Heading into the season, the Calgary Flames did not have high expectations set for them—they were just an older team with no real superstar and a lot of solid players. The only real draw to them was their young guys such as Connor Zary and Matt Coronato. But there was one name the whole fanbase was anticipating that 2024–25 would be his first full season: Dustin Wolf.
Wolf has dominated every single level he has played at and has consistently been one of the best goalie prospects in the world for the past several years. Despite his shaky performance in his 17 NHL games last year, many were still excited to see what he could do in the NHL full-time. With Jacob Markstrom traded, it became time for Dustin Wolf to shine and he has shone brighter than expected to start the season.
Even so much so that Wolf should be an early favourite for the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s best rookie of the year.
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Wolf’s dominance to start the year
If you pay any sort of attention to the Flames, you’ll know just how good Dustin Wolf has been to start. Currently splitting starts perfectly with Dan Vladar, Wolf has started nine of the Flames’ 18 games this year. In those nine starts, Wolf has accumulated six wins, a goals against average (GAA) of 2.53, a save percentage (SV%) of .921, and his first-ever NHL shutout. He’s had a save percentage above .900 in six of those games, with the lowest being .917.
In the three games that saw him put up a save percentage lower than .900, he’s only had one truly bad game with a .821 against the Utah Hockey Club with five goals allowed on 28 shots. Those other two games came with him making over 30 saves in each and treading on 40 shots against.
These three games were the only three losses Wolf has for the Flames so fas this year. So if Wolf is bad or just meh, the Flames have not been able to win. Wolf has made an abundance of highlight reel saves in just his nine games and it’s scary that it seems like he is heating up.
Wolf’s posting an incredible goals saved above expected
Depending on which model you look at, Wolf’s goal saved above expected (GSAx) sticks out no matter what. Starting with Evolving-Hockey, Wolf has saved 6.74 goals above expected to start the year. Then another model from MoneyPuck puts his GSAx at 6.0. Finally, NaturalStatTrick has it at its lowest at 5.93 GSAx. While this would be considered pretty good for a full season, for just the start this is amazing.
Looking at some more advanced statistics via NaturalStatTrick.com, we’ll really be able to see the greatness Dustin Wolf is giving the Flames. Despite playing about only three minutes more than Vladar, Wolf has faced 16 more high-danger shots against while allowing three fewer goals on those shots.
Rush attempts and rebound attempts that Wolf has faced both sit at 14 more than Vladar. Expected goals against is 6.03 higher for Wolf. The Flames are playing worse and allowing more in front of Wolf and he’s performing better. His high-danger saved percentage sits at .857 which is one of the best in the league.
It truly has been a goalie show in Calgary this year as the Flames are struggling to score as of late but Vladar and especially Wolf are keeping them in and winning them games. Without them, the Flames would very well be way worse off.
Comparing Wolf to other rookies
Heading into the season, Dustin Wolf was definitely considered one of the top rookies. He’s not performing at a surprise out-of-the-nowhere level, but he’s still definitely outperforming the expectations so far. When it comes to top rookie skaters this season, we have the likes of Matvei Michkov, Logan Stankoven, Macklin Celebrini, Lane Hutson, Maxim Tysplakov, Cutter Gauthier, Will Smith, Jack Thompson, and more. Among goalies, there’s obviously Wolf but also Justus Annunen and Joel Blomqvist.
If Wolf wants to win the Calder, he’ll have to be better than the rest of the guys listed or at least on the same level as some. So far, he is doing that but he’ll have to keep it up. The current front runners would be Michkov and Stankoven with Hutson and Tysplakov sitting behind. Both Michkov and Stankoven are sitting at just under a point per game for their teams. They are among their team’s top producers.
Michkov has six goals and 13 points in 15 games for the Flyers and only sits behind Travis Konecny in team scoring. Similarly, Stankoven has four goals and 14 points in 15 games with the Stars and only sees Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene ahead.
Going forward, Michkov is hands down the Flyers’ best offensive weapon and he and John Tortorella just need to start seeing eye to eye. The Stars are a stacked team with their best having slow starts so Stankoven isn’t one of their top guys but that’s more telling about the Stars than him.
I’d like to give a shout to Lane Hutson as his 10 points in 17 games are matching some of the best defencemen in the NHL career starts. He’s also flashing fantastic skating ability and offensive flair. I wouldn’t think it’s too crazy if you considered him to be in the same tier as the other two.
For Wolf, he is one of the only Flames performing at a high level. He’s holding them in games and covering up for their mistakes. I’ve already gone over his stats and they scream elite just like Michkov and Stankoven.
Obviously, with the more games any of these rookies play, they could creep up on any of these guys. But if these guys continue their pace, it will be a tight Calder race. If Michkov improves to a point-per-game pace or above, it will be hard to vote against the dynamic winger. The same thing goes for Stankoven if he stays the course. If Wolf’s stats hold throughout the entire year, it will also be hard to vote against him. A goalie putting up a 0.915–0.920+ SV% on a bad team as a rookie is just not something you see most rookie goalies do.
I think what will truly be the difference in Calder voting will be team outcomes. Michkov is on a not-great Flyers team and is their most offensive and dynamic forward which could easily earn him votes if he elevates his play and team. Stankoven is on a great Stars team and is currently one of the driving forces of offence that may continue if Robertson and Hintz don’t pick it up. Wolf is on a bad Flames team and is currently keeping them afloat. If he somehow brings them to the playoffs, I think that alone may win him the Calder over these two.
Wolf compared to other goalies league-wide
Now where what I think is a good piece for why Wolf is a current front-runner for the Calder is not just because how he compares to other rookies but also to every other goalie in the league. Statistically, Wolf has been one of the best goalies in the league to start the year. Using NaturalStatTrick once again, let’s take a look at where he stands in multiple categories for goalies who have played five or more games.
Starting with the basics in SV%, Wolf’s .921 SV% places him eighth in the entire league. This sees him above the likes of Juuse Saros, Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Sorokin, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. His GAA of 2.53 doesn’t see him fall much farther putting him at 12th best.
Moving away from the basics and onto more stats that most consider more advanced, let’s first look at Wolf’s placement in terms of GSAx. Seeing himself at his so far best rank, Wolf sits eighth with his 5.93—placing below the best of the best but still being above guys like Vasilevskiy again.
Goals saved above average (GSAA) for Wolf is currently at 6.10 being the sixth best league-wide. Finally, his HDSV% is at .857 this moment which doesn’t seem too high but is ninth in the league.
With the overall statistics out of the way, I just want to quickly point out some incredible statistics Wolf has at 5v5. In terms of SV%, Wolf sits at an inclined .955 at 5v5. This is the league’s second-best as he is tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Anthony Stolarz and only behind the Detroit Red Wings’ Cam Talbot. Then over to GSAx, it also improves to 8.75 at 5v5—good enough for fourth in the league behind only Stolarz, Talbot, and Lukas Dostal.
I think it is truly important to look at just how good Wolf is doing compared to not only other rookies but other goalies. He places inside the top 10 for every major goalie statistic except for one where he places 12th. Improvement is seen when you limit it to what hockey is mostly played at which is 5v5 with him coming in the top five in both statistics and even top three in SV%.
Wolf could be coming for the Calder Trophy
Dustin Wolf has been phenomenal to start the season for the Calgary Flames. The trend of him being elite at every level is continuing so far into this year. I’d argue that he is one of the best rookies with only two others at the same level.
He is also currently one of the best goalies in the league statistically to start the season. He is carrying the Flames on his back when he is put in the net. If this stands and let’s say the Flames make the playoffs or get close, I think it’d be hard to hand anyone else the Calder unless they match his level.
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