Looking at the main target of the Calgary Flames, they seem to have been hunting down a young top-six centre—a priority that general manager Craig Conroy has made. However, not many teams are lining up to trade a young centre with potential. That’s unless there’s no current or future use or the player is in need of a change of scenery.
Now when it comes to Dylan Cozens of the Buffalo Sabres, a change of scenery seems to be the swap he needs. His production has been a decline since his career year in 2022–23. This is continuing into this year. Buffalo is in need of changing things up and Cozens could very much be a part of that.
Cozens’ career so far
Going back to when he was 12 years old, we can see Cozens’ stats begin. He worked his way up through AAA and prep before joining the Lethbridge Hurricanes in the WHL.
Juniors
After lighting up the Prep league, Cozens received the honour of being the first Yukon-born player to be drafted in the first round of the WHL draft, going 19th overall to the Lethbridge Hurricanes. Cozens had plenty of promise. His season at Yale Acamedy saw him put up almost two points per game. He then played three games with the Hurricanes and scored his first WHL goal. The playoffs saw him spend 12 more games with the Hurricanes. With three goals and eight points, Cozens’ promises were showing again.
Heading into 2017–18, Cozens was set to play his rookie season inside the WHL. Having a big role with the Hurricanes, Cozens had a great year, scoring 22 goals and 31 assists leading to 53 points in 57 games. He was fourth on his team in scoring. This led to him winning the Jim Piggott Trophy for Rookie of the Year. The playoffs came and Cozens scored 13 points in 16 games. The following season was Cozens’ draft year and many eyes were on him with tons of pressure. But he prevailed.
Draft year
Cozens improved to 34 goals and 50 assists in 84 games. This was also an improvement as he became first in team scoring and tied for 10th in the league. Seven games in the playoffs is all Cozens and the Hurricanes saw and Cozens put up four goals and assists for eight points. After this, the draft was up next. The Buffalo Sabres took the stage at seventh overall and selected Cozens, welcoming him into their organization.
Best case scenario didn’t happen and Cozens spent the next year with the Hurricanes again. He saw improvement again to 38 goals and 47 assists for 85 points in 51 games—comfortably first in team scoring by 17 points, seventh in the league for scoring, and third in points per game. With the global pandemic, there were no playoffs for Cozens and the Hurricanes. However, this season saw Cozens play for his home country of Canada for the first time. Cozens did well with nine points in seven games as Canada claimed gold over Russia in a 4–3 victory.
With the pandemic, the NHL season was taking a while to find the right time to start. But, the World Juniors did take place still. Cozens would play for Canada again and be one of three captains. Canada had a dominant team and Cozens led it. He had 16 points in seven games, which was double that of second place. Canada went on to lose a heartbreaking gold medal game 2–0 to the USA.
Transition into professional hockey
The following season in 2021, after all the pandemic problems, Cozens was ready to play his first NHL year. The first game of the year for the Sabres saw Cozens make his debut against the Washington Capitals on January 14th, 2021 and pick up his first point as an assist. Cozens would score his first NHL goal eight days later, also against the Capitals. He’d pick up one more point before he was injured at the end of January and held out for almost a month. Cozens would return and play the rest of the season with the Sabres, scoring 10 more points bringing his rookie total to 13.
After a pretty lacklustre and odd rookie year, Cozens was looking to take another step forward for the Sabres and that he did. He faced little problems, only missing three games of all 82. In those 79 games, he produced 13 goals and 38 points which was a steady improvement from the prior season. With Buffalo missing the playoffs again, Cozens went to play for Canada at the IIHF World Championships. There he put up seven goals and 13 points in 10 games and lost in the gold medal game to Finland in overtime.
The next season saw Cozens pick up a trend of improving year by year. First a steady improvement in his sophomore season and now a drastic one. Missing only one game, Cozens put up 31 goals and 68 points in 81 games for the Sabres in what was a contract year for him. It placed him fifth on the team in scoring and earned him a $7.1M annual average for the next seven seasons.
But just as fast as the trend of improvement started, a new negative trend began. Last year, in the 2023–24 season, hopes were high for Cozens to continue to get better but that didn’t happen. His production dropped in his 79 games, down to just 18 goals and 47 points. Now to be fair, the entire Sabres team had a down year in terms of production, but still not a good sign. With the struggling year, he went back to play at the World Championships. This time he scored nine goals and 11 points in 10 games for Canada as they lost to Switzerland in the semi-finals and then Sweden in the bronze medal game.
Now this brings us to this season. Once again, the negative trend is still in place. Cozens has just six goals and 13 points in 31 games which is pace for 16 goals and 35 points across a whole season. That’s worse than his sophomore season. And this year he doesn’t really have the excuse of the team not producing as he sits ninth in team scoring.
Rumours surrounding Cozens’ future in Buffalo have been around for a little bit. With him straight up leaving the game after a Maple Leafs goal in their last game, Cozens’ Sabre tenure may be coming to a close. A rumour started by the game’s top insider, Elliotte Friedman, has come along of a package of Bowen Byram plus Cozens for Elias Pettersson. While it would be crazy, it seems highly unlikely.
An analytical breakdown of Cozens
Going to HockeyViz.com, let’s take a look at Cozens’ 5v5 isolated impact chart throughout his career so far. For these charts, a more positive xGF value means a player is producing more offence for their team, while a more negative xGA value means they are preventing offence against them.
Beginning at the beginning in 2020–21, it’s clear that Cozens did not have a great start to his career. His offence was in the negative xGF, generating barely any offence in any area of the ice. Then on the defensive side of things, it was positive xGA, which is not good.
The following season, improvement was made. A slight change in the offensive zone with a +0.3% to the xGF but plenty more chances were generated on the right side of the ice. The defensive end saw even more gain with a -1.3% change to the xGA.
2022–23 set the standard for the rest of Cozens’ career. Good offence with bad defence. His offence took a massive jump to +4.6% xGF but a massive drop on the defensive side of things with a +7.5% xGA. Since then his defence has gotten worse and worse and has now bottomed at a very rough -10.3% xGA. For offence, it peaked in 2023–24 at +5.5% but has dropped down to +1.9% this season.
Cozens’ fit with the Flames
While I don’t believe Cozens would be the best option for the Flames, he would for sure be a solid one. Cozens still has skill and potential in his game that has yet to be tapped into and the Flames could very well be the ones to do it. Entering the league, Cozens was set to be a two-way beast who could produce.
As I’ve covered, Cozens hasn’t exactly become that, struggling heavily in the defensive end. He’s become more of a player with no set style. He skates fast, puts in the effort to work hard, and generates his chances on the rush. Opportunity to be a power forward, goal-scorer, and chance creator are all there for Cozens, it’ll just matter how he develops from now on.
You can find Cozens in all areas of the offensive zone at his best. In front of the net, in the corners, blazing down the right side, middle, etc. He’s got enough size to be a presence at the net front to jam in pucks or pick up rebounds. Snapping a nice shot past the goalie is also in his toolbox. Sending a smooth tape-to-tape pass may also be something you see Cozens do. He’s got a nice capable set of hands too. It really just comes down to piecing it together, some luck, and confidence.
With Cozens very likely needing a change of scenery, Calgary could be the place. The Flames currently have many opportunities for him to blossom into the strong player he was drafted to be. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a top line centre but he definitely has the tools to be one. I think at this point in his career, you’re more looking at a potential 2C and maybe a top-line winger.
While it’s not exactly what they’d be looking for it’s still a strong piece to have. He’s 23, turning 24 in February, already comfortably under a contract so you wouldn’t have to worry about him not fitting the window or leaving when ready to compete. His contract is a bit sketchy at $7.1M for the next six years but if he reaches his potential it will be worth it.
The price I would expect to be a little hefty even with his struggles. He’s a 23-year-old top-10 pick who was very productive just two seasons ago. It wouldn’t be as high as the peak obviously but still a good price. Think maybe a first-round pick plus a roster player or a second-rounder, roster player, and a prospect. The price is definitely not worth his current form but if he can go back to at least his 2022–23 self, it feels worth it.
Is it worth it for Cozens?
Cozens for me is a trade target that I’m about 60/40 on. I understand the skillset and promise that he brings to the table and is a very intriguing young piece for any team’s future. On the other hand, his production has been declining ever since signing his big $7.1M AAV seven-year deal. He’s a player that I would not be surprised to see a team take a risk on him and have it be worth it, but I’d also not be too surprised if the opposite happened.
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