Craig Conroy has made a lot of smart moves since taking over as general manager of the Calgary Flames—a nice departure from previous management who seemed to do the exact opposite over and over again.
He’s won trades, drafted well, and placed smart bets on players with upside.
One of these decisions was the signing of Anthony Mantha to a one-year deal at a reasonable $3.5M. At the time of the signing, Mantha was presented as an offensively driven player with size, ideally, someone who could use his French-Canadian connection to unlock the dormant offence hibernating somewhere inside Jonathan Huberdeau‘s body.
The Flames are going to be a very bad team this year. However, they have enough players who need to play exclusively in the top-six that I don’t think it actually makes sense to staple Mantha to Huberdeau just for the sake of it. Instead, Mantha actually projects better as a third-line winger next to Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman.
I get that the whole point of Mantha’s signing was a pump and dump, and I don’t think that strategy is compromised with this lineup placement. Let me explain why.
Mantha’s actual player type
Mantha is most known for his back-to-back 50-goal season in junior, and being unfairly passed in the stacked 2013 draft before the Detroit Red Wings selected him 20th overall. In true Red Wings fashion, they let Mantha marinate in the AHL for a few seasons before promoting him to the NHL full-time.
Over his career, Mantha has averaged 24 goals per 82 games, though he rarely plays full seasons. He’s a bonafide NHL goal scorer and unless he pulls a James Neal (shudder), he will undoubtedly score at a 20+ goal pace with the Flames this season.
But that’s not all Mantha does. This is a very underrated two-way player who doesn’t just hold his own on the defensive end but actually thrives in it.
Here’s Mantha’s isolated player impact card from last season courtesy of Hockey-Viz.com.
As you can see, Mantha was awesome on the offensive side, generating 5% more xGF/60 than the average NHLer. But on the defensive side, he allowed 10% fewer xG/60 than the average NHLer.
This is really, really good. It’s rare to find players who are positive on offense and negative on defence with this model, and those who are, are among the best two-way players in the NHL. You may be asking: Was last year just a fluke though? Is he actually this good year-to-year and on all the different teams he’s played for?
The answer is yes.
For his whole career, Mantha has consistently been excellent on both ends of the ice. It doesn’t matter how many games he plays or what team he plays for, Mantha is a two-way monster.
Why is this valuable?
One of the most important takeaways here is not that Mantha is a good defensive player, which he is. Instead, the biggest thing is that Mantha is extremely effective at taking the puck from his end of the ice and moving it up to the offensive zone for his team.
Yes, getting a guy who can score goals on the power play is valuable to teams adding at the trade deadline, but you know what’s more valuable? Someone who can do that, AND defend his own zone by limiting chances against and moving the puck up the ice the other way.
If the goal is to boost Mantha’s value league-wide as much as possible ahead of the trade deadline, the way to do that in the best way is not to force-feed him offensive opportunities. It’s by allowing him to do exactly what Matthew Tkachuk did on Backlund’s wing in the 3M era. Dominate defensively, force the puck up the ice, and capitalize on those chances.
Maximizing asset value
To extract maximum value for this asset, the Flames need to utilize Mantha correctly. That means a permanent spot on PP1, but on a line with Backlund and Blake Coleman at 5v5.
Teams will pay more for that than a guy who can pop goals on the PP. Mantha is not just a James van Riemsdyk or a Mike Hoffman. He’s way, way better.
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