The Calgary Flames are currently slated to select nine times in the 2024 draft, including eight times in the first four rounds. With a boat load of picks, the Flames are no doubt increasing their odds of adding NHL level talent to their prospect pool.
Collecting picks is one thing however, actually hitting them is an entirely different ball game. There’s no debating that the Flames have had a rocky past at the draft. Sure there’s been some major hits over the years, but more often than not it seems like the organization comes out of the draft with little to nothing to show for it. So how often do the Flames actually hit on their draft picks? Let’s take a look.
Draft pick hit or miss criteria
First off, I’ll have to determine the criteria I’ll use to decide whether a draft pick is a hit or a miss. For a player to be considered a hit, they must have played at least 50 games with the Flames and sign a second contract in Calgary. If a player didn’t meet that criteria, I’ll chalk them up as a miss. For example, if a player logged over 50 games as a Flame during their entry-level deal, but didn’t sign a second contract in Calgary, they’re considered a miss.
This helps to eliminate certain players who signed a second contract with the Flames after their entry-level deal but only managed a few games. For example, Morgan Klimchuk signed a second contract with the Flames, but he played just one single game in Calgary before leaving the organization. That’s a clear miss in terms of a draft pick.
As well, I’ll only look at drafts between 2000 and 2018, as most players drafted after 2018 would still be on their entry-level deals.
Flames draft pick hit rate by round
First off, I’ll take a look at the Flames hit rate by round. Overall between 2000 and 2018, the Flames picked 18 times in the first round, 16 times in the second round, 17 times in the third round, 22 times in the fourth round, 19 times in the fifth round, 18 times in the sixth round, and 30 times in the seventh to ninth rounds. Here’s how they did in each round.
First round
Unsurprisingly, the Flames’ best hit rate comes in the first round as they’ve hit on 10 of 18 picks. On the surface these numbers seems okay, but when you consider the criteria it gets a bit more dicey. 50 games played after an entry-level deal is a pretty low bar for a first-round pick compared to the other rounds and the Flames are barely batting above .500 with that criteria.
Of the 18 first-round picks they made between 2000 and 2018, only two ended up playing 500 games as a Flame, Sean Monahan and Mikael Backlund. None of the 18 players picked were a point-per-game player as a Flame.
Second round
The second round is where it immediately gets ugly. First off the Flames only picked in the second round 16 times across 19 drafts, which seems low. We all know how much Darryl Sutter liked to trade second-round picks. Of the 16 picks they made, only three are considered hits. On top of that, all three were picked in a two-year span. Those players are Rasmus Andersson and Oliver Kylington in 2015, and Dillon Dube in 2016. Their 13 other picks either never signed, or played under 50 games after their entry-level deals ended.
Third round
The third round doesn’t get much better, as the Flames hit on just three of 17 third-rounders between 2000 and 2018. Those three players are Lance Bouma in 2008, Dustin Boyd in 2004, and Matthew Lombardi in 2002. In other words from 2009 to 2018, the Flames whiffed on every single third-round pick they made. Some notable misses are Keegan Kanzig, Jon Gillies, and Max Reinhart. To be fair, Adam Fox in 2016 was a slam dunk pick until he refused to sign.
Fourth round
The fourth round gets a tad better, with five hits across 22 picks. Considering how much of a lottery the draft is those aren’t terrible numbers, but they certainly aren’t great. The five hits are Martin Pospisil in 2018, Adam Ruzicka in 2017, Brett Kulak in 2012, T.J. Brodie in 2008, and of course Johnny Gaudreau in 2011. All things considered, it’s pretty impressive to get five NHL quality players out of the fourth round, especially a superstar in Gaudreau and a top-pairing defender in Brodie.
Fifth round
By this time in the draft, landing an NHL player is essentially a complete coin flip. As such, the Flames hit just once across 19 picks between 2000 and 2018. That one hit was Michael Ferland in 2010. Getting a player as impactful as Ferland in the fifth round is tidy work.
Missing on the 18 chances is not.
A particularly dreadful run came between 2000 and 2002 when the Flames made a ludicrous eight fifth-round picks in three years and not a single one played for the Flames. Honorable mention to Travis Moen who the Flames picked up in 2000 and carved out a nice NHL career, but never played in Calgary.
Sixth round
Two hits in 16 sixth-round picks is fine. There’s not much else you can hope for at this stage of the draft. The two hits are of course Andrew Mangiapane in 2015 as well as Adam Pardy in 2004. Mangiapane in particular was a tremendous pick. Finding a full-time top-nine winger and 40–50 point player in the sixth round is nearly unheard of. Shoutout to Matthew Phillips as well who was picked in the sixth round in 2016. He only managed three games in Calgary but has been a tremendous AHLer.
Seventh to ninth rounds
Up until 2005, the NHL had nine rounds in its draft format. As such, the Flames made 30 picks between the seventh and ninth rounds between 2000 and 2018. Late-round picks are a crapshoot, but landing just one of 30 picks is tough to swallow. The one hit was David Moss who was picked in 2001 and ended up playing 317 games as a Flame.
Flames draft pick hit rate by position
Now I’ll take a look at how often the Flames hit on their draft picks based on what position they pick. Are they experts at drafting certain positions? Let’s take a look.
Centre
The Flames have the best hit rate when drafting centres. Still though, of the 31 centres they drafted between 2000 and 2018, only eight were hits which isn’t great. Of the eight hits, five were drafted in the first two rounds.
The five hits early in the draft were Sam Bennett in 2014, Sean Monahan in 2013, Mark Jankowski in 2012, Mikael Backlund in 2007, and Dillon Dube in 2016. Even though Bennett and Jankowski both became regular NHLers in Calgary, it’s fair to say both were far from successful picks.
The other three centres the team hit on were Dustin Boyd in 2004, Matthew Lombardi in 2002 and Adam Ruzicka in 2017. Of the three, Lombardi is the only one who really made a mark in Calgary. Overall it’s not a surprise the Flames have been looking for a true number one centre for about two decades considering their record when drafting the position.
Defencemen
The Flames’ next best position in terms of hitting on their picks is on defence, but the numbers are still ugly. They hit on just seven of 38 picks between 2000 and 2018. The seven hits are Juuso Valimaki in 2016, Andersson in 2015, Kylington in 2015, Kulak in 2012, Brodie in 2008, Pardy in 2004, and Phaneuf in 2003.
As mentioned above, Fox was a great pick but hard to consider a hit when he never played in Calgary. Only landing seven NHL defencemen across 18 years is not exactly ideal, especially when you consider Valimaki and Kulak both played their best hockey after leaving Calgary.
Winger
Next up is the winger, where the Flames have drafted with a scattershot approach to very little luck. They drafted a whopping 58 wingers between 2000 and 2018, an average of three per draft, but landed on just ten of them. The hits are Pospisil in 2018, Tkachuk in 2016, Mangiapane in 2015, Sven Baertschi in 2013, Gaudreau in 2011, Ferland in 2010, Bouma in 2008, Eric Nystrom in 2002, and finally David Moss and Chuck Kobasew in 2001.
Some notable misses over the years are Morgan Klimchuk and Emile Poirier in the first round in 2013, Matt Pelech in the first round in 2005, and Kris Chucko in the first round in 2004. Baertschi and Nystrom both had periods as regulars in the Flames lineup, but both were both top-15 picks who failed to match their draft pedigree. The moral of the story is the Flames are dreadful at drafting wingers in the first round.
Goaltender
Without question, the Flames are the absolute worst at drafting goaltenders. The organization drafted 13 goalies across 19 drafts between 2000 and 2018. Not a single one played over 50 games in Calgary and signed a contract after their entry-level deal. Players like Joni Ortio, Leland Irving, Jon Gillies, and Curtis McElhinney played some games in Calgary, but never established themselves as full-time NHL goaltenders with the Flames.
The biggest misses were Brent Krahn 9th overall in 2000, Irving 26th overall in 2006, and Tyler Parsons and Mason McDonald who were both picked in the second round in 2016 and 2014 respectively.
Flames draft pick hit rate by general manager
Lastly for fun, let’s see how each General Manager has fared at the draft in Calgary since the turn of the century. The Flames employed four different general managers between 2000 and 2018, each with differing results at the draft.
Craig Button- Button’s time in Calgary was short, but boy was it bad. Button made 32 selections between 2000 and 2002, and hit on just four of them. Those four hits were Moss in the seventh, Kobasew in the first, Lombardi in the third, and Nystrom in the first. Reminder that we’re using incredibly lenient criteria here as well. Nystrom at 10th overall was overall a bad pick given the draft slot even if he did become a regular NHLer in Calgary.
Button’s most notable miss was of course Krahn at 9th overall in 2000. Between the 2001 and 2002 drafts, the Flames made a ridiculous 23 selections. Of those 23 picks, only six played games for the Flames and only four played over 50 games in Calgary.
Darryl Sutter- To absolutely no one’s surprise, Sutter grades out as the worst drafter of the bunch. With an obsession with drafting refrigerators from the WHL, Sutter regularly whiffed on nearly every pick he made in his eight years in charge of the draft. Here’s a fun one. Between the 2005 and 2006 drafts, the Flames made 16 selections. Of those 16 picks not a single one played even 20 games as a Flame. That’s the type of drafting that sets a franchise back years.
After eight drafts, his only major hits were Backlund in the first round in 2007 and Brodie in the fourth round in 2008. Honorable mention to Ferland in 2010 and Phaneuf in 2003 as well. All said, Sutter landed on just seven of his 58 picks made across eight drafts, and only two players ended up with over 250 games as a Flame.
Jay Feaster- Feaster was only in charge of three drafts in Calgary, but he either hit home runs or completely whiffed. His most notable hits were of course Gaudreau in the fourth round in 2011, and Monahan sixth overall in 2013. Outside of those two, Feaster really struggled. In particular he completely botched the Flames first post-Iginla draft in 2013. After Monahan he selected the only two players to not play at least 10 NHL games from the entire 2013 first round in Klimchuk and Poirier. After Monahan, the next seven picks Feaster made in 2013 played a combined eight games in Calgary.
His other three players considered hits under this criteria were Baertschi, Jankowski, and Kulak. Both Baertschi and Jankowski played regular NHL minutes in Calgary, but were considered busts given their draft spot. Feaster infamously claimed Jankowski would be “the best player in the draft” after reaching on him in 2012. That of course did not happen.
Brad Treliving- Lastly, Treliving had the best hit rate of any Calgary Flames general manager between 2000 and 2018 and nine hits across 30 picks. Unfortunately most of those hits came early in his tenure. Treliving’s most notable hits were Mangiapane, Andersson and Kylington in 2015, as well as Tkachuk and Dube in 2016. Unfortunately the three other drafts he was in charge of between 2014 and 2018 were complete misses across the board.
In particular the 2014 draft was one of the worst in franchise history. Of the teams six selections, Bennett was the only one to ever play NHL games. Even Bennett was a gigantic whiff considering his draft slot at fourth overall. As well between the 2017 and 2018 drafts the Flames made 10 selections and just a few years later Pospisil is the only player still in the organization.
The numbers haven’t been great
Whether it’s by round or by position, the Flames haven’t had great success at the NHL draft. No matter how you look at it, the Flames have struggled to find full-time NHL players at the draft since the turn of the century. Hopefully the story change under Craig Conroy.
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