The Calgary Flames are at a pivotal moment, facing an uncertain future after a series of changes that have shaken up the roster. The 2023-24 season was a harsh wake-up call, revealing cracks in the team’s structure and forcing management to reconsider their direction.
As they navigate a season filled with challenges and opportunities, questions loom about whether the Flames are truly rebuilding or still holding on to a vision of competitiveness.
The Flames’ 2023-24 Performance Breakdown
The 2023-24 season marked a turning point for the Calgary Flames. Struggling to stay relevant, they ended with 79 points, reflecting a disappointing campaign that led to significant changes. General Manager Craig Conroy began to trade away key players, initiating a sell-off that was inevitable given the team’s trajectory.
Craig Conroy’s moves didn’t necessarily earn rave reviews, but the trades were a necessity. Markstrom, Mangiapane, and others were shipped out, signaling the start of a long-overdue roster overhaul. The departures have stripped the Flames of valuable assets, but the rebuild has begun.
Projections for the 2024-25 Season
Despite the clear intent to revamp the roster, projections for the Flames remain perplexingly high. The team’s 81-point finish last season doesn’t suggest a major rebound, yet the Flames aren’t expected to completely collapse either.
Current projections indicate that the Flames have a 45 percent chance of finishing in the league’s bottom five and an 80 percent chance of finishing in the bottom 10. Despite the weakened roster, Calgary may still hover around the middle, which could hinder efforts to land a top draft pick.
The Jonathan Huberdeau Conundrum
Jonathan Huberdeau’s massive $10.5 million contract, signed before his performance dipped, continues to be a central issue for Calgary. At 31 years old, Huberdeau is now a highly paid winger whose production has not lived up to expectations.
Huberdeau’s contract extends until 2031, and while his play has picked up somewhat, with a 66-point pace in the second half of last season, his value remains far below the $10.5 million mark. His projected value is closer to $5 million per season, creating a financial burden for the Flames.
After struggling with only 15 points in the first 35 games, Huberdeau showed promise with 37 points in his last 46 games of the 2023-24 season. His power play numbers were particularly encouraging, ranking among the top 20 in the league with 8.2 points per 60 minutes. This improvement raises hopes that he may still be able to contribute significantly in the coming season.
The Dustin Wolf Dilemma
Calgary’s goaltending situation is far from stable, with Dustin Wolf poised to take over following Jacob Markstrom’s departure. However, Wolf’s performance in his 17 NHL games last season left much to be desired, with an .893 save percentage and a worrying 7.7 goals allowed above expected.
Despite his rocky NHL debut, Wolf has an impressive resume, including multiple Goalie of the Year awards and an MVP honor in the AHL. The Flames are betting on Wolf to develop into their long-term solution in net, but it remains to be seen if he can handle the pressure at the NHL level.
Strength in Defense: Weegar and Andersson
While Calgary’s roster has been gutted, the defensive pairing of MacKenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson remains a bright spot. Both players are crucial to the team’s defense and have consistently delivered solid performances.
Weegar is the Flames’ top defender, known for his puck-handling abilities and contributions in all three zones. In the final 10 games of the 2023-24 season, Weegar showed his offensive potential by helping Calgary score 21.3 goals per 60 minutes on the power play. His all-around skills will be vital for the Flames this season.
Although Andersson remains an integral part of the defense, his results have dipped compared to previous seasons. The Flames may need to adjust their defensive pairings to maximize Andersson’s strengths and minimize his defensive liabilities, possibly pairing him with Daniil Miromanov.
Winger Depth: A Rare Strength
Surprisingly, Calgary’s winger depth stands out as one of their strengths. Every winger in the top nine grades out as above average, giving the Flames flexibility in their lineup. This depth prevents the Flames from being completely uncompetitive, even as they rebuild.
Blake Coleman had a career season in 2023-24, scoring 30 goals and 54 points. His leadership and ability to handle tough minutes make him a valuable asset, especially for a team in transition like the Flames.
Connor Zary, who tied Coleman with 2.08 points per 60 at five-on-five, had a strong rookie season. The 22-year-old’s ability to drive play suggests he could take a bigger role this season, providing Calgary with some much-needed offensive firepower.
Goaltending: The Flames’ Weakest Link
No aspect of the Flames’ roster is as troubling as their goaltending. With Wolf and Dan Vladar as the main options, Calgary faces serious questions about their ability to keep pucks out of the net.
Over the past three seasons, Vladar has posted an .894 save percentage and allowed 20 goals above expected. These numbers rank him among the league’s worst backups, and he has yet to show that he can be a reliable option.
The Team’s Overall Outlook
Calgary’s current roster positions them as a team in flux, with no clear path to success. While their winger depth and defensive pairings provide some hope, significant issues remain in goaltending and offensive star power.
It’s worth checking the team’s betting odds this season at Ontario sportsbooks and compare them to the projections from NHL experts. Despite the challenges, Calgary’s future is uncertain enough that surprises could happen, especially with the right pieces falling into place.
Best and Worst-Case Scenarios
The Flames’ season could go in two very different directions. In the best case, players like Wolf and Zary take big steps forward, Huberdeau finds his form, and the team remains competitive. In the worst case, they finish near the bottom, but not low enough to secure a top draft pick.
Playoff Hopes
If everything goes right, Calgary could surprise people by making a push for the playoffs. However, given the roster’s weaknesses, especially in net, that outcome seems unlikely.
Collapse and Rebuild
A full collapse would allow the Flames to secure a top pick in the draft, setting the stage for a more structured rebuild. Given the team’s trajectory, this may be the more realistic and ultimately beneficial outcome.
Calgary enters the 2024-25 season in a state of uncertainty. Will they embrace the rebuild fully, or will they get stuck in the middle of the standings again? The season will reveal whether the Flames can find their way out of mediocrity and start building toward a brighter future.
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