American Thanksgiving has historically been a major checkpoint in the NHL season. More often than not, if a team is in a playoff spot on the holiday, they’re also in a playoff spot by the end of the season. With the Calgary Flames shocking everyone with their hot start, they currently sit firmly in the playoffs coming into Thanksgiving this year.
Across the NHL this has always been a good sign of future success, but how about throughout the years for just the Flames? Has their standing spot on Thanksgiving typically aligned with their spot at the end of the season? Let’s take a look.
Thanksgiving since the lockout
First of all, let’s take a trip down memory lane and take a look at where the Flames have ranked league wide each Thanksgiving since the 2004 lockout and then where they ranked at the end of the season. Rankings in bold represent the Flames being in a playoff spot.
The 2020–21 and 2012–13 season’s had altered start dates, so the Thanksgiving benchmark isn’t applicable those years.
| Season | NHL rank at Thanksgiving | NHL rank at season’s end | Playoffs? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 9th | ? | ? |
| 2023-24 | 26th | 24th | No |
| 2022-23 | 15th | 16th | No |
| 2021-22 | 4th | 6th | Yes |
| 2019-20 | 24th | 19th | No |
| 2018-19 | 10th | 2nd | Yes |
| 2017-18 | 10th | 20th | No |
| 2016-17 | 28th | 15th | Yes |
| 2015-16 | 28th | 26th | No |
| 2014-15 | 11th | 16th | Yes |
| 2013-14 | 26th | 27th | No |
| 2011-12 | 27th | 17th | No |
| 2010-11 | 26th | 17th | No |
| 2009-10 | 6th | 16th | No |
| 2008-09 | 13th | 13th | Yes |
| 2007-08 | 22nd | 14th | Yes |
| 2006-07 | 17th | 13th | Yes |
| 2005-06 | 11th | 7th | Yes |
Digging into the numbers
Overall since the lockout the Flames have taken part in 17 full length seasons. Of those 17 seasons, they’ve been in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving eight times, or around 47% of the time. Those seasons are 2005–06, 2008–09, 2009–10, 2014–15, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2021–22 and 2022–23. They’ve also made the playoffs eight times over that same time span, but that number doesn’t perfectly align with the above seasons.
There were a couple reverse scenarios where the team wasn’t in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving but ended up making the playoffs. They’ve managed this three times, in 2006–07, 2007–08, and 2016–17.
Their current rank of ninth overall in the NHL (by points percentage) is the third highest place they’ve been at Thanksigiving since the lockout, trailing only the 2009–10 and 2021–22 seasons.
This is where it gets a little more interesting. Of the eight season’s where they were in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving, they ended up remaining in a playoff spot at seasons end five out of eight times, or 62.5% of the time. A good indicator of future success, but far from a guarantee. The three season’s in which they were in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving but didn’t end up making the playoffs are 2009–10, 2017–18, and 2022–23.
So what went wrong those three seasons and what should we look out for and hopefully avoid with this years team to ensure hey reach the playoffs? Let’s break it down.
The errors of the 2022–23 team
Thanksgiving: 15th | Years end: 16th
You may be shocked to hear this, but the 2022–23 Flames were actually in a playoff spot at American Thanksgiving. Just barely at 15th overall, but they were. By Thanksgiving the Flames were hanging onto their playoff spot by a string. After a quick 5–1–0 start, they would drop seven in a row to drop below .500 in the middle of November. They did however scrape together a nice 4–1–1 record after the losing streak to climb back into the playoff picture right as Thanksgiving came around.
The rest of the year the Flames would do exactly what they did before Thanksgiving by alternating winning and losing streaks all season. This kept them right in the thick of the playoff race all season before falling just short at 16th overall, missing the playoffs by just two points. In the end their ranking at Thanksgiving was quite accurate to their end of season ranking, they just came up a tad short of actually remaining in a playoff spot and remained mediocre all season long.
How the 2017–18 team failed to make playoffs
Thanksgiving: 10th | Years end: 20th
The 2017–18 season was a wild one for the Flames. Coming into Thanksgiving things were looking good. In fact the vibes couldn’t have been better. At a time in which the team was expected to take another step towards contention, the team was sitting top 10 in the NHL at Thanksgiving with an impressive 12–8–1 record. The team had won seven of their last 10 games and everything was looking good. That is until it wasn’t. Reality started to set in immediately after Thanksgiving.
The Flames would close out November by going a very pedestrian 4–4–1 after Thanksgiving, dropping them to seventh in the conference. Things would get back on track a bit in December thanks to a seven game winning streak, but the wheels completely fell off in March thanks to an epic late season collapse. Sitting just two points out of the playoffs with 11 games to go, the Flames would lose seven straight games, and nine of 11 to close out the season. They’d completely fall out of the race and end the season 20th overall after sitting 10th at Thanksgiving.
A horrible 2009–10 season showing
Thanksgiving: 6th | Years end: 16th
The 2009–10 season was just about as bad as a season can go. Coming into Thanksgiving the team looked like a legitimate contender. Sitting with a 14–6–3 record which was good for fourth in the conference and sixth in the NHL, the Flames looked like a lock to make the playoffs. They even won their first three games after Thanksgiving to move to 17–6–3. Surely their hot start to the season meant the playoffs were a lock right? Wrong.
The cracks would start to show soon after Thanksgiving. To close out the season after the holiday the Flames would post a very average 9–6–2 record, leaving them sixth in the Conference with only a four point cushion over ninth place. Things would just continue to get worse in January. They’d post a dreadful 4–8–3 record in January including a nine game losing streak that essentially ruined any positives from their hot start. Soon after the organization would panic and send Dion Phaneuf packing to Toronto in a bid to shake things up.
The shock move wouldn’t have the impact the team was hoping and the Flames would continue to flounder the rest of the way, playing average hockey en route to the dreaded 16th overall place finish, five points out of the playoffs.
The odds are in their favour, but not by much
Make no mistake, the Flames hot start to the year that leaves them sitting pretty on American Thanksgiving is a great sign for their future success. If history is any indication, the team is more likely than not to make the playoffs at years end. With that said, the playoffs are far from a lock and if the above three seasons are any indication, there’s plenty of season left and all it takes is a rough couple weeks to completely change the outlook for the team.
Photo by Brett Holmes/Icon Sportswire
