The Calgary Flames have been going through a massive youth movement this season. Connor Zary has had a great season so far, and while the point totals haven’t been there, the looks he keeps getting show that they will come in time. Dustin Wolf has been outstanding in a tandem role and looks more like a bona fide starter with each passing game. Kevin Bahl looks like a savvy pickup as a smart two-way defender playing heavy minutes this season. This is to say nothing of the emergence of Justin Kirkland, Daniil Miromanov, and Brayden Pachal, who have all taken strides this year.
Lost in the conversation this year has been Martin Pospisil, who has really not been the player he was last season. Just one year ago, it felt like every game was an opportunity for Pospisil to be a standout player. Whether it was creating great chances in front, throwing big hits, or generally being a pest in front of the net, you couldn’t help but notice him on the ice.
However, this season Pospisil has been weirdly missing. He is not nearly as noticeable as he once was. And when you do notice him, it’s mostly been for the wrong reasons. His late penalty in the Battle of Alberta cost the team the game and came on the heels of a couple of penalties against the Pittsburgh Penguins, for which he was benched for the latter part of the game.
Let’s dive into what’s going on with Pospisil.
Has Pospisil actually been less effective this season?
The eye test suggests that Pospisil hasn’t been nearly as effective as he was last year, but what do the numbers say?
There was always expected to be a bit of regression for Pospisil heading into his sophomore season in the NHL. However, dropping down to a shooting percentage of 3.84% is far from optimal. That’s last among skaters who have scored this season, with just Ryan Lomberg sitting with a 0% shooting percentage having not scored yet.
The problem isn’t that Pospisil isn’t shooting enough—he’s taking about the same number of shots per 60 minutes of ice time this season but he’s not getting nearly enough good looks. His expected goals per 60 minutes have dropped from 0.95 to 0.63 which is significant.
Take a look at this table breaking down his data from Natural Stat Trick. All data is presented in rates—which means it is how many he produces per sixty minutes of ice time and in all situations. The numbers in brackets are his rank on the team among forwards who have played at least 100 minutes this season, of which there were 12 this season and 18 last.
| Season | Individual expected goals | Shot attempts | Scoring chances | High-danger chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024–25 | 0.63 (9th) | 15.33 (5th) | 6.72 (8th) | 2.42 (9th) |
| 2023–24 | 0.95 (6th) | 15.12 (6th) | 9.28 (3rd) | 4.64 (3rd) |
Scoring chances and high-danger chances are the shots that have the highest chances of becoming goals, and these are typically chances right in front of the net. And this is where Pospisil has traditionally thrived. However, he’s not been as effective in getting chances in those areas this season. Take a look at this breakdown of where he is shooting from as put together by HockeViz.com.
Pospisil is hardly doing anything, and in his limited body of work, the vast majority of his shooting is coming from the blueline right in the middle as opposed to from dangerous areas like in front of the net. This poses a major problem in terms of his effectiveness. Pospisil is the type of player who thrives in net-front roles, and not getting shots from there isn’t going to work.
Is it time to move Pospisil back to the wing?
One of the challenges that Pospisil has been dealing with this season has been transitioning to playing centre this season. He has played this role in junior, at the AHL level, but now has transitioned to the role at the NHL level. But to play this position at this level takes a ton of work and adaptation. On top of that, he has bounced around the lineup and has spent most of the season with Jonathan Huberdeau, who has struggled again this season aside from the first couple of games.
On top of that, it looked like Pospisil was really playing well alongside Anthony Mantha, but unfortunately, Mantha is out for the rest of the season after suffering an injury. Adding Andrei Kuzmenko to that line is a great addition, but is an adjustment in playing style from Mantha.
It may be time to move Pospisil back to the wing in order to get more out of him. This would alleviate him of the heavier defensive role that centres play, and allow him to play that hard-nosed role that he has thrived in since coming up to the NHL. It doesn’t seem like he is the right fit alongside Huberdeau either, and moving him to the wing and off of that line would be helpful for everyone.
Options for Calgary
The Flames have a lot of wingers this season but are struggling for centres. They could try Connor Zary at centre again, which Coach Ryan Huska has been hesitant to do to this point, but may end up being the right call. Yegor Sharangovich is the other option, but he too has been far more effective on the wing than down the middle. Swapping Zary and Pospisil may be the easiest thing to do to keep everything else the same.
At the end of the day, the Flames need to find a way to get more out of Pospisil this season. He is simply not the player that he was last year, and it likely is a result of him playing centre and being stapled to Huberdeau. It’s time to move him back to the wing and flip someone else into the centre role.
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