Hockey is back! The Calgary Flames are 4–0–0 to start the year and are already showing much better than expected, both on paper and on the ice. With the departure of big names such as Jacob Markstrom, Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, and Chris Tanev, many expected this season to be a lot worse than last. So far, the Flames are proving us wrong—just as Nazem Kadri suggested they would.
Let’s take a look at the Flames’ playoff chances this year based on various models. In my mind, it’s very slim; I (still) expect them to finish in the bottom five in the Western Conference and bottom seven across the entire NHL.
Let’s look at what the models have to say! Note that these odds were taken at the start of the season and all the models would have updated already with the Flames’ season-opening streak. One example of such changes will be shown next.
MoneyPuck
MoneyPuck gave the Flames a 22.5% chance of making the playoffs as of opening night, finishing the season with 83.9 points. While the percentage is much better than I would have thought, it’s also the seventh-worst in their model. Unsurprisingly, the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks are below them in the Pacific Division, and the Columbus Blue Jackets and Chicago Blackhawks are below them in the West. MoneyPuck also has the Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals below the Flames.
They give the Flames a 7.9% chance of making the second round of the playoffs—something the Flames have only done once since 2004. They also give the Flames a 2.9% chance of making the third round and a 1.1% chance of making the final. Not great, but not unexpected.
However, since the Flames started the season 4–0–0, MoneyPuck now gives them a 50.6% chance of making the playoffs. This is good for 17th in the league, but still sixth in the Pacific Division. A four-game winning streak to start the season definitely pushed the odds up substantially, but the MoneyPuck model is clearly bullish on the team.
HockeyReference
HockeyReference was less kind to the Flames. Points-wise, they have the Flames in a similar position with 81, but they have the Flames with no chance of making the playoffs. Their simulation has the Vancouver Canucks winning the Pacific Division while the Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, and Vegas Golden Knights also make the playoffs.
The other four playoff seeds come from the Central Division: the Dallas Stars win the division, while the Winnipeg Jets, Colorado Avalanche, and Nashville Predators also make the playoffs.
HockeyReference’s simulation has the Flames finishing fifth in the Pacific and bottom ten in the league. This is good for the conditions on their first-round pick from the Sean Monahan trade, but they’d still need the Florida Panthers to do well this year.
The Athletic
There are a couple of predictions we can look at here, and we’ll start with Dom Luszczyszyn’s. Dom has the Flames finishing with 79.5 points—the lowest we’ve seen so far—and a 7% chance of making the playoffs. This puts them fifth-last in the NHL, ahead of only the Sharks, Blue Jackets, Ducks, and Blackhawks. The consistency so far is everyone expects them to be better than the Sharks and Ducks in the Pacific.
Dom also gives the Flames a slim 1% chance of making the Division Final—second round—of the playoffs, but no further. With such low odds of even making the playoffs, 1% feels generous. You can check out Dom’s full rankings here:
The Athletic also ran a poll with various questions and summed up the results. The poll gave the Flames no chance of making the playoffs, finishing third-last in the West ahead of only the Sharks and Ducks. Across the NHL, the Blackhawks and Blue Jackets were the only other teams with no chance at the playoffs, putting the Flames firmly in the bottom five of the league.
The Flames are consistently low in all models
The natural conclusion is most models have the Flames in the bottom five to 10 of the NHL this year, finishing with around 80 points. They’re not expected to be good. Yet, to start the year, the Flames are undefeated and first in the NHL. They’ve looked good in the process, too.
It’s still early, but the impression General Manager Craig Conroy has given the world so far is the Flames are committed to a rebuild. The trading of star talent while replacing them with lesser players on short-term contracts is a good indication of this.
Will the Flames continue their hot play on the ice? Only time will tell. If they do, it’s possible the Flames will try to accelerate the rebuild much like their last one after making the second round in 2015. That certainly wouldn’t hurt their playoff chances this year!
