To tank or not to tank, that has been the major discussion in Calgary for nearly a year now. With the Calgary Flames kicking off the 2023–24 season in disappointing fashion after a disastrous 2022–23 campaign, the topic of tanking versus going for it has been a hot topic among the fanbase. With Calgary once again on the outside looking in and at times closer to a top five pick than the playoffs this season, there have been calls to complete a full-out tank this season to add a top draft pick to the organization.
However, some have argued that tanking doesn’t lead to success and the Flames should stay the course and push for a wild card spot. Given that the Flames are at a fork in the road right now, it’s worth taking a look back at how often having top 10 homegrown picks on your roster leads to success in the NHL. Let’s break it down.
Top 10 regular season teams in 2022-23
First off let’s take a look at the top 10 teams at the end of the 2022–23 regular season and how many top 10 homegrown picks each team had on their roster last season. In rare cases where a player was selected by a team in the top 10, left, and returned later in their career I won’t count them. For example, Luke Schenn in Toronto.
Overall there’s a pretty clear trend here at first glance. Of the top 10 teams in the regular season last year, eight of them had at least one homegrown top 10 pick on their roster, and six of them had at least three. On top of that, all six teams who had at least three top 10 picks on their team had multiple top five picks on their roster.
The leaders were of course Edmonton with a whopping seven top 10 picks on their roster, including four top five picks. New Jersey, Toronto, Colorado, and Los Angeles all finished tied in second with four total, coincidentally including three top five picks each.
It’s also worth noting that Carolina only had one top 10 pick on their roster but did have Seth Jarvis who was selected 12th overall and Martin Necas who was selected 13th overall. The Flames didn’t have a single homegrown talent picked inside the top 15 picks on their roster last year.
The only outliers are the Vegas Golden Knights who have only picked in the top 10 once since their inception, back in 2017. The other is the Boston Bruins who have built their roster through incredibly strong drafting in the later rounds.
This paints a pretty clear picture. Unless you can draft as well as the Bruins have and find franchise cornerstones at the end of the first round or into the second and third rounds of the draft, the key to success is building your roster through high draft picks. Teams like Toronto, Edmonton, and Colorado are regularly at the top of the NHL standings with top 10 homegrown picks leading the way. For reference, the Flames didn’t have a single homegrown top 10 draft pick on their roster last year.
Top 10 picks on Stanley Cup Champions
Next up I’ll take a look at how often the eventual Stanley Cup winner each season has homegrown top 10 picks on their roster. As mentioned above, some portions of the fan base believe having high draft picks on the roster isn’t needed for playoff success, or tanking doesn’t lead to success. Let’s find out.
Again it’s pretty clear right away that having top 10 or top 5 picks on your roster is a pretty common trend among eventual Stanley Cup-winning teams. A whopping 14 of the last 16 cup champions have had at least one top five pick on their roster. The only outliers are of course Vegas who as mentioned above has only been in the league for a few years, and the Detroit Red Wings all the way back in 2007. Other than those two teams, every single Cup-winning team has had at least one top five pick on their roster.
In total, 10 of the last 16 champions have had multiple top five picks on their roster, the only exceptions being Vegas in 2023 and Detroit in 2007 who had none and St. Louis in 2019, Los Angeles in both 2012 and 2014, and Boston in 2010 who only had one. Every other champion has had multiple top five picks on their roster en route to winning the Cup.
Anyone who argues that tanking doesn’t lead to success or gaining high draft picks doesn’t help you win needs to take a look at the rosters and key contributors for recent cup champions. Whether it’s the Avalanche with Nathan Mackinnon, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, Bowen Byram, and Gabe Landeskog, the Lightning with Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, the Penguins with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Marc-Andre Fleury, or the Chicago Blackhawks with Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, nearly every single Cup champion from the past 16 years has been led by players they selected in the top 10 of the NHL draft.
Across the past 16 seasons, the Flames have made a grand total of three picks inside the top 10, and one inside the top four. During that time span they won a total of two playoff rounds in 16 years. On top of that, none of those players are still on their roster. You do the math.
The case for tanking
Is tanking fun for anyone? Most certainly not. However, if you were to ask any Colorado Avalanche fan if they would go through a few years of pain again in order to draft the core of a Stanley Cup-winning juggernaut every single person would say they’d gladly do it all over gain. The fact is, success in the NHL is increasingly driven by elite talent, and the best way to get elite talent is through top 10 draft picks. If the Flames want to finally become a model of success in the NHL and start winning more than two playoff rounds every 15 years, tanking is the way to go.
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