Canucks teams. The 100-point plateau is something he’s already hit in his career and he’s signed a big long-term contract. Pettersson is a player that many teams should and will want.
Starting with the positives, Pettersson would easily be the most skilled centre the Flames would have since Joe Nieuwendyk. He’s shown to be able to do it all in the offensive zone and be the driver of offence. A solid elite centre in the NHL would be something the Flames would jump for and it’s what Pettersson is.
He has a hard, fast shot that allows him to score 30+ goals a year. It’s complemented by his fast, smooth hands and high-end playmaking ability that has seen him as one of the more flashy players in the league. Skating has no issues and he brings his own unique physicality. Pettersson truly is the whole package. If he continues his elite level of play, he’s the type of centre that should change your franchise.
Possible concerns on accelerating the rebuild
Even with the positives, I can see concerns that would be in the fanbase. The first would be the advancement of a rebuild/retool too quickly but honestly, that’s not that big of a problem with Pettersson being at the prime age of 26. He’s not too old to not get many years of competing with him and he’s not too young to be inexperienced.
The Flames have expressed interest in a retool over a rebuild many times where you collect the right pieces and not fully tear it down and a guy like Pettersson gives you the opportunity to do that.
I’m a fan of tearing it down, going after guys like Gavin McKenna, Landon DuPont, Viggo Bjorck, Ivar Stenberg, etc. but if the Flames don’t fully commit to that to get Pettersson and build around him properly I wouldn’t be upset.
Concerns about Pettersson’s production
Another is that I can definitely see the concern of acquiring another Jonathan Huberdeau. Huberdeau was acquired as a 115-point player and signed to a massive long-term deal, but has been a huge disappointment. I understand the skepticism of getting another $10+ million dollar player that people have questioned his heart and abilities to perform under pressure. But to me, I think Pettersson has shown more than enough that he’ll produce when he’s the guy of the team.
Remember, he got his 100-point season not in a contract year or when the Canucks were very good. His last playoff run wasn’t very great but his first was electric for just his second season. The rumour that he’s a bit pouty and seems to cool off in production when things aren’t going his way is fair to raise concerns about. However, when the guy that he seems to have problems with and handles it in the opposite in a hot-headed manner is the team’s other 100-point star, it’s a bit tough to really call the whole situation.
Chances of a trade
In the end, the chances of the Canucks trading a star centre inside the division are slim. The price would be high and likely higher for the Flames. You’re looking at a good roster player, a good prospect, a first-round pick, and probably more.
Also, would Pettersson even want to come to Calgary? I think they have the assets to pull it off but it honestly feels way more like a dream than reality. If Pettersson never got back to form and stayed at this around 65-point pace that he currently is, then it wouldn’t be worth the trade or contract price. But away from Miller, he’s played at his normal elite level. There’s risk but Elias Pettersson is pretty good.
Is it worth it for Pettersson?
Elias Pettersson has tons of question marks surrounding him right now. He’s been developing and producing at an elite rate his whole career and has had talks of him being a top 10 centre in the NHL. Beef between him and J.T. Miller seems to be happening and one is likely on their way out of Vancouver. Both have produced at high levels but are currently under those levels this season. Miller is outproducing but Pettersson has performed when he is gone.
As a target for the Flames, Pettersson would easily be the best player on the market. He comes in as an automatic elite centre and the best player on the team. He’s not too old and could compete with the team in their best years if constructed properly.
Concerns of straying away from the rebuild/retool idea or landing another disappointing superstar are fair but I believe both sides have way more upside than downside. However, with the Canucks being in the division and Pettersson having a full no-move-clause, an Elias Pettersson trade that sees him ending up in a Flaming C is more of something out of the dream world rather than reality.
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