After a hot run in November that saw the Calgary Flames climb almost completely out of the giant hole they dug themselves into in October, the Flames started a 13-game stretch that can only be described as in one word: brutal.
Going from November 24 until December 18, the Flames’ schedule looks like this:
- Nov. 24: @ Dallas Stars
- Nov. 25: @ Colorado Avalanche
- Nov. 27: vs Vegas Golden Knights
- Nov. 30: vs Dallas Stars
- Dec. 2: vs Vancouver Canucks
- Dec. 5: vs Minnesota Wild
- Dec. 7: vs Carolina Hurricanes
- Dec. 9: vs New Jersey Devils
- Dec. 11: @ Colorado Avalanche
- Dec. 12: @ Vegas Golden Knights
- Dec. 14: @ Minnesota Wild
- Dec. 16: vs Tampa Bay Lightning
- Dec. 18: vs Florida Panthers
This 13-game set includes nine games against current playoff teams, and the remaining four are the Wild (who are 4–1 under new coach John Hynes), the Lightning, and the Devils.
For a team looking to truly understand what they’re made of and what decisions they should make to steer the franchise forward through the next decade, this is exactly the type of schedule you want to have in the first half of the season.
The Flames are now past the halfway point of this stretch playing their seventh game last night, and are currently sporting a positive record.
Flames record so far
So far through the first seven games of this stretch, the Flames are 4–3–0 with wins against Dallas (x2), Vegas, and Carolina. They’ve lost to the Avalanche (on the second half of a back-to-back), Vancouver, and Minnesota as well.
All things considered, this is a very positive sign for a team without a real identity right now, and they’ve put up points in the standings despite trailing for the vast majority of their games. The Flames have shown serious resiliency and a will to battle back, something that good teams are able to do.
The next step is starting games on time and driving things for the majority of the night, rather than playing catchup more often than not. Still, to be net-positive against this calibre of opponents is very encouraging for those hoping the Flames will contend for a playoff spot this season.
Looking at Calgary’s analytical numbers
Breaking down their play, the Flames have been a top-third team over this period of time when looking at the whole league. Stats are courtesy of NaturalStatTrick.
Looking at pure 5v5 values first, this shows how the Flames are doing irrespective of score across their past seven games.
| 5v5 | CF% | SCF% | HDCF% | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Value | 53.5 | 53.38 | 52.99 | 52.76 |
| League Rank | 8 | 10 | 12 | 10 |
Across the board, the Flames are above water and generally driving more shot attempts. Upon first glance, this is positive news! The team is shooting more than their opponents, creating more scoring chances, more high-danger chances, and more expected goals.
However, adding a bit of context here, we see that the Flames are only doing this because they’ve had to play from behind so much, and other teams are likely just sitting back a bit more due to having the lead.
Here are the same stats but adjusted for score and venue. This takes into account what the score was at all times, and adds a correction to account for leading and trailing teams.
| 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted | CF% | SCF% | HDCF% | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Value | 49.55 | 50.07 | 49.42 | 49.30 |
| League Rank | 14 | 17 | 21 | 19 |
Now, it’s not such a rosy picture. The Flames are essentially underwater across the board and rank in the bottom half of the league. While the raw values showed they were pushing play, this adjustment shows that was only due to them being down on the scoreboard.
This is less encouraging because although comeback wins are fun and bring momentum to the locker room, it’s not a long-term recipe for success and the Flames will need to be better at taking and holding leads if they want to keep climbing the standings.
What’s next for Calgary
The tough stretch only gets tougher as the Flames will wrap up their home stand against the Devils tomorrow. After that, no more home-ice advantage for the next three games against the Avalanche, Golden Knights, and Wild. Hopefully, they can finish off the home stand on a positive note before hitting the road.
If they can get out of this 13-game stretch with a positive record, it bodes extremely well for the rest of the season. If not, there could be serious changes coming sooner rather than later.
