The Calgary Flames are on holiday break and don’t play another game until Saturday, December 28, when they visit San Jose. So far, this season has gone better than expected for the Flames, as they are in the second wild card spot over the Christmas break. That is pretty surprising for a team that was projected to be a bottom-five team in the league.
But can the same be said for the players on the team? Which players are playing better up to this point compared to how they were last year? Which ones are playing worse? With a break in the schedule, let’s take a look at the numbers
For each returning Flames player from last year, I have calculated what their goals, and points projections were at this point last year, and am comparing them to this year.
Point projections and pace changes
The risers
Matt Coronato has had an excellent season this year. From splitting his time between the NHL and AHL last year, he seems to have found his footing and solidified his spot in the top-six this year. At the holiday break last year, Coronato was only projected to produce 15 points, however, this year he has jumped up to a projection of 51.
Is Jonathan Huberdeau on his way to finding his old self again? Around this time last year, he was projected to have the lowest point total in his career at just 36 points. This would have been 19 points lower than the 55 points he put up as a Flame in his first year, which at the time, was already his career-low. This season, however, he looks to be finding his game again as he is on pace to get to 60 points. You would want more from your $11.5M player, however, it is good to see a jump in production, and hopefully, this is a step in the right direction.
The fallers
Rasmus Andersson had a terrific start to the season, however has seemed to cool off as he is now on pace to produce just 36 points. Walker Duher is also seeing a downward trend. Blake Coleman is on pace to produce 41 points whereas last year during the holidays he was playing at a 58-point pace. When looking at Coleman’s career, 41 points would be the second highest of his career. This is less of a fall-off and more of a product compared to a career year. Coleman also provides solid defensive abilities on the ice, so a dip in production isn’t the end of the world if he can continue to contribute on the other end of the ice.
The biggest faller when we compare 2023 to 2024 is Yegor Sharangovich. Last year at Christmas, Sharangovich was projected to score 51 points. By the end of the year, he ended up beating this projection by putting up 59 points. This year, after being signed to an extension, he just hasn’t looked the same, and the numbers back that up if he keeps producing the way he has been, he will only produce 27 points. That is far too low.
Goal projections and pace changes
The risers
Who remembers when fans would be begging and pleading for Hubderdeau to stop passing up wide-open shots? Well, it looks like he may finally be listening as he is projected to have his first 30+ goal season as a Flame. If he keeps this up and scores 31 goals, that will be a career-high for him. This is excellent to see.
Matt Coronato once again is a riser, and it makes complete sense as his biggest strength is his shot. He probably has the best shot on the team, and this season he is starting to truly figure out how to use it to his advantage. He is projected to have 25 goals by season’s end which is much higher than the seven he was projected to achieve last year, but don’t be surprised if he hits 30.
Nazem Kadri has also rebounded pretty well in the goal-scoring department compared to where he was a year ago. There have been reports of teams being interested in acquiring Kadri, and with him scoring at a 30+ goal pace, it’s easy to see why.
The fallers
Outside of last year, Coleman has consistently put up around 15–20 goals a season. This year, he is playing up to that pace again. Yegor Sharangovich is also projected to see a dip in his goal-scoring compared to his pace at this point last year. This is reflected in his shooting percentage as well as last year he shot a great 17.3%. This year, it’s only at 9.5%.
Mackenzie Weegar scored 20 goals last year, however, this is not the norm for him. Throughout his career, he has scored fewer than 10 goals in practically every season. Therefore, seeing him scoring at a 10-goal pace this year is not necessarily a cause for concern.
Once Pospisil was called up to the NHL last year, he was playing pretty well and by the holidays, he was scoring goals at a 15-goal pace. This year has been a different story, where as of now, he is only projected to score just five goals. He has struggled to stay out of the penalty box this year, but he still has time to improve on that before the season ends.
Over half a season left
Time will tell if these projections hold true, but as of now, it is clear that Matthew Coronato and Jonathan Hubderdeau are two big winners right now compared to last year. Both their points and goals are projected to improve by a significant margin. On the other side of things, Sharangovich is likely hoping for a stronger second half of the season than how his first half has gone. He has shown he can be a lethal scorer, so let’s see if that comes to fruition once again.
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