The Calgary Flames are kind of exactly where we thought they’d be at the beginning of the season: sitting around a playoff spot. With the likelihood of trades for unsigned unrestricted free agents (we hope), we can still expect change to occur no matter where the Flames stand ahead of the March 8 trade deadline.
The 2022–23 Nashville Predators are a good roadmap for the team if they want to follow that mould this season. At the All-Star break last year, the Predators were three points out of a playoff spot with a record of 24–18–6.
Trades made during the season
The Preds began selling assets by trading Nino Niederreiter ($4.0M x 2) to the Winnipeg Jets in exchange for a 2024 second-round pick.
A day later, perhaps the craziest trade in the modern era was completed. The Predators sent Tanner Jeannot ($800K x 1, RFA) to the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Cal Foote, a 2023 3rd, 2023 4th, 2023 5th, 2024 2nd, and 2025 1st. Just typing this out is crazy. Tampa basically sent over an entire draft class. But in being a team spending every penny possible, Jeannot at $800K was one of few players they could comfortably fit. So, they had to overpay.
Two days later, the Preds sent Mattias Ekholm (at 4% retained) and a 2024 sixth-rounder to the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for Tyson Barrie ($4.5M x 2), prospect Reid Schaefer, a 2023 first-rounder, and a 2024 fourth-rounder. Ekholm is a fantastic defenceman and (unfortunately) exactly what the Oilers needed. He still has two years remaining on his contract past the 2023–24 season at an AAV of $6.25M. So, Nashville does have that $250k cap retention on the books for a few years.
A day later, the Preds sent Mikael Granlund ($5M x 3) to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for a 2023 second-rounder. Not only were the Preds able to get rid of Granlund’s salary, but they also received a high asset to do so. Can you say fleece? This trade ultimately led to the Penguins firing Ron Hextall and Brian Burke in the 2023 offseason.
The following offseason
The Preds made a few more interesting moves during the summer. One of those was trading Ryan Johansen at 50% retained to the Colorado Avalanche for Alex Galchenyuk, who they did not sign. That move looks pretty good right now, as Johansen has struggled in Colorado, and the Preds freed up $4M in cap space this year, and another $4M next year.
They also got rid of another centre when they bought out Matt Duchene. Duchene had three more years on his deal that paid him an AAV of $8.0M. This was a bit of a surprising move, as Duchene had 56 points in 71 games during the 2022–23 season. However, the buyout cost isn’t that bad. The Preds have a cap hit of $2.56M in 2023–24, $5.56M in 2024–25, $6.56M in 2025–26, and then $1.56M in each of 2026–27, 2027–28, and 2028–29.
In free agency, the Preds signed the following deals:
- Ryan O’Reilly: $4.5M AAV x 4 years
- Gustav Nyquist: $3.185M AAV x 2 years
- Luke Schenn: $2.75M x 3 years
O’Reilly has been a fantastic fit with the Predators with 38 points in 44 games. Nyquist has also had a superb under-the-radar season putting up 34 points in 44 games.
The Predators in the present
As I am writing this, the Predators hold the last wild card spot in the Western Conference. The biggest thing that stands out for me is the cap spent. The Preds are spending a cap hit of $75.7M, which is fourth last in the league, ahead of the Ducks ($75.3M), Sabres ($74.8M), and the Blackhawks ($74.7M). Spending approximately $7.7M less than the salary cap and holding a playoff spot is quite unique and a tidy piece of work.
The most important aspect of a team is their salary cap. If you look at the Predators cap sheet, they’ve been able to accrue so much financial freedom in the past calendar year. This also means there are fewer long-term cap commitments that could potentially logjam you in the future. Besides the contracts of Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg, the Preds don’t have any long-term commitments that look troubling.
Lessons for the Flames
Cap space is extremely valuable. This was mentioned by Flames General Manager Craig Conroy after sending Nikita Zadorov to the Vancouver Canucks at the end of November.
You can remain competitive while also securing assets for the future. Ultimately, the Preds did miss the playoffs by three points, which is exactly where they sat at the All-Star break. So, removing the likes of Ekholm, Niederreiter, Jeannot, and Granlund didn’t impact the team at all in terms of standings points.
By moving out all of these contracts, the Preds were able to secure financial flexibility for the future, as well as get a bunch of future draft capital. At the same time, the Preds also opened roster spots for youngsters like Luke Evangelista, Philip Tomasino, and Juuso Parssinen to show what they can be at the NHL level.
If the Flames still plan to move their pending UFAs and remain competitive, the Predators provide a great roadmap. I will note that the Preds do have three elite players in Juuse Saros, Roman Josi, and Filip Forsberg, which makes the ability to stay competitive that much easier. The Flames have good players, but I wouldn’t put them into the elite category.
