The Calgary Flames retool is officially underway with Elias Lindholm shipped out of town earlier this month and Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin likely to follow. With the Flames fully focused on remaining competitive while also getting younger, the time may come to start buying if the right player is available. In particular, General Manager Craig Conroy mentioned after shipping out Lindholm the team would be in the market for a sub-25-year-old centre.
With Lindholm gone and little to no depth at centre in the prospect pool, it’ll likely take a trade to reinforce the future of the Flames centre group. Enter: Casey Mittelstadt. The 25-year-old has popped up in trade rumours this past week and could be a perfect candidate to fill the Flames gap at centre for the present and future.
Who is Casey Mittelstadt
Mittelstadt is a left-shot natural centre who can also play on the wing. He’s currently listed at 6’1″, 195 pounds. He turned 25 in November and is in the final year of his current contract that pays him $2.5M.
Mittelstadt has had an interesting trajectory thus far in his career. Drafted eighth overall by the Sabres back in 2017, it took him a few years before he finally started showing flashes of what made him a top-10 pick. That said, he’s completely shaken the bust moniker over the past two seasons and continues to get better.
Here’s a quick scouting report courtesy of CapFriendly.com from October of this season.
Took a significant step forward in (22/23). At the beginning stages of contributing in a full time 2F role. Element is offense. Good stick and puck touch. Sees the ice in the offensive zone. Generally makes plays from the perimeter. Doesn’t provide a heavy interior game or lean on opponents on the wall, but when he gets time and space he will move to high danger areas to make plays at the net.
Capfriendly.com on Casey Mittelstadt
As mentioned, Mittelstadt struggled to establish himself in the NHL as a top-six forward until the past two seasons. Here’s how his career numbers look so far since being drafted.
| Season | Team | League | Games Played | Goals | Assists | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017–18 | University of Minnesota | NCAA | 34 | 11 | 19 | 30 |
| Buffalo Sabres | NHL | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| 2018–19 | Buffalo Sabres | NHL | 77 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| 2019–20 | Buffalo Sabres | NHL | 31 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Rochester Americans | AHL | 36 | 9 | 16 | 25 | |
| 2020–21 | Buffalo Sabres | NHL | 41 | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| 2021–22 | Buffalo Sabres | NHL | 40 | 6 | 13 | 19 |
| 2022–23 | Buffalo Sabres | NHL | 82 | 15 | 44 | 59 |
| 2023–24 | Buffalo Sabres | NHL | 52 | 12 | 31 | 43 |
Mittelstadt spent one season in the NCAA after being drafted, leading his team in points per game before making a terrific NHL debut with five points in six games the same year. From there, Mittelstadt’s development hit a bit of a rut in part due to a slew of injuries as he failed to eclipse 25 points until last season.
The 2022–23 season was a big-time breakout year for Mittelstadt as he finally showed his potential and hit career highs in goals, assists and points and started producing like a top-six talent. He’s continued that progress into this season as he’s set to set new career highs across the board in 2023–24.
Mittelstadt’s production this season
As mentioned, Mittelstadt’s breakout 2022–23 season wasn’t a bluff as he’s carried that success into this season and is currently in the midst of the best season of his young career. Through 51 games, Mittelstadt has posted 12 goals and 42 points and currently leads the Sabres in scoring.
He’s also earned a much larger role on the Sabres this year, playing a career-high 18:30 minutes a night and regularly skating as a centre in the Sabres’ top-six and on their second power play unit.
All numbers below are courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.com, taken at 5v5, score- and venue-adjusted.
| Statistic | Raw Value | Team Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 12 | 6 |
| Assists | 31 | 1 |
| Points | 43 | 1 |
| 5v5 Points | 32 | 1 |
| Assists/60 | 1.83 | 1 |
It’s fair to say Mittelstadt has been the Sabres best forward this season. In a year in which many of their top players have struggled, Mittelstadt has continued to chug along and put up career-best numbers.
In particular, he’s been a dangerous playmaker for the Sabres this season down the middle of the ice, leading Sabres forwards in assists, primary assists and assists/60. His 31 assists also rank 26th league-wide among forwards ahead of centres like Nazem Kadri, Anze Kopitar, and Mark Scheifele.
His assists/60 rate of 1.83 is even more impressive, showcasing just how effective he’s been as a playmaker at even strength this season. So far this season among forwards with at least 500 minutes at 5v5 he ranks sixth in the league for assists per 60. It’s not a stretch to say he’s been one of the league’s best playmaking centres.
He’s also earned the full trust of his coaches this year as a key player for the Sabres as he’s currently leading Buffalo forwards in even strength ice time per game and is second in overall ice time per game behind only Alex Tuch. He’s also tops on the team in total power play ice time this season.
If we look at his overall impacts this season courtesy of HockeyViz.com, he’s been surprisingly impressive at limiting chances in his own zone.
Digging a little deeper, Mittelstadt currently ranks second on the Sabres for CA/60, third for xGA/60, and third for HDCA/60. Not only is he leading his team in points, he’s also shutting it down at the other end.
Mittelstadt’s contract status
Mittelstadt is currently in the final year of a three-year, $7.5 million contract which he signed with the Sabres back in 2021. One of the main reasons his name has begun floating around in trade rumours is reportedly because the Sabres and Mittelstadt’s camp have made almost no progress on contract talks. Elliotte Friedman poured fuel on the fire last week when he said “If you’re not going to pay him, you almost have to move him.”
He’s currently slated to become a restricted free agent at the end of the season, meaning if the Flames did acquire him he would still be under team control and couldn’t just bolt in a couple of months.
If the Flames did acquire him, they could either go the short-term bridge path or lock him down long-term and into his late 20s. Given his production, age, and similar comparable deals signed in recent years, Mittelstadt is likely looking at an AAV right around $5.75–$6.5 million a year. All said, a very affordable number for a 25-year-old 2C who has the potential to be a true 1C one day.
Noah Hanifin for Casey Mittelstadt?
If the Flames were to acquire Mittelstadt, it wouldn’t be cheap; 25-year-old top-six centres don’t grow on trees. The good news is the Sabres and Flames could be perfect trade partners. Currently, the Sabres are in the market for a veteran top-four defenceman to insulate their young stars in Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power.
It just so happens the Flames are in the market for a U25 centre and have a pending unrestricted free agent top-four defenceman looking to play down south again. Could a potential mega hockey deal that sees Noah Hanifin head to Buffalo and Mittelstadt head to Calgary make sense?
Both players are reportedly unlikely to come to terms with their current teams and both are reportedly being shopped. The Flames need centres and the Sabres need defencemen. It seems like a match made in heaven and the rare one-for-one swap that benefits both sides.
A player worth looking into
There’s no doubt about it, Mittelstadt is the exact type of player this Flames team needs right now after moving Lindholm. With a perfect trade candidate in Hanifin that could be used in a potential swap, it makes a whole lot of sense to explore the idea of bringing in Mittelstadt and gauging where the Sabres are at.
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