Regression works in mysterious ways, and factors into many different aspects of hockey. Some call it dumb luck, but a very simple way of explaining regression would be that most things have an average. Goals assists, points, injuries, fights, and hits all have averages in a player’s career.
If Player X plays thirteen seasons in the NHL and has 500 points in 1000 games, his point-per-game average would be half a point per game or 41 points in a full 82-game season. If Player X then has an insane year where he scores 150 points in those 82 games, one would expect that he would regress back to the mean the following season, because of his average in points prior. This would be an example of negative regression.
Using goal and point totals, as well as shooting percentage, we are going to compare 2023-24 totals from players to their career averages. In doing this, we can see opportunities for positive and negative regression. It’s important to note that nothing here is finite. Predictions based on past performance are just that – predictions. No model would have put Coleman scoring 30 goals last year, or Huberdeau regressing further. With that out of the way, let’s dive into our regression candidates.
Positive regression candidates (improving production expected)
| Player | 2023-24 Goal/Point Total | 2023-24 Shooting % | Career Average Goal/Point Total | Career Average Shooting % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 12G/52P | 8.4% | 22G/71P | 12.2% |
Well, it’s quite funny to see Huberdeau as the lone player in the positive regression category. Will we ever see him get above 55 points in a Calgary Flames uniform? Regression would say yes. He has to reach 60 points in one of these seasons, right? Huberdeau did improve in the back half of the 2023-24 season after a disastrous start. I’ll say he’ll surpass 60 points in 2024-25. Not a hard bar to reach and now we hope he clears it.
Negative regression candidates (decreasing production expected)
| Player | 2023-24 Goal/Point Total | 2023-24 Shooting % | Career Average Goal/Point Total | Career Average Shooting % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Coleman | 30G/54P | 15.7% | 20G/38P | 10.4% |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 31G/59P | 17.3% | 24G/47P | 14.2% |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 20G/52P | 9.6% | 9G/36P | 5.7% |
Three players who had massive years and for the most part were unexpected.
Starting off with Coleman, who scored 30 goals for the first time in his career. He also blew his previous career high of 38 points out of the water. I would expect some heavy regression back to career averages here. Coleman shot 4.3% above his career average last season. Let’s say 24 goals and 42 points in 2024-25?
Sharangovich was brought in with minimal expectations after a rough year with New Jersey in 2022-23. He surpassed his career highs in goals and points. I wouldn’t expect the same regression that I do with Coleman but Sharangovich is likely to regress. He shot 3.1% above his career average. I think he can still float around the 25-30 goal mark, but likely closer to 25 than 30. Let’s predict a 27-goal, 53-point season for Sharangovich in 2024-25. After signing a big extension in the summer, let’s hope last year wasn’t a flash in the pan.
Weegar’s previous career high in goals was 8 before he left that in the dust with an even 20 in 2023-24. Weegar is not a great candidate to predict using career averages, as he is a late bloomer. He only cemented himself as an elite defenceman in the last five years. I wouldn’t expect him to hit 20 goals again, as he shot nearly double his career average. However, I think he can still absolutely float around the 50 point mark. A lot will depend if he stays on PP1, or if the team gives those duties to Tyson Barrie or Daniil Miromanov. Let’s predict Weegar to score 13 goals and 49 points in 2024-25.
Projected to finish with similar production
| Player | 2023-24 Goal/Point Total | 2023-24 Shooting % | Career Average Goal/Point Total | Career Average Shooting % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Andersson | 9G/39P | 5.7% | 7G/36P | 4.4% |
| Mikael Backlund | 15G/39P | 7.2% | 17G/44P | 8.3% |
| Nazem Kadri | 29G/75P | 10.5% | 25G/58P | 10.9% |
| Andrei Kuzmenko | 14G/25P* | 24.1% | 33G/64P | 23.1% |
* Note: Kuzmenko’s 2023-24 totals only include his time with the Flames, as they are close to the averages he set in 2022-23 with the Canucks. His beginning of the season with Vancouver in 2023-24 was nowhere close to his averages. With only two years of NHL experience, it’s hard to predict Kuzmenko fully.
Too early to tell
Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil
Entering their second NHL season, you never know how it will go. Some players take a major step forward and some take a major step back. We will see what the case will be for these two. With a contract looming for Connor Zary, there’s added incentive to have a strong second season.
