We are finally nearing the end of the 2023–24 Calgary Flames season. There are only two games left, Tuesday against the Vancouver Canucks, and Thursday against the San Jose Sharks. After the Flames were eliminated from playoff contention many games ago, these remaining games can feel useless.
But, they still have big ramifications for the future of the organization. At this point, losing games isn’t the end of the world. You can never ask your team to lose games, but given their position, it’s not the end of the world if they continue to lose games and improve their draft position and draft lottery odds.
The Flames are guaranteed to have the 8th–10th best lottery odds
Let’s take a look at the draft lottery table. So far, the bottom four teams have clinched their places, with the San Jose Sharks holding the best odds. The Buffalo Sabres beat the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday night to clinch 11th overall. From this table, we can see that the Flames will have a 6.0% chance, 5.0%, or 3.5% chance at securing the first overall pick on draft lottery day:
| TEAM | DRAFT LOTTERY POSITION | GAMES PLAYED | POINTS | REGULATION WINS | FIRST OVERALL LOTTERY ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks* | 1st | 81 | 47 | 14 | 25.5% |
| Chicago Blackhawks* | 2nd | 80 | 51 | 17 | 13.5% |
| Anaheim Ducks* | 3rd | 81 | 57 | 20 | 11.5% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets* | 4th | 81 | 64 | 20 | 9.5% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 5th | 81 | 75 | 20 | 8.5% |
| Utah ______ | 6th | 81 | 75 | 27 | 7.5% |
| Ottawa Senators | 7th | 81 | 76 | 24 | 6.5% |
| Seattle Kraken | 8th | 80 | 79 | 27 | 6.0% |
| Calgary Flames | 9th | 80 | 79 | 31 | 5.0% |
| New Jersey Devils | 10th | 82 | 81 | 33 | 3.5% |
| Buffalo Sabres* | 11th | 82 | 84 | 33 | 3.0% |
What could happen in the Flames’ remaining games
Calgary has the regulation win tiebreaker over the Seattle Kraken, so the Kraken would need to finish with one more point than the Flames for Calgary to take eighth overall back. The Kraken play the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday, and the Minnesota Wild on Thursday.
The New Jersey Devils hold the regulation win tiebreaker on the Flames at the moment with 33. If the Flames secure fewer than three points in their last two games, New Jersey will retain the 10th position. If the Flames secure more than three points, they will fall to the 10th overall position.
In other words, if the Flames lose one of their last two games, they’ll have the 8th or 9th best odds, pending what the Seattle Kraken do. If they win one game and get at least a point in the other, they’ll have the 10th best odds.
