It’s that time of year again. Leaves are turning, temperatures are dropping, and hockey is back. This means so is fantasy hockey and the most important days of the year: fantasy draft days.
A missed draft pick can spell trouble throughout the season. The last thing you want is to spend weeks contemplating that one player you’re attached to because you picked him too high while he costs you wins and points along the way.
Predicting future performance with expected goals
One way to avoid that problem is with expected goals, which help separate the hot streaks from the legitimate goal scorers. Expected goals is one of the best stats available for predicting future performance.
A player with a high goals total on low expected goals is much less likely to repeat that performance than one whose goals total closely matches his expected goals. There are exceptions for extremely talented goal scorers like Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid, but in general, expected goals are a useful predictive measure.
Combined with a stat like shooting percentage—which is often an indicator of luck as much as skill for players—it can especially clarify who had a hot hand and who is a serious scoring threat.
MacKenzie Weegar
MacKenzie Weegar has become the highlight of the Matthew Tkachuk–Jonathan Huberdeau blockbuster trade for Flames fans. His steady presence and positive attitude have won over Flames fans, and as a result, it pains me to write this. But the truth is, realistically, the offensive flair he showed in the 2023–24 season may have been a flash in the pan.
After consecutive seasons scoring less than expected, he exploded offensively with 20 goals, more than 10 more than expected. Although Weegar is a great player, expecting another 20-goal season could lead to some serious regret from fantasy team managers looking for offense from the backend.
More than likely, on a Flames team that’s not expected to be particularly good, he will regress to his typical scoring ability.
Jonathan Marchessault
Jonathan Marchessault is a legitimate offensive threat. In each of the past four seasons, he has outscored his expected total. But a few factors are working against a repeat of last season’s 42 goals.
One, his goals above expected spiked to a total of 12.2 in 2023–24. In the three preceding seasons, he averaged 2.94 goals above expected.
For another, his shooting percentage jumped over four percent from his previous three-years’ average. Expect Marchessault to be a worthwhile pickup again this year, but beware of drafting him based on last year’s performance alone.
Sam Reinhart
This is an interesting case. Sam Reinhart is a first-line caliber forward who experienced a serious breakout with the Florida Panthers in 2023–24, recording an incredible 57 goals. There is absolutely zero doubt he should be rostered in every league.
The question is, again, where is it appropriate to draft a player like this? His 57 goals was 24 higher than his previous total. The data shows he’s a strong goal scorer, but he’s coming off a season where he scored nearly 18 more goals than expected.
Importantly, that was a contract year for Reinhart. After signing a massive contract extension in the offseason, there will likely be a letdown. More often than not, players who have achieved ultimate financial security after a year of pressure. Expect regression back to his usual still-impressive scoring rate.
Frank Vatrano
Frank Vatrano had a breakout season in 2023–24. His shot is quite a laser beam, too. Still, the sudden increase in efficiency is suspicious.
After a 37-goal season, it could be tempting to take a flyer on the Anaheim Ducks winger. But considering the massive leap from an average of 2.6 goals above expected to 12.2, caution is advisable. A repeat of that total seems unlikely. Still a player who could be useful depth on a fantasy team, it would be a mistake to draft Vatrano if he doesn’t fall well below his current average draft position of 103.
Think twice before each pick
Fantasy hockey can easily become an emotional activity. Stats like expected goals can help avoid making mistakes based on favouritism or simply good vibes carrying over from last season. Before you pick, think twice!
The data used in this article is free from NaturalStatTrick. Consider looking over your planned picks on the site before your next draft. It can make the difference between an average and a championship team.
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