We are officially at the Christmas break, and the Calgary Flames are still in the hunt for a playoff spot when we all thought they would be battling for last place in the league-wide standings. With where they sit in the standings just under halfway through the season, there has been plenty of speculation that they will be looking to add a young top-six centre to the roster.
Plenty of names have been mentioned, but one that is louder than others is Buffalo Sabres centre, Dylan Cozens. The former seventh overall pick in 2019 is having a subpar year, and there is plenty of speculation out of Buffalo that he may be on his way out. I am sure the Flames would be showing lots of interest if Cozens were available for trade. In fact, The Win Column’s very own Drew Ostmoen (@ajayissock) covered how and why the Flames might have their eyes on Cozens in great detail earlier this month.
However, I, for one, think they should be staying as far away as possible.
Cozens may not be the player he was hyped up to be
Cozens had lots of high expectations when he came into the league, and it was for good reason. For three years playing for the Lethbridge Hurricanes in the WHL, he tore up the league. Cozens amassed 223 points in 179 games; he was a game-breaker in every sense of the word, and when he finally made the Sabres, the expectation was that he would do the same in the NHL.
Well, that hasn’t exactly gone to plan. Now playing in his fifth season, he has only had one big season for the Sabres, which came in the 2022–23 season, where he put up 31 goals and 68 points in 81 games. Many thought that was just the beginning of Cozens becoming a superstar, and the Sabres paid him as such. The Sabres inked him to a seven-year contract with an AAV of $7.1 million. It was hefty after only one great year, but the Sabres were sure that would be the norm going forward.
Since signing that deal, Cozens just has not been the same, and the production has failed to live up to expectations. He has been very disappointing, to say the least. He scored just 47 points a year ago; this year, he is on pace for 37 points. A pretty far cry from his breakout campaign a couple seasons ago.
He has just not looked like the player he was when he broke out. The explosiveness isn’t there, the high-paced offensive game isn’t there, and the creativity that made him a threat every night isn’t there right now, and who is to say that it will ever come back? There is a decent chance that his 2022–23 season was just a flash in the pan, and he may just be around a 40- to 50-point player. It may be too early to tell, but it is certainly trending in that direction. Not great for a player who makes as much as he does.
Cozens would be a costly acquisition
Right now, I would be looking at Cozens and his deal as a negative value. He is making top-line money, and he is making that money for a long time. If you are a team acquiring him, you have to hope that he turns back into the player he was a couple of years ago, and you have to hope it keeps up for the rest of his contract.
Cozens isn’t making money where the cap hit doesn’t hurt your team if it doesn’t work out. At $7.1 million, that is a contract that will definitely hurt you if he is playing the way he is now. Think about it as the Yegor Sharangovich deal that hasn’t even kicked in yet but with more money and more term.
The other aspect of this is the cost of acquiring Cozens from the Sabres. Yes, he has had a couple of down years, but the Sabres surely will not just be giving him away for pennies on the dollar. He is a young player, and despite what I have said about him here, there is still solid upside for him if everything goes right in his development. These are some of the pros we looked at when considering why the Flames should target Cozens in a trade.
However, the Flames should not be shelling out assets for a player like Cozens right now, given their state. They are not in a position to be giving away high picks and their top-end prospects. They need all of their picks, and unless the Sabres are going to take back a big contract like Sharangovich or even Nazem Kadri, the Flames just cannot afford to bring in another big-ticket and hope it works out.
Maybe they do bring in Cozens, and he turns back the clock and flourishes into a solid player. They would need him to be even better than a 60-point centre, though, considering how much money he makes. Right now, it is totally unrealistic for him to do that; it is way too big of a risk to take on. If he doesn’t work out, then you’re stuck with another anchor of a contract for half a decade that might just handcuff you down the line when you are (hopefully) competitive again.
Flames need to find a centre through the draft
The best way for the Flames to find a centre will always be through the draft. There is still plenty of season to go, and I really do not think they will be a playoff team come April. This draft is loaded with centres near the top, so that should be the team’s focus.
When it comes to finding a centre through trade, I do not think it is the worst idea, but there are other players I would target before considering Cozens. Marco Rossi and Trevor Zegras cost less on the cap than Cozens, and their current contracts are much shorter. That will be easier to navigate, and I would say the upside with those guys is higher than Cozens at this point in time.
To put it bluntly, the Flames are not in a position to be buying right now. The rebuild has just begun, and this is a move that can set you back if it does not work out in your favour. Stay the course; work through the draft. That is where the Flames will be the most successful.
